Comments History
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hideVersion: 26
Everything is the same as last month except
WEST VIRGINIA (D)- Tomblin has opened up wide leads, nearly 20 points, over his opponents, both primary and general. The race moves to SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
SENATE NOTES-
MISSOURI (D)- Claire McCaskill seems to have fared pretty well, PPP still has her narrowly leading all opponents. Given that I thought this would be a lot worse than it is, I will keep it at TOSS-UP/DEMOCRATIC
MONTANA (D)- News week has a good article on Jon Tester.
Version: 25
APRIL 2011 GUBENATORIAL MAP
LOUISIANA (R)-
Jindal is safe, and whoever the sacraficial lamb on the Democratic side is will lose in a landslide. SAFE REPUBLICAN
MISSISSIPPI (R)-
Primary on the Republican side is up in the air. But without AG Hood or Fmr. Rep. Taylor, this seat is going to stay in GOP hands. Yet, with things not clear yet, LEANS REPUBLICAN
KENTUCKY (D)-
A rare case where a red-state Democrat has positive approval numbers and the GOP isn't going full out after him. But with the old Dixiecrat South getting more red all the time and Beshear not winning by 10 in any polls, LEANS DEMOCRATIC
WEST VIRGINIA (D)-
I don't see Tomblin having too much of a problem, but with a possible primary chalenge from Secretary of State Natallie Tennant and the GOP primary up in the air, LEANS DEMOCRATIC
2012 SENATE PREVIEW- COMPETETIVE RACES
MISSOURI (D)-
Claire McCaskill has gotten herself into hot water with the "Air Claire" incident. There is no denying this is a problem. Luckily for her, Jim Talent is not running and the GOP nominee will likely be a tea-party candidate, as of now, barring Rep. Akin jumping in the race, which would only further jeopardize McCaskill's bid to keep her seat. For now, with Obama looking good for re-election and the fact that she has not trailed one of her announced opponents yet, TOSS-UP/DEMOCRATIC
She is on shaky ground, and she is one of the most vulnerable incumbents. This time around, to hell with my theories, I will go by the polling data (but I will continue to discount Rasmussen polls for the garbage they are. At points, they may have to be used if no other pollster has polled within the past month, with the house effect added. I will exclude them when possible.)
MONTANA (D)-
With incumbent freshman Jon Tester deadlocked with Rep. Rehberg, this race seems headed again for the photo finish two times in a row. Two polls have been conducted by what I consider to be reliable sources. With one poll showing Tester ahead and the other Rehberg and both well withing the MoE, TOSS-UP
OHIO (D)-
Sherrod Brown's progressive populism may excite the Democratic base, the situation for Ohio Democrats is not good after last year's shutout, where every Democratic statewide incumbent was knocked off. Those same incumbents were elected in the same wave that put Brown into his Senate seat. But with the field of challengers in flux and no big-name recruits in, TOSS-UP/DEMOCRATIC
ARIZONA (R)-
This race revolves around one person- Gabrielle Giffords. Until she recovers enough to even entertain the idea, TOSS-UP/REPUBLICAN
NEVADA (R)-
With a Heller-Berkley matchup likely and no polling yet, only a pure TOSS-UP describes the situation.
Version: 6
I wish...
Version: 1
Here's hoping for AG Hood or Congressman Taylor to run...