Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-31 Version:10

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	24
Ind	2
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	6
Rep	21
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+5	+5	-3	-10	-13	4	2	6	-8
Rep	+3	+9	+12	0	-6	-6	6	6	12	+6
Ind	0	+2	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
58	35	23

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 9

I'm shooting in the dark with these predictions, so don't be surprised if many of them are inaccurate.

Version: 5

Sink leads Scott by 1.3%.

Version: 3

I imputted gubernatorial polls on states whose primary winners are already known or are heavily favored. Oregon, Ohio, Maryland, and California are the closest contests. Other contests I have as tossups I have not analyzed yet.

Version: 2

Just for shits and giggles, let's say Tancredo becomes Governor.

Version: 1

Just a guess. I haven't developed a formula like I have for the Senate predictions.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	31/35	28/35	59/70	84.3%	6	11	69	T	305
2022 Governor	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%	5	17	130	T	272
2020 President	55/56	44/56	99/112	88.4%	1	57	48	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	1	55	137	T	423
2016 President	50/56	31/56	81/112	72.3%	3	460	194	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	20/34	52/68	76.5%	1	539	35	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	8/12	17/24	70.8%	1	487	14	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	273	8	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	30	0	21	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	17/36	45/72	62.5%	22	0	145	T	300
2010 Senate	33/37	22/37	55/74	74.3%	87	1	133	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	23/37	58/74	78.4%	10	2	74	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	109	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	28	1	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	12	8	117	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	3	110	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	9/52	6/52	15/104	14.4%	2	-	213	T	271
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	3	78	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	39	1	31	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	17/36	52/72	72.2%	17	9	107	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	547/639	384/639	931/1278	72.8%