Election 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-02 Version:9

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	20
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	20
Ind	1
Tos	0
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	0	+3	0	-2	-2	10	2	12	+1
Rep	0	+2	+2	-4	0	-4	15	3	18	-2
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Analysis

My rating system is based on data compiled from 15 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nyancat (R-CA) 2014-11-02 @ 17:08:31
Nov. 2 Update: Arizona from Lean R to Strong R, Arkansas from Lean R to Strong R, Hawaii from Lean D to Strong D, Illinois from Lean R to Lean D, Kansas from Lean R to Lean D, Maine from Lean D to Lean R *** Oct. 26 Update: Alaska from Lean R to Lean I, Illinois from Lean D to Lean R, Massachusetts from Lean D to Lean R * Oct. 19 Update: Rhode Island from Strong D to Lean D * Oct. 12 Update: Alaska from Strong R to Lean R, Connecticut from Lean R to Lean D, Illinois from Lean R to Lean D * Oct. 5 Update: Florida from Lean R to Lean D, Massachusetts from Strong D to Lean D * Sep. Update: Arizona from Strong R to Lean R * Aug. Update: Colorado from Strong D to Lean D, Connecticut from Lean D to Lean R, Florida from Lean D to Lean R, Georgia from Strong R to Lean R, Hawaii from Strong D to Lean D, Kansas from Strong R to Lean R, Wisconsin from Strong R to Lean R *** May Update: Illinois from Lean D to Lean R, Pennsylvania from Lean D to Strong D Last Edit: 2014-11-02 @ 17:09:02

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	1	0	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	1	2	226	T	372
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	2	72	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	25/36	60/72	83.3%	10	0	21	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	10	0	97	T	300
Aggregate Predictions	132/146	82/146	214/292	73.3%