Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-10-31 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-1	-1	-2	0	0	0	-2
Rep	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
4	2	2

Analysis

Well the off year elections of 2009 are almost here and with that I feel it is time for my final political projections before the votes are cast this coming Tuesday.

Virginia: I believe it is safe to say that this race is in the bag for Bob McDonald and the Republicans. McDonald has a solid lead in the polls and President Obama has did not seem to offer much if any aid to Deed's stuggling campign. I think this result is also a predictible on concerning that Virginia has had two Democratic govenors, and in my opinion, is ready for a switch back to the GOP. It pleases me to see this red-purple state move alittle back to the right.

New Jersey: This is certainly going to be the most constested and tight race of the whole season. In my view, Christie has a good shot at defeating Corzine but it really could go either way. Espicialy with third party candidate Doggett in the race. However, to see a GOPer doing this well this late in the game in a NJ race is encouraging. Its usually comfortibly blue at this point. In any event I'm going to be bold and call this one for the Republicans.

New York's 23rd Congressional Distict: With the collapse of Scozzafava's campign and the RNC finally endorse the real conservative in this race I believe that Doug Hoffman will win this GOP leaning district. Hoffman and Owens have been in a tight race with support in the upper 30's while Scozzafava remained in the high teens or low 20's. Now that she has departed from the race I think Hoffman will gain a majority of her supporters and seal the deal.

There are two other special elections for the House but I think both are in safely blue districts and as such I will call them for the Democratic candidates. However, I feel that VA, NJ, and NY-23 are going to be Republican victories.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: CR (--MO) 2009-11-03 @ 22:37:13
Victory!!!!!!!!!! And man did the GOP need a couple of good wins. Rally GOP rally! Last Edit: 2009-11-03 @ 22:39:08

By: auburntiger (I-FL) 2009-11-03 @ 22:44:43
Ok...I'll eat crow now. I gotta be honest, I never thought they would pull it off until this morning I had a gut feeling this morning NJ would pull it off. Should have listened to my gut this morning and changed my prediction before I had to eat crow! Oh well.

By: CR (--MO) 2009-11-04 @ 00:32:32
Beat that crow tastes mighty fine though! I have to say I'm really impressed tonight by out victories in Virginia and New Jersey. We've reclaimed some GOP territory and made an inroad into a blue state. The fact that we've seen such a massive turn around in both states that voted for Obama last year, especially in New Jersey is amazing. McDonnell and Christie did great jobs campigning on taxes, spending, job creation, energy, and smaller government. That's the stuff! Now I am suprised by our lose in New York 23, but only to a degree. The shock is actually that the polls got it wrong. I thought sure that Hoffman would pull it off. However, it is important to remember that all House races are local elections. There was no primary in this contest for the GOP and the state/national party put up a completely unacceptible liberal RINO in Scozzafava. The fact that she endorsed the Democrat Owens is proof enough that we did not need her in DC. As a principled conservative Republican I'd rather have the Democrat there. But I think that the fact that Scozzafava stayed on the battle, that Hoffman entered the race late, that Hoffman is not a very good candidate in terms of campigning to being with, that Scozzafava endorsed the Democrat, and that her name was still on the ballot (she got 6%) really hurt us up there. This district should be able to swing back to the GOP next year after we have a proper primary and more time to invest against this blue dog Owens. Plus he'll have a voting record in Congress by then so we can give the voters more of a choice based on the issues. So while the lose in New York is saddening the victories in New Jersey and Virginia are great news for the Republicans and conservatives. We march on to 2010.

By: auburntiger (I-FL) 2009-11-04 @ 09:01:11
YES it DOES! War Eagle to the New Jersey GOP and Chris Christie

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-06-10 @ 20:31:45
Chris Christie- The one term wonder.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	10	3	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	5	3	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	4	3	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	10	1	158	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	6	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	233	17	T	153
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T	103
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	534/609	307/609	841/1218	69.0%

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