PredictionsEndorse2014 Gubernatorial Predictions - nyancat (R-CA) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2014-10-05 Version:5

Prediction Map
nyancat MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nyancat MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+3+1+4-2-1-38210+1
Rep+2+1+3-30-3163190
Ind0000-1-1000-1


Analysis

My rating system is based on data compiled from 12 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nyancat (R-CA) 2014-10-05 @ 15:24:41 prediction Map
October 5 Update: Florida from Lean R to Lean D, Massachusetts from Strong D to Lean D ***** September Update: Arizona from Strong R to Lean R ***** August Update: Colorado from Strong D to Lean D, Connecticut from Lean D to Lean R, Florida from Lean D to Lean R, Georgia from Strong R to Lean R, Hawaii from Strong D to Lean D, Kansas from Strong R to Lean R, Wisconsin from Strong R to Lean R ***** May Update: Illinois from Lean D to Lean R, Pennsylvania from Lean D to Strong D

Last Edit: 2014-10-05 @ 15:50:44


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 22/35 55/70 78.6% pie 1 0 67T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 1 2 226T
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 2 72T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 25/36 60/72 83.3% pie 10 0 21T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 10 0 97T
Aggregate Predictions 132/146 82/146 214/292 73.3% pie



Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Iowa Kansas Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico New York New York Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Vermont Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2014 Gubernatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Service - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved