Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-08-03 Version:12

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	25
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	17
Ind	1
Tos	11
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+4	+4	-1	-11	-12	6	1	7	-8
Rep	+1	+11	+12	0	-5	-5	6	7	13	+7
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
56	33	23

Analysis

The 2010 Governors Race outcome.
Democrats are going to hold on to.
AR(Beebe-D)-Popular Incumbent.
CO(Hickenlooper-D)OPEN Seat-Strong DEM vs Weak GOP.
MD(O'Malley-D)-Mediocre DEM incumbent in Blue state.
MA(Patrick-D)-Mediocre DEM incumbent in Blue state.
NH(Lynch-D)-Popular DEM incumbent.
NY(Cuomo-D)-OPEN Seat- Top Tier DEM vs Weak GOP.
OH(Strickland-D)-Medicore DEM incumbent-swing state vs Mediocre GOP.
Republicans are going to hold onto.
AL(Bentley-R)-OPEN Seat in Red state.
AK(Parnell-R)-Red State incumbent.
AZ(Brewer-R)-immigration issue improved her popularity.
FL(Scott-R)-narrowly wins a 3 way race.
GA(Handel-R)-OPEN Seat in Red state.
ID(Otter-R)-Red State incumbent.
NE(Heineman-R)-Red State Incumbent.
NV(Sandoval-R)-OPEN Seat- Top Tier GOP vs Generic DEM.
SC(Haley-R)-OPEN Seat in Red State.
SD(Daugard-R)-OPEN seat in Red State.
TX(Perry-R)-Red State incumbent.
UT(Herbert-R)-Red State incumbent.
VT(Dubie-R)-OPEN Seat-Blue Stat Top Tier GOP vs Competitive DEM- strong Progressive 3rd party.
Democrats are going to pick up GOP seats in
CA-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Top tier DEM vs Mediocre GOP.
CT-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Generic DEM vs Generic GOP.
HI-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Top Tier DEM vs Generic GOP.
MN-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Top Tier DEM vs Mediocre GOP.
RI-Chaffee-I.
Republicans are going to pick up DEM seats in
IL-Unpopular DEM incumbent in Blue State. Quinn losing this year- will not be a bad idea- Brady will be a lameduck for 4 years. then Lisa Madigan runs in 2014- knocks Brady out.
IA- Popular GOP challenger-Unpopular DEM incumbent.
KS- OPEN Seat in Red State.
ME- OPEN Seat- strong progressive 3rd party.
MI- OPEN Seat-
NM-
OK
OR
PA
TN
WI
WY

+7R.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-10-28 @ 16:56:10
Dubie isn't gonna win. VT has a 50% plus one rule for Governor The winner of the general election, whether its Shumlin or Dubie, will likely get under 50%. Then, the vote will go to the heavily Democratic Legislature which will pick Shumlin.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	194	0	63	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	23/37	56/74	75.7%	12	91	106	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	19	56	T	103
2008 President	51/56	35/56	86/112	76.8%	1	51	324	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	22/33	55/66	83.3%	1	51	28	T	407
Aggregate Predictions	152/165	106/165	258/330	78.2%