Election 2013 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2013-10-24 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	1
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1
Rep	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

Virginia: Will be close, but I'm almost certain McAufliffe will win. Unsure whether to put at D>40% or D>50%. Sarvis will most likely get 4-7% of the vote, knocking down Cuccinelli's and McAuliffe's %.

New Jersey: 100% Certain Christie will win, predicting 59-40. Unsure whether or not to go R>60% or R>50%.

Version History

Member Comments

By: reyndani (I-WI) 2013-10-24 @ 21:26:41
Virginia: I am now absolutely sure McAuliffe will win, with what is now close to a 10 point lead in many polls. Also polls have shown consistency ever since early September. Confidence: Lean --> Strong Overall I'm expecting McAuliffe to get something like 50-51% of the vote on November 5th. New Jersey: Polls show Christie very near or hitting 60% WITH undecideds. Decided to move this to >60% for my prediction. Otherwise everything is the same.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	3	1	205	T	305
2022 Governor	32/36	27/36	59/72	81.9%	3	1	88	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	66	48	T	118
2020 President	52/56	46/56	98/112	87.5%	4	6	74	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	27/35	60/70	85.7%	5	4	2	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	3	6	147	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	4	9	130	T	192
2018 Senate	34/35	27/35	61/70	87.1%	5	1	1	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	27/36	59/72	81.9%	4	3	38	T	372
2016 President	50/56	32/56	82/112	73.2%	13	1	149	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	23/34	55/68	80.9%	16	1	2	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	11	0	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	6	0	8	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	29	2	42	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	24	2	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	5	2	17	T	153
Aggregate Predictions	386/428	292/428	678/856	79.2%