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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-27 Version:26
Prediction Map
* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 74)
Analysis
Final governor prediction map...50% means its a wrap for me not % candidate gets...
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 25 This is my election prediction for governorships, I will not have time to update again so I listed everything as 50% meaning I am sure this is my prediction. Version: 24 In this area the individual state races and local issues have helped the DEMS except in the midwest Great Lakes where the rust belt drags the DEMs down... Version: 23 Watch Oregon and Ohio as races are narrowing Version: 22 Just some % changes to indicate my confidence level- 30% tossup, 40% lean 50% greater is favored.... Version: 21 A few state changes and a lot of ratings changes...DEM have leads in traditional DEM states to pick up a few but GOP leads in their traditional states PLUS swing states especially in Midwest to pickup more...very fluid-what about those SC polls that show DEM within a few points.. Version: 20 A shifting sea of sand is what the governor races are which is a good idea where the frustration level of the American is at the present. The governor races will see the greatest shift in party control in history.. this map changes CA and RI which should shift a few more times... Version: 19 A weird fluctuating map by any means... Version: 18 Updating mostly my % and how I feel about the elections...here in MN Dayton might be leading but it is Horner the Independent that is getting the good news...endorsement by well liked liberal GOP former governor Carlson is an example. Version: 17 New polls show DEMS increasing or creating leads in New England and coming back in Oregon. Still very fluid and on trakc for most ever Governor's races that have new face in the new year... it will be over 20 Version: 16 Some fluidity showing as some states solidify and some weaken...Dems prospects have improved in a number of states and weakened further in others... Version: 15 This is how I feel the race is today and my % are for my confidence level not what % I think candidates will get. Version: 14 Well the turmoil keeps on going....FLorida may not elect the most likely to win GOP and continue the trend of making it more difficult BUT the wind is at their backs and many more states will be GOP in November election results...over 30 with 20 new governor faces-some repeats like Iowa.. Version: 13 some changes in % and California back to Dems....lots of personnel changes with more women to govern states, Oklahoma will have its first woman governor and so will NM as both aprty candidates are women...great.. Version: 12 A few % changes and one flip Florida- I have been talking to my relatives down there and they are beginning to feel that a change is needed in party leadership...they are indpendents and are voting for Sink...I believe in general that women candidates will fare better this time due to a certain mistrust of male leadership among some parts of the public...just a gut feeling watching some polling results...maybe an undercurrent of the election. Version: 11 Just my gut feeling at the moment with negative movement on the west coast but Colorado imploding for McGinnis and Connecticut trending even more Democratic.. Version: 10 Okay this is all over the place based on some local polling, comments from locals that I know and some gut feelings...but overall the 2012 map after reapportionment should generate another 10 bulge for Reps...if they do not win house in 2010 they may well in 2012 on reapportionment and who controls the process. Version: 9 Lots of changes as this is a fluid arena for change. Most governorships ever will change hands in November. Very amazing. Version: 8 Lots of changes and highly fluid. I believe the Dems are moving ahead in several areas like COnnecticut and MN. Palin's endorsement has had a small backlash here as MN like to keep outsiders out of politics...plus the MN supreme court ruled against Pawlenty on his budget shenanigans. His own appointees voted against him. So budget woes will increase independent vote at expense of Repblican...will be close though. I think Ohio and Georgia are Democratic squeakers. Version: 7 A few % changes and moving Arizona back into the Rep column along with Georgia, although both are in single digits. Version: 6 Lots of surprises to come in the governor races. I feel SInk is largely unknown and is barley behind McCollum who has a less than popular view from some Floridians. Likewise I feel that the Republicans will take California based on the economy and Brown's previous record. While I feel Barnes will eek out win in Georgia. The midwest will likely be a see of Republican vitories except in MN unless Dayton wins the primary-ugh! Version: 5 Some states have firmed up like NY with Cuomo or become more uncertain like California. However, it is only APril and much will change but like many others the greatest change in November in % terms will be the statehouses. Version: 4 Lots of changes as public ire leads to switches in most governorships.... Version: 3 Well, the forgotten page-I honestly think this is where the money is given the redistricting that will happen in 2011 for 2012 elections. And we will have the greatest number of governorships turning over since I was born in the first half of the 20th century! Version: 2 Bloodletting across the board and deep implications for reapportionment! Version: 1 The main frustration will be handed out to state executives as people change their leaders in the false hope of generating some positive change. The lasting impact will be to aggrevate the 2010 census reapportionment results with interesting lineups created for loses in states gaining or losing population representations.
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