Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:280

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	14
Rep	22
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	10
Rep	21
Ind	1
Tos	5
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+5	+5	-1	-9	-10	6	3	9	-5
Rep	+1	+9	+10	0	-6	-6	6	6	12	+4
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
42	34	8

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 221

Endorsements:

Gov: Stickland, Pat Quinn, Jerry Brown, Chafee, Sink, Denish, Cuomo, Hickenlooper, Mitchell, Barret, and Kitzaber

US Sen: Hodes, Coons, Lee Fisher, Sestak, Reid, Bennet, and Crist.

Version: 138

GOP can't translate voter anger to election victory

Version: 134

Governor races close races are CO,MN,and RI
D's net gain 2 seats
Senate races closes races NH,MO,and OH
D's net lose 2 seats

Version: 114

The governor races and Senate races will mirror each other CO,OH,NH,PA are tossups and the Dems will barely win those states.

Predicting now a Democrat gain of 1 seat in the Gov
Senate GOP gain of 3 seats.

Version: 107

26-24

Version: 105

states to watch OH,IA,WI,MI,MN,RI,and CO

Version: 104

D's win CO,OH,and WI
GOP wins FL,NV,and IA

Version: 103

Strickland,Barrett,Quinn,Cuomo and Brown wins their respective races.

Version: 97

Tossups OH,NV,and CO

Version: 94

Tea party does well but not as well that you might think

55D-45R
26D24R

Version: 92

25-25 tie with CO or OH the tiebreaker

Version: 89

Version: 88

Once the primary is over PA,MI,Ca will fall in the democratic column. The tossups are MA,CO,OH,and NV.

25-25 with MA as the tiebreaker

Version: 80

26D-24R
Most Competetve CA,CO,FL,IA,MI,MN,NV,OH,PA,WI

Version: 78

26D-24R

Version: 77

26D24R

Version: 73

Stuart Rothenberg gives too much weight on the Candidacy instead of partisan index of PA and MI, if Specter gets elected these states will follow. Culver will be the one that goes down in defeat in Nov.

Version: 72

We win OH,MI,PA,CO
Lose NV,and IA

Version: 70

Dems win via Strickland,Hickenlooper,Barrett
GOP wins via Sandoval,Corbett,and Hoekstra

Tossups: WI,OH,CA,CO,MI,PA,and NV

Version: 68

Tossups: IL,CO,OH,WI,PA,MI

Version: 64

Strickland, CO open and Sink fall to the GOP

Version: 63

WI,IL,and MA stay democratic
While CO and OH goes republican

Version: 38

ME,OH, and CO are tossups
Dems win OH but lose CO and NV.

Version: 26

R's pick up the open races in WY,FL,PA,MI
D's keep inc. Culver,Strickland,and Ritter

Wash in the Gov's mansion.

AZ doesn't go Democratic with Arpaio running

Version: 25

D's keep the industrial states
R's pickup the smaller states

Version: 23

26-24 GOP advantage

New Freshmen Governors
Arizona (Arpaio)
Colorado (McInnis)
Florida (McCollum)
Michigan (Hoestra)
Minnesota (Coleman)
Pennsylvania (Corbett)
Rhode Island (Chafee)
Texas (Hutchison)

California (Brown)
Mitchell (Maine)
Nevada (Goodman)
NY (Cuomo)
Wisconsin (Barrett)

Version: 19

GOP gain a seat or two

Version: 17

I see minimum losses in 2010
IA,CO, and perhaps OH goes Republican
Net lose a set or two.

Version: 13

Inverse of what we have today 26-24 GOP advantage

Version: 12

Inverse of the margins we see today 26-24 GOP advantage

Coleman,McInnis,Strickland should win their respective races

Realigning election
That's all I can forcast today.

Version: 10

R's pickup of 2 seats
R's win battleground states of WI and MI
D's win battleground states of PA and OH

The rest pretty much goes according to the national average polls.

AZ,CO, and WY gets split
Arpaio wins the primary and wins the governorship
Freudental doesn't retire and wins
McInnis beats Ritter

Version: 9

TU: FL,CO,OH,CT,RI

27-23Dem favored

Version: 8

Races to watch for
AZ Goddard
CO McInnis
IA Reps
MI Hoestra
MN Dayton
PA Dems
OH Strickland
WY Reps

Version: 7

OH,IA, CO go republican
MI,MN,ME,CT and PA are pure tossups

27-22-1 GOP advantage

Version: 6

27-22-1GOP adv

Version: 3

Republicans net pickup of 1 seat

Version: 2

Swing states FL and PA go republican
While CO, OH and MN go Democratic

The rest remains the same.

Version: 1

Republicans pick up big swing states like PA and IA
Dems pick up smaller states like CT,VT and AZ

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	25	22	108	T	115
2022 Senate	25/35	12/35	37/70	52.9%	271	0	298	T	305
2022 Governor	27/36	14/36	41/72	56.9%	281	0	265	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	11	41	48	T	118
2020 President	45/56	26/56	71/112	63.4%	443	5	670	T	684
2020 Senate	24/35	8/35	32/70	45.7%	339	3	422		423
2020 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	127	5	264	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	61	4	104	T	192
2018 Senate	28/35	15/35	43/70	61.4%	201	1	417	T	483
2018 Governor	29/36	13/36	42/72	58.3%	212	3	330	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	1	99	98	T	149
2016 President	47/56	20/56	67/112	59.8%	337	3	597	T	678
2016 Senate	26/34	12/34	38/68	55.9%	344	2	352	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	5/12	12/24	50.0%	127	3	164	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	72	0	57	T	112
2014 Senate	28/36	12/36	40/72	55.6%	435	0	337	T	382
2014 Governor	25/36	6/36	31/72	43.1%	402	0	293	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	19	1	98	T	153
2012 President	55/56	25/56	80/112	71.4%	291	1	681	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	171	1	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	4/11	15/22	68.2%	103	1	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	29/52	8/52	37/104	35.6%	116	-	121	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	18	186	12	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	15/37	49/74	66.2%	281	1	242	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	8/37	42/74	56.8%	280	1	230	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	26	40	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	29/56	81/112	72.3%	129	1	474	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	16/33	49/66	74.2%	95	1	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	39	3	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	47/52	20/52	67/104	64.4%	55	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	39/49	14/49	53/98	54.1%	23	-	36	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	8	24	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	117	0	20	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	114	0	10	T	312
2004 President	51/56	31/56	82/112	73.2%	167	1	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	833/994	407/994	1240/1988	62.4%