PredictionsEndorse2011 Gubernatorial Predictions - CR (--MO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2011-03-08 Version:1

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
3 |
4 |
50 |
Dem2
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Non46
 

Confidence States Won
3 |
4 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Tos2
 
Non46
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0000001120
Rep0000001120
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 8)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
541
piepiepie

Analysis

Louisiana - Jindal seems about as safe as any candidate I can think of at this point.

Mississippi - Definite Republican tilt, I will be interested to see the results of the primary.

Kentucky - I don't know about this one. It will depend on who the GOP nominee is. This could be a potential pick opportunity for the Republicans but because I don't have a lot of information on the race I'll the give the incumbent governor the edge.

West Virginia - Pretty Democratic state on the local level like this and I doubt Manchin's replacement is in too much trouble. But again without a lot of information I'll keep it in the toss up column, for now anyway.


Member Comments
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-14 @ 18:45:43 prediction Map
Good to hear from you, CR!

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2011-04-15 @ 02:02:35 prediction Map
CR!!!!!!!!!!

I MISSED YOU MAN!!!!!!!!

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-16 @ 19:42:44 prediction Map
Hi guys! Yes I'm here for another election season, small as it may be. Of course my focus at the moment has been the slowly developing GOP primaries.

Still so good to see you guys KS and Miles :D

Last Edit: 2011-04-16 @ 19:43:06

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2011-04-17 @ 02:04:44 prediction Map
Who are you rooting for in the GOP primary, CR?

Here's a link to my timeline; its still ongoing! :)

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127788.0

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-17 @ 11:08:22 prediction Map
Thank you for the link Miles! I've tried to keep up because I always enjoy reading a good timeline that's well thought out :)

Ah, the primaries. At the moment I like much of the GOP base remain uncommitted. My plan is to wait and watch the debates. I'm going to keep an open mind and see whom I think the strongest contender of the bunch seems to be both in terms of conservatism and electability. To be honest none of the people I was really hoping for - Mike Pence, John Thune, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, or Bob McDonnell - are going to run. Other favorites just got elected in 2010 so they are far too new.

Out of the current field of potential candidates I'd have to say at the moment I am leaning towards Governor Tim Pawlenty. I'm also a fan of Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann. I don't know what to make of Donald Trump. Some of his past concerns me but I like his business sense and if he is sincere then he may be a possibility. I could live with Romney or Barbour if I had to. I don't like Gingrich or Huckabee.

I will, of course, vote for who ever the GOP nominee is.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-19 @ 17:04:09 prediction Map
Interesting...

Do you see Bachmann as a viable national candidate?

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-19 @ 19:50:37 prediction Map
Maybe and maybe not. Would really depend on how she chooses to frame her campaign. However, I think I'd be more interesting in what she'd bring to the GOP primaries and debates. She's force a number of potential candidates to answer questions on a number of conservative questions they may want to avoid otherwise.

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-05-05 @ 22:53:57 prediction Map
Looks like with the Governor's veto overriden, I'll be moving into the new 4th District here in Missouri.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-05-06 @ 18:13:37 prediction Map
I have lost a lot of respect for Cleaver over this...

I never liked Clay to begin with. This has been a disaster...

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-05-06 @ 23:35:56 prediction Map
Oh I'm quite pleased with the redistricting here in Missouri :) Clay is safe. Carnahan is gone. Cleaver is probably safe but they did add a number of eastern rural counties to his district which before was mostly just Jackson County. I will be switching from Blaine Luektemeyer to Vicky Hartzlar as my representative in the House. Very excited as I've never had a congresswoman before.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-05-07 @ 17:17:12 prediction Map
I want Russ to run for Lt. Gov. with Kinder going on a suicide mission against Nixon.

The Cleaver plan takes out some unfreindly areas in the south and puts in a lot of Clay in return, which overall benefits him. That's why he convinced local legislators to override Nixon's veto.

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-05-08 @ 11:43:50 prediction Map
Well Russ is welcome to run for every he likes. However, I think Kinder's run against Nixon is anything but suicide. The GOP has been on fire in Missouri and I think that Kinder has an good chance of beating of Nixon. Still early yet but he's a strong card for the GOP to play given he was really the only state-wide office elected Republican to survive the 2008 Democratic wave.

I did find it amusing to see Democrats in Jeff City step up to override Nixon's veto. But then again it was a tough situation for the Democrats so I don't blame them for trying to minimize their loses. GOP would do the same.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-05-09 @ 17:53:02 prediction Map
It was Cleaver that told some of the Democrats to override the veto...

"Eating or defeating your own is a form of sophisticated cannibalism"

Cleaver should be ashamed of himslef.

As for Kinder, we'll see. ;)

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2011-05-15 @ 01:05:37 prediction Map
MO won't be sending a white Democrat to the House.

...its turning into LA!

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-10-04 @ 22:26:55 prediction Map
Democrats win West Virginia governors race 50-47. A lot closer than I thought it would be. One race down, three to go.

 By: CR (--MO) 2011-10-24 @ 18:02:12 prediction Map
Jindal dominates in Louisiana.

Go Bobby!


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T153
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T103
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie


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