Election 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-11 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	14
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	14
Ind	0
Tos	11
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+7	+2	+9	0	-1	-1	10	2	12	+8
Rep	0	+1	+1	-8	-1	-9	11	2	13	-8
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
36	26	10

Analysis

Net gain of +8 Dem Govs hands them the overall win in the election. Neither house of Congress changes hands. State gov't initiatives to advance the Far Right's agenda are slowed significantly. This sets up a Dem landslide in 2016.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 3

+8 net Dem Govs hands the win in the election overall to the Dems. GOp losing governors in a midterm is disheartening to them and also stops their state-level agenda of limiting voting and removing minority voters to prisons and deportations. Sets up a landslide victory for Dems in 2016. Feel free to discuss.

Version: 1

Starting prediction before candidate slate is set.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	2	54	280	T	305
2020 President	51/56	39/56	90/112	80.4%	4	41	392	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	18/35	48/70	68.6%	2	27	337	T	423
2016 President	46/56	22/56	68/112	60.7%	9	29	590	T	678
2016 Senate	26/34	7/34	33/68	48.5%	4	104	359		362
2014 Senate	28/36	14/36	42/72	58.3%	7	9	308	T	382
2014 Governor	26/36	10/36	36/72	50.0%	4	24	276	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	167	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	36/56	92/112	82.1%	9	12	435	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	18/33	49/66	74.2%	4	22	128	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	35/52	9/52	44/104	42.3%	11	-	98	T	231
Aggregate Predictions	360/431	193/431	553/862	64.2%

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