PredictionsEndorse2011 Gubernatorial Predictions - KS21 (I-KS) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2011-04-14 Version:25

Prediction Map
KS21 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
KS21 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
3 |
4 |
50 |
Dem2
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Non46
 

Confidence States Won
3 |
4 |
50 |
Dem2
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 
Non46
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0000001120
Rep0000001120
Ind0000000000


Analysis

APRIL 2011 GUBENATORIAL MAP

LOUISIANA (R)-

Jindal is safe, and whoever the sacraficial lamb on the Democratic side is will lose in a landslide. SAFE REPUBLICAN

MISSISSIPPI (R)-

Primary on the Republican side is up in the air. But without AG Hood or Fmr. Rep. Taylor, this seat is going to stay in GOP hands. Yet, with things not clear yet, LEANS REPUBLICAN

KENTUCKY (D)-

A rare case where a red-state Democrat has positive approval numbers and the GOP isn't going full out after him. But with the old Dixiecrat South getting more red all the time and Beshear not winning by 10 in any polls, LEANS DEMOCRATIC

WEST VIRGINIA (D)-

I don't see Tomblin having too much of a problem, but with a possible primary chalenge from Secretary of State Natallie Tennant and the GOP primary up in the air, LEANS DEMOCRATIC

2012 SENATE PREVIEW- COMPETETIVE RACES

MISSOURI (D)-

Claire McCaskill has gotten herself into hot water with the "Air Claire" incident. There is no denying this is a problem. Luckily for her, Jim Talent is not running and the GOP nominee will likely be a tea-party candidate, as of now, barring Rep. Akin jumping in the race, which would only further jeopardize McCaskill's bid to keep her seat. For now, with Obama looking good for re-election and the fact that she has not trailed one of her announced opponents yet, TOSS-UP/DEMOCRATIC

She is on shaky ground, and she is one of the most vulnerable incumbents. This time around, to hell with my theories, I will go by the polling data (but I will continue to discount Rasmussen polls for the garbage they are. At points, they may have to be used if no other pollster has polled within the past month, with the house effect added. I will exclude them when possible.)

MONTANA (D)-

With incumbent freshman Jon Tester deadlocked with Rep. Rehberg, this race seems headed again for the photo finish two times in a row. Two polls have been conducted by what I consider to be reliable sources. With one poll showing Tester ahead and the other Rehberg and both well withing the MoE, TOSS-UP

OHIO (D)-

Sherrod Brown's progressive populism may excite the Democratic base, the situation for Ohio Democrats is not good after last year's shutout, where every Democratic statewide incumbent was knocked off. Those same incumbents were elected in the same wave that put Brown into his Senate seat. But with the field of challengers in flux and no big-name recruits in, TOSS-UP/DEMOCRATIC

ARIZONA (R)-

This race revolves around one person- Gabrielle Giffords. Until she recovers enough to even entertain the idea, TOSS-UP/REPUBLICAN

NEVADA (R)-

With a Heller-Berkley matchup likely and no polling yet, only a pure TOSS-UP describes the situation.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2011-04-15 @ 02:05:28 prediction Map
My constructive criticism: ;)

"Beshear not winning by 10 in any polls"

Aggregately, he's up 46-34. KY is a Dixiecratic state; it sends Republicans to Congress, but thats it. Dixiecrats have 7/8 state offices. Beshear will be fine.

I have WV as Safe Democrat. The winner of the Dem. primary wins the general. The WV Republicans have NOBODY!! I'm actually thinking about endorsing Tennant...

"the situation for Ohio Democrats is not good after last year's shutout, where every Democratic statewide incumbent was knocked off."

True, but Kasich has piss-poor approvals. He'll be a huge drag on the Republican nominee. The wave in OH last year scared me too, but the GOP looks like its blowing its opportunity there.

"but I will continue to discount Rasmussen polls for the garbage they are."

Well said :)

I'm glad Rasmussen hasn't done any MO Senate polls yet; that would be skewing the data from the other pollsters.

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2011-04-15 @ 09:03:56 prediction Map
A couple of points, Rasmussen was the one that predicted Marco Rubio to be the winner of the election and was the one that correctly Scott as the winner. I would agree with you on Ohio, that it is a must win state for the Dems, the others like MO and Florida aren't and rasmussen shouldn't be so miscounted.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-15 @ 18:05:23 prediction Map
Miles-

Kasich's approvals and Scott's have gone down considerably, I give you that. But I don't think that just because Ohio has cooled on conservatism that they're embracing liberalism. Someone like Rep. LaTourette or Rep. Tiberi could give Brown a run for his money.

I have a track record of not liking Democratic primary challengers that could be potential spoilers. :P

On Kentucky, Miles, those races weren't up in 2010. You could have said the same about Oklahoma or Arkansas back in 2009 as I did. I'm not betting on Southern Democrats pulling through as much as I once did.

Olawakandi-

All pollsters had Rubio ahead. Another pollster came out with polls showing Scott ahead on election day besides Rasmussen, so while they were not with the majority of polls, they weren't alone either.

When you have a thin 53-47 majority, every seat is of vital importance.

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-16 @ 19:46:09 prediction Map
At the moment everything is really too early to tell. And the presidential race will have a huge effect.

One thing is for sure, 2012 will be a big election year no matter how it turns out.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-16 @ 20:19:56 prediction Map
I'm making my predictions off of the margin that RCP has right now in a Huckabee-Obama race, Obama +2.6.

Again, you're right, it is too early, but some things are already taking shape.

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-16 @ 22:28:20 prediction Map
Well no doubt the future is certainly going to be based on today but you never know what curves you might encounter on the road. I too use RCP for a large portion of my political data. However, I am hopeful that Huckabee will not be a factor in 2012.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-19 @ 17:01:43 prediction Map
Huckabee is the GOP's best bet, in my opinion.

I actually met him when he came to Wichita on a book tour a month ago. He seemed thoughtful, not "nutty" like some other candidates that would rather focus on where Obama was born than his policies.

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-19 @ 23:23:57 prediction Map
Hummmm, we were told the same thing about McCain and that didn't work out so well last time.

Something about Huckabee just bothers me. I can't place my finger on it. I don't doubt his social conservatism but I don't like it when believers wear their faith on their sleeves so to speak. Its his dedication to fiscal discipline that troubles me. In short he reminds me of a used car salesman.

But again if that's the nominee then that is who I'll vote for. I don't think he'll run though because he's making too much money and just built a fancy new house in Florida he needs to pay off.

Last Edit: 2011-04-19 @ 23:24:30

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-20 @ 18:43:50 prediction Map
That year was as bad for the GOP as 2010 was for the Democrats. You could put up all the top-tier recruits you wanted (Sestak, Melancon, Conway, Carnahan, etc.), it didn't matter. They were going to lose. Reid and Bennet only survived because their opponents were a bit... ...odd.

I see your point...

But he's leading in most national polls. That's more than enough motivation if I were him. He's got a solid base of social conservatives, and he's not as alienating to people like me as other Republicans (but I doubt I'll be supporting anyone other than Obama, with the exception of Bloomberg if he runs as an independent, which is looking increasingly doubtful)...

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-20 @ 19:42:00 prediction Map
See I kinda feel like some of the social conservatives are his only base. I think fiscal conservatives, libertarians, and a good deal of the Tea Party are generally cool to him. The only reason he does well in the polls is name ID.

But its early yet and plenty of time for new blood to emerge. Just have to be patient I guess, lol.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-21 @ 16:53:09 prediction Map
Well, considering most of my conservative views fall under the "social" category, Huckabee appeals to me the most. My political leanings are the opposite of a libertarian's, so in that way, Huckabee appeals to me the most.

Gary Johnson is running. I wonder what Ron Paul is thinking about running now with another libertarian Republican running...

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-21 @ 19:36:38 prediction Map
I saw that today too. I have only read a handful of things about Gary Johnson but from what I've read he's someone I could get behind.

I probably fall somewhere in the middle of social conservatives and libertarians. Hence I'm a federalist. I'm confident someone will emerge as we get into the primaries and debates. Kindof excited to see where it all leads from here.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2011-04-23 @ 03:25:10 prediction Map
I'm just glad Johnson isn't running for Bingaman's open seat.

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-24 @ 11:46:46 prediction Map
I'm kind of glad about that myself because that means the way is open for Heather Wilson to run for the seat. Its a shame she lost the primary for the other open seat picked up by Udall in 2008 but then again maybe it worked out for the best for her. Now Peirce is back in his House seat and she could end up in the Senate. Works for me :)

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-26 @ 17:12:57 prediction Map
(shivers at the thought of Senator Wilson)

 By: SvenssonRS (I-WY) 2011-04-27 @ 15:22:20 prediction Map
Hi, KS. Just stopping by. ;)

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2011-04-27 @ 18:31:19 prediction Map
Stop by more often! lol

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-27 @ 18:50:21 prediction Map
^

 By: SvenssonRS (I-WY) 2011-05-01 @ 18:52:25 prediction Map
Yeah, sorry about that. I always forget there's a good medium for discussion in Predictions. >_>

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2011-05-01 @ 19:54:54 prediction Map
Yes, we're quit friendly over here! lol

Check the TL!!!! I have Freud ahead of Lummis!

Last Edit: 2011-05-01 @ 19:55:58

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-05-01 @ 20:05:43 prediction Map
I like it here better. This is civil, the forum is full of...

Miles, as always, the TL is great.

 By: SvenssonRS (I-WY) 2011-05-02 @ 01:18:02 prediction Map
Yeah, Miles, I checked. Needless to say, praise be to the lord. :D

And on a side-discussion for the hell of it, I'm looking forward to the special elections we'll be seeing this year. Anything to make what looks to be a spectacularly uneventful year more interesting to watch.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-05-06 @ 18:19:09 prediction Map
New map up.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 457
P 2018 Senate 31/35 24/35 55/70 78.6% pie 5 2 67T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 27/36 60/72 83.3% pie 3 3 18T372
P 2016 President 47/56 26/56 73/112 65.2% pie 7 0 496T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 7 1 164T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 2 1 67T279
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 110 72T112
P 2014 Senate 29/36 22/36 51/72 70.8% pie 48 1 200T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 16/36 45/72 62.5% pie 25 1 145T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 5 2 1T153
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 28 0 47T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 27/33 59/66 89.4% pie 37 0 1343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 5 0 51T228
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 28 5 2T106
P 2010 Senate 37/37 30/37 67/74 90.5% pie 203 0 2T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 27/37 62/74 83.8% pie 146 0 17T312
Aggregate Predictions 386/428 280/428 666/856 77.8% pie



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