Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:10

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	13
Rep	23
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	12
Rep	23
Ind	1
Tos	1
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+6	+6	-3	-9	-12	4	3	7	-6
Rep	+3	+9	+12	0	-7	-7	6	5	11	+5
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	35	24

Analysis

Analysis based on 538.com's final forecast (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/governor).

Tossup means the frontrunner has less than 60% chances of winning. Lean means it has between 60% and 80%. Strong means it has over 80% chances of prevailing.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

New fivethirtyeight.com forecast : seems like a Vermont poll suddenly flipped Vermont from Lean R to Lean D.

Version: 1

Prediction based on Fivethirtyeight.com's gubernatorial forecasts.

Version History

Member Comments

By: AntonioV (D-CA) 2010-11-06 @ 17:20:53
Ok, so time for a restrospective comment (the merit/blame of course doesn't go to me, of course). "I" was wrong for Florida (though this time it's not Nate's fault : he updated his forecasts just before the predictions closed so I couldn't update mine, plus the race was close so it still makes sense), and Illinois. But that's only the emerged part of the iceberg, because Nate got some races pretty bad. Three-way races were particularly bad : Cutler did a lot better in Maine, Caprio ended up at the third place, and Tancredo got 7% less in CO wereas Maes did almost twice as predicted. Add to that MN, CT and VT, where Dayton, Malloy and Shumlin were expected to win by big margins and eventually came close to losing. Oregon was also closer than expected, though it doesn't see unreasonable. Most of those miscalls came from late surges that emerged in the very late race, but I remember Nate warned us that gubernatorial races usually end up closer than polls predicted, so that's fine. Still, if you add to that the fact most expected landslides were even bigger than projected (NY, AR, SD, NE, WY) and that gives me a pretty poor score...

By: AntonioV (D-CA) 2010-11-10 @ 15:21:45
Aproximative calculation of my score... Candidate ahead : 35/37 Correct percentage : 24/37 Global score : 59/74 (79.7%) While I did far better than in 2008, I wasn't using fivethrityeight at the time. Whith less than 80%, this is the worst 538-based prediction I've ever made. I feel particularly frustrated for Florida (besides the fact Scott won, if at least I had updated my prediction in time, my score would have been 82.4%).

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	33/35	26/35	59/70	84.3%	6	0	69	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	27/36	61/72	84.7%	6	0	51	T	272
2020 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	13	5	434	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	18/35	50/70	71.4%	8	3	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	5	10	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	4	35	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	14	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	28/36	60/72	83.3%	7	2	18	T	372
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	18	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	21/34	52/68	76.5%	18	0	35	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	6	0	67	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	27/36	61/72	84.7%	8	0	13	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	5	0	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	24	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	48/56	104/112	92.9%	15	0	13	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	11	0	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	2	31	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	44/52	23/52	67/104	64.4%	27	-	16	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	19	0	21	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	24/37	59/74	79.7%	10	0	59	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	12	92	T	103
2008 President	54/56	45/56	99/112	88.4%	9	0	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	27/33	60/66	90.9%	5	0	1	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	4/11	14/22	63.6%	1	5	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	696/751	496/751	1192/1502	79.4%