PredictionsEndorse2013 Gubernatorial Predictions - Scifiguy (I-VA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2013-10-17 Version:5

Prediction Map
Scifiguy MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Scifiguy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem1
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Non48
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem1
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 
Non48
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+1+1000000+1
Rep0000001010
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
422
piepiepie

Analysis

New Jersey: Christie (63%), Buono (36%), Other (1%)

Virginia: McAulliffe (47%), Cuccinelli (41%), Sarvis (10%), Other (1%)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 1

New Jersey: Poll Aggregate (60 R, 26 D, 1 O, 14 und)

NJ 2013 Gov Projection: (68 R, 32 D)

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Virginia: Poll Aggregate (41 D, 39 R, 1 O, 20 und)

VA 2013 Gov Projection: (51 D, 49 R)

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Note: In the Virginia Governor election, I have given a slight edge to the Republicans, given Virginia's history of electing the opposition party in its off-year elections. We'll see if this trend continues or not, I personally have my doubts given that Ken Cuccinelli as the GOP's candidate.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 53/56 37/56 90/112 80.4% pie 26 0 10T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 18/34 49/68 72.1% pie 17 1 120T
P 2016 Governor 10/12 7/12 17/24 70.8% pie 18 1 14T
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 15 8 8T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 58 1 21T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 19/36 49/72 68.1% pie 40 1 56T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 5 19 1T
P 2012 President 56/56 42/56 98/112 87.5% pie 90 0 182T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 22/33 53/66 80.3% pie 7 2 56T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 3 15 157T
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 25/52 71/104 68.3% pie 99 - 4
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 5 44 2T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 10 1 63T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 21/37 54/74 73.0% pie 10 1 130T
Aggregate Predictions 376/409 253/409 629/818 76.9% pie



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