Election 2011 Gubernatorial Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2011-03-08 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		3 \|	4 \|	50 \|
Dem	2
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	46

Confidence States Won

		3 \|	4 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	2
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	46

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0
Rep	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 8)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
5	4	1

Analysis

Louisiana - Jindal seems about as safe as any candidate I can think of at this point.

Mississippi - Definite Republican tilt, I will be interested to see the results of the primary.

Kentucky - I don't know about this one. It will depend on who the GOP nominee is. This could be a potential pick opportunity for the Republicans but because I don't have a lot of information on the race I'll the give the incumbent governor the edge.

West Virginia - Pretty Democratic state on the local level like this and I doubt Manchin's replacement is in too much trouble. But again without a lot of information I'll keep it in the toss up column, for now anyway.

Member Comments

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-14 @ 18:45:43
Good to hear from you, CR!

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2011-04-15 @ 02:02:35
CR!!!!!!!!!! I MISSED YOU MAN!!!!!!!!

By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-16 @ 19:42:44
Hi guys! Yes I'm here for another election season, small as it may be. Of course my focus at the moment has been the slowly developing GOP primaries. Still so good to see you guys KS and Miles :D Last Edit: 2011-04-16 @ 19:43:06

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2011-04-17 @ 02:04:44
Who are you rooting for in the GOP primary, CR? Here's a link to my timeline; its still ongoing! :) http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127788.0

By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-17 @ 11:08:22
Thank you for the link Miles! I've tried to keep up because I always enjoy reading a good timeline that's well thought out :) Ah, the primaries. At the moment I like much of the GOP base remain uncommitted. My plan is to wait and watch the debates. I'm going to keep an open mind and see whom I think the strongest contender of the bunch seems to be both in terms of conservatism and electability. To be honest none of the people I was really hoping for - Mike Pence, John Thune, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, or Bob McDonnell - are going to run. Other favorites just got elected in 2010 so they are far too new. Out of the current field of potential candidates I'd have to say at the moment I am leaning towards Governor Tim Pawlenty. I'm also a fan of Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann. I don't know what to make of Donald Trump. Some of his past concerns me but I like his business sense and if he is sincere then he may be a possibility. I could live with Romney or Barbour if I had to. I don't like Gingrich or Huckabee. I will, of course, vote for who ever the GOP nominee is.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-04-19 @ 17:04:09
Interesting... Do you see Bachmann as a viable national candidate?

By: CR (--MO) 2011-04-19 @ 19:50:37
Maybe and maybe not. Would really depend on how she chooses to frame her campaign. However, I think I'd be more interesting in what she'd bring to the GOP primaries and debates. She's force a number of potential candidates to answer questions on a number of conservative questions they may want to avoid otherwise.

By: CR (--MO) 2011-05-05 @ 22:53:57
Looks like with the Governor's veto overriden, I'll be moving into the new 4th District here in Missouri.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-05-06 @ 18:13:37
I have lost a lot of respect for Cleaver over this... I never liked Clay to begin with. This has been a disaster...

By: CR (--MO) 2011-05-06 @ 23:35:56
Oh I'm quite pleased with the redistricting here in Missouri :) Clay is safe. Carnahan is gone. Cleaver is probably safe but they did add a number of eastern rural counties to his district which before was mostly just Jackson County. I will be switching from Blaine Luektemeyer to Vicky Hartzlar as my representative in the House. Very excited as I've never had a congresswoman before.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-05-07 @ 17:17:12
I want Russ to run for Lt. Gov. with Kinder going on a suicide mission against Nixon. The Cleaver plan takes out some unfreindly areas in the south and puts in a lot of Clay in return, which overall benefits him. That's why he convinced local legislators to override Nixon's veto.

By: CR (--MO) 2011-05-08 @ 11:43:50
Well Russ is welcome to run for every he likes. However, I think Kinder's run against Nixon is anything but suicide. The GOP has been on fire in Missouri and I think that Kinder has an good chance of beating of Nixon. Still early yet but he's a strong card for the GOP to play given he was really the only state-wide office elected Republican to survive the 2008 Democratic wave. I did find it amusing to see Democrats in Jeff City step up to override Nixon's veto. But then again it was a tough situation for the Democrats so I don't blame them for trying to minimize their loses. GOP would do the same.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-05-09 @ 17:53:02
It was Cleaver that told some of the Democrats to override the veto... "Eating or defeating your own is a form of sophisticated cannibalism" Cleaver should be ashamed of himslef. As for Kinder, we'll see. ;)

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2011-05-15 @ 01:05:37
MO won't be sending a white Democrat to the House. ...its turning into LA!

By: CR (--MO) 2011-10-04 @ 22:26:55
Democrats win West Virginia governors race 50-47. A lot closer than I thought it would be. One race down, three to go.

By: CR (--MO) 2011-10-24 @ 18:02:12
Jindal dominates in Louisiana. Go Bobby!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	10	3	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	5	3	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	4	3	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	10	1	158	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	6	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	233	17	T	153
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T	103
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	534/609	307/609	841/1218	69.0%

Links

	Gubernatorial Predictions - Most Recent
	Gubernatorial Predictions - Most Recent Comments
	Gubernatorial Predictions Home

Back to 2011 Gubernatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home