PredictionsEndorse2011 Gubernatorial Predictions - KS21 (I-KS) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2011-04-06 Version:24

Prediction Map
KS21 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
KS21 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
3 |
4 |
50 |
Dem2
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Non46
 

Confidence States Won
3 |
4 |
50 |
Dem2
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 
Non46
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0000001120
Rep0000001120
Ind0000000000


Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 26

Everything is the same as last month except

WEST VIRGINIA (D)- Tomblin has opened up wide leads, nearly 20 points, over his opponents, both primary and general. The race moves to SAFE DEMOCRATIC.

SENATE NOTES-

MISSOURI (D)- Claire McCaskill seems to have fared pretty well, PPP still has her narrowly leading all opponents. Given that I thought this would be a lot worse than it is, I will keep it at TOSS-UP/DEMOCRATIC

MONTANA (D)- News week has a good article on Jon Tester.


Version: 25

APRIL 2011 GUBENATORIAL MAP

LOUISIANA (R)-

Jindal is safe, and whoever the sacraficial lamb on the Democratic side is will lose in a landslide. SAFE REPUBLICAN

MISSISSIPPI (R)-

Primary on the Republican side is up in the air. But without AG Hood or Fmr. Rep. Taylor, this seat is going to stay in GOP hands. Yet, with things not clear yet, LEANS REPUBLICAN

KENTUCKY (D)-

A rare case where a red-state Democrat has positive approval numbers and the GOP isn't going full out after him. But with the old Dixiecrat South getting more red all the time and Beshear not winning by 10 in any polls, LEANS DEMOCRATIC

WEST VIRGINIA (D)-

I don't see Tomblin having too much of a problem, but with a possible primary chalenge from Secretary of State Natallie Tennant and the GOP primary up in the air, LEANS DEMOCRATIC

2012 SENATE PREVIEW- COMPETETIVE RACES

MISSOURI (D)-

Claire McCaskill has gotten herself into hot water with the "Air Claire" incident. There is no denying this is a problem. Luckily for her, Jim Talent is not running and the GOP nominee will likely be a tea-party candidate, as of now, barring Rep. Akin jumping in the race, which would only further jeopardize McCaskill's bid to keep her seat. For now, with Obama looking good for re-election and the fact that she has not trailed one of her announced opponents yet, TOSS-UP/DEMOCRATIC

She is on shaky ground, and she is one of the most vulnerable incumbents. This time around, to hell with my theories, I will go by the polling data (but I will continue to discount Rasmussen polls for the garbage they are. At points, they may have to be used if no other pollster has polled within the past month, with the house effect added. I will exclude them when possible.)

MONTANA (D)-

With incumbent freshman Jon Tester deadlocked with Rep. Rehberg, this race seems headed again for the photo finish two times in a row. Two polls have been conducted by what I consider to be reliable sources. With one poll showing Tester ahead and the other Rehberg and both well withing the MoE, TOSS-UP

OHIO (D)-

Sherrod Brown's progressive populism may excite the Democratic base, the situation for Ohio Democrats is not good after last year's shutout, where every Democratic statewide incumbent was knocked off. Those same incumbents were elected in the same wave that put Brown into his Senate seat. But with the field of challengers in flux and no big-name recruits in, TOSS-UP/DEMOCRATIC

ARIZONA (R)-

This race revolves around one person- Gabrielle Giffords. Until she recovers enough to even entertain the idea, TOSS-UP/REPUBLICAN

NEVADA (R)-

With a Heller-Berkley matchup likely and no polling yet, only a pure TOSS-UP describes the situation.


Version: 6

I wish...


Version: 1

Here's hoping for AG Hood or Congressman Taylor to run...


Version History


Member Comments
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-06 @ 20:00:59 prediction Map
This is a very boring set of races...

 By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2011-04-07 @ 19:31:25 prediction Map
"This is a very boring set of races..."

Yeah.

Can we open the 2012 Senate predictions early, Dave!? :)

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2011-04-14 @ 14:24:17 prediction Map
He isn't gonna open the 2012 predictions until the GOP primaries are over, thats what he did last time.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-14 @ 18:46:39 prediction Map
We all need to e-mail him about that. The 2009 races were interesting.

This... ...isn't.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-14 @ 19:10:42 prediction Map
Main April update with analysis has been posted.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 1 338 23T684
P 2018 Senate 31/35 24/35 55/70 78.6% pie 5 2 67T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 27/36 60/72 83.3% pie 3 3 18T372
P 2016 President 47/56 26/56 73/112 65.2% pie 7 0 496T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 7 1 164T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 2 1 67T279
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 110 72T112
P 2014 Senate 29/36 22/36 51/72 70.8% pie 48 1 200T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 16/36 45/72 62.5% pie 25 1 145T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 5 2 1T153
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 28 0 47T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 27/33 59/66 89.4% pie 37 0 1343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 5 0 51T228
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 28 5 2T106
P 2010 Senate 37/37 30/37 67/74 90.5% pie 203 0 2T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 27/37 62/74 83.8% pie 146 0 17T312
Aggregate Predictions 441/484 326/484 767/968 79.2% pie



Back to 2011 Gubernatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved