Election 2013 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2013-11-04 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	1
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1
Rep	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
3	2	1

Analysis

It looks like the gap is widening between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli. It also looks like Christie will win in a landslide.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

It looks Rob Sarvis (LP candidate in VA) could take a good percentage of votes to make this closer than I thought. Plus it seems that not everyone likes ether McAuliffe or Cuccinelli.

Version: 1

NJ: Hurricane Sandy has helped make Chris Christie pretty popular. The only question is will he serve out his term or run for President?

VA: The GOP has for all intents and purposes, nominated someone so out of the mainstream. Then it is hard for me to see how he could win. The Democratic candidate isn't much better ether. Pretty much it seems this is a Dem pickup by default. If the GOP loses and loses big, I wonder if this will prompt discussion on a Constitutional amendment letting the Governor succeed himself.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	6	9	99	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	1	1	73	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	3	1	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	41/56	96/112	85.7%	3	14	265	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	6	3	94	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	14/37	48/74	64.9%	3	2	265	T	456
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	19	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	31/56	83/112	74.1%	1	6	404	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	1	6	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	6	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	31	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	15/33	48/66	72.7%	4	3	207	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	2	0	93	T	312
2004 President	54/56	20/56	74/112	66.1%	6	1	1527	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	409/430	225/430	634/860	73.7%