Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-10-15 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	1
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	-1
Rep	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
2	1	1

Analysis

As for NJ, I see Corzine winning narrowly due to the independent candidate in the race. As for VA, I see a GOP victory as Deeds has ran a weak campaign overall.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	6	9	99	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	1	1	73	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	3	1	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	41/56	96/112	85.7%	3	14	265	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	6	3	94	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	14/37	48/74	64.9%	3	2	265	T	456
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	19	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	31/56	83/112	74.1%	1	6	404	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	1	6	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	6	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	31	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	15/33	48/66	72.7%	4	3	207	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	2	0	93	T	312
2004 President	54/56	20/56	74/112	66.1%	6	1	1527	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	409/430	225/430	634/860	73.7%

Links

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