Election 2012 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-02 Version:11

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	5
Rep	6
Ind	0
Non	39

Confidence States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	4
Rep	4
Ind	0
Tos	3
Non	39

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	-3	-3	3	2	5	-3
Rep	0	+3	+3	0	0	0	2	1	3	+3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 8)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
17	9	8

Analysis

Update 11: Montana from D >40 to R >40.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 10

Update 11: New Hampshire from D >40% to R >50%.

Version: 9

Update 10:

New Hampshire from R >40% to D >40%.

Version: 8

Update 9: Washington from D >40% to D >50%.

Version: 7

Update 8: Washington from R >40% to D >40%.

Missouri from Strong to Lean.

Version: 6

Update 6: North Carolina from Tossup to Lean.

Version: 5

Update 5: North Carolina from Lean to Tossup.

Version: 4

Update 4: Washington from D >40% to R >40%.

Version: 3

Update 3: Washington from R >40% to D >40%.

Version: 2

Update 2: West Virginia from Lean to Strong.

Version: 1

GOP picks up Washington, Montana, North Carolina and New Hampshire.

In terms of tossups, the Democrats have the best chance of holding Washington State.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	5	2	246	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	23/34	55/68	80.9%	3	2	2	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	2	6	67	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	22/36	56/72	77.8%	10	2	99	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	17/36	47/72	65.3%	10	2	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	1	131	98	T	153
2012 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	38	4	314	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	17	2	164	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	8/11	17/22	77.3%	11	4	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	15/52	8/52	23/104	22.1%	4	-	184	T	231
Aggregate Predictions	264/328	172/328	436/656	66.5%