PredictionsEndorse2014 Gubernatorial Predictions - Nik (R-TN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-04 Version:16

Prediction Map
Nik MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Nik MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem7
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos12
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+20+2-2-2-48210-2
Rep+2+2+4-30-316319+1
Ind+10+1000000+1


Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
513120
piepiepie

Analysis

Alaska - Notoriously hard to poll, Alaska has become an unexpected barn burner, due to the merging of the Democrat and Independent Republican candidacies. Parnell has not been successful in dealing with energy costs, has undone much of the good on that from that Palin accomplished as governor, and has been lackluster enough that even Palin herself has endorsed Walker over her former Lieutenant. While Palin’s endorsement doesn’t carry as much weight as it once did in Alaska these days, it is symptomatic of what many Republicans seem to be feeling about Parnell, and for that reason, Walker has a good chance of an upset here. Alaska is still a Republican stronghold though, so Parnell still stands an excellent chance, as well. This race is a toss-up but I’ve finally acknowledged that Walker looks like he may win. Toss-Up I. :: New Hampshire - Hassan once appeared safe, but this is now a barnburner against Havenstein. State officials ought to be a little more immune to a national wave than federal office holders, but this one has become a pure toss-up. Finger on the scale for Hassan. Toss-Up D. :: Colorado - Once seen as a popular reformer, Hickenlooper is now seen as a Liberal crusader. His electoral reforms, anti 2nd Amendment tirades, and abysmal record have all combined to sink his ship. Beauprez will win, but the question is whether the all mail system will allow Hickenlooper to end up with “more” votes, anyway. The chairwoman of the Boulder County GOP was crying on tv the other day, as she saw Democrats posing as Republican election judges, ballots being counted where the signature on file was clearly different from the signature on the ballot envelope, and it was subsequently proven that at least one of the “Republican” judges had just changed his registration from Democrat so he could “count” votes. An example from one county, but symptomatic of the fraud the Democratic Governor and legislature have foisted on the entire system, nonetheless. Beauprez will have to win by a couple percent for his victory to be fraud proof. Toss-Up R. :: Kansas - Brownback seems to have neglected Margaret Thatcher’s advice to remember that you can and should cut taxes, but only to the extent that you can afford it. Brownback seems to have thought that massive tax cuts on the front end would fix the economy of his state, instead of taking the aim to cut taxes AS the economy was fixed. He’s blown a huge hole in the budget, and the voters are very unhappy. The economy of Kansas will catch up to the reforms over the next 4 years, and they will end up being a long term net positive unless Davis is elected governor and undoes them. However, that’s a big “if,” at this point. It’s proof that Brownback understands social conservatism way more than fiscal conservatism and it’s a mistake a smarter man would not have made. Still, I put my finger on the scale for Brownback. Toss-Up R. :: Wisconsin - Democrats have tried everything they know to try to defeat Walker with Burke. But this is what it comes down to: in poll after poll, his voters are more likely to vote than hers. Wisconsin is so evenly divided, with so few persuadable voters, that enthusiasm and turnout is everything. This leans as much to Walker as it can while still being labeled a toss-up. Toss-Up R. :: Illinois - Republicans fouled this one up when they nominated Rauner instead of Brady. Quinn is as popular as syphilis, after blowing Illinois’ finances straight to hell. All we had to do was nominate someone the Democrats couldn’t use to play their class-warfare card on, and we win. So of course we nominate the pro-choice, Liberal, Harvey Milquetoast caricature of a rich, out of touch 1 percenter to be the GOP nominee. Still, people are pretty down on Governor Syphilis, so he could lose pretty easily. Toss-Up D. :: Michigan - Snyder has held a small but fairly consistent lead over Schauer. His problems stem from the fact that the local Democrats bankrupted Detroit to the sound of eager cheerleading from Governor Granholm. How do you fix a city that ruins itself and yet still refuses to change course or vote differently or even accept responsibility for its demise? I don’t envy Snyder. But outside Detroit, everyone pretty much agrees it’s not fair to blame him for the city’s continuing troubles. Outside of Detroit, the state is doing well under Snyder. But I also think everyone agrees, neither Snyder nor Schauer nor anyone else can fix Detroit so long as Detroit voters have anything to say about it. Leans R. :: Florida. - I don’t like Scott but I despise Crist. No other nominee for Governor would I rather see lose. He is the slime of the earth and a complete waste of air. He would have supported Hitler if it meant he would be made Comptroller of the Rhineland. All things being equal, Scott has done a good job by Florida’s economy. And I can’t see the voters letting their dislike for Scott trump the dislike for Crist when Scott has done a better job than Crist ever thought about doing. Still, it’s a total toss-up. I put my finger on the scale for Scott only because I am blinded by pure hatred for Crist. Toss-Up R. :: Maryland - This one is a puzzler. Has the Maryland race all of a sudden become competitive? Smart money always bets on the Democrat here. But Hogan is brilliant. And Brown’s whole campaign has been, “vote for me, I’m just like O’Malley, only black.” Considering O’Malley’s popularity is at 41%, that might not be the wisest play. I can’t say Hogan will win, but God knows if there’s one race this year where the choices really are “awesome” versus “catastrophe,” it’s Maryland. The voters have no one but themselves to blame if they mess up such an easy call. Toss-Up D. :: Connecticut - Malloy is a complete failure and Foley is popular, but the race is still tied because Connecticut hearts high priced misery. This race will depend on whether Bridgeport turnout is down. If it is, Foley wins. If not, Malloy does. Toss-Up R. :: Rhode Island - Raimondo is more moderate than her party, and the Liberals and Unions are still pissed at her. If many refuse to vote for her, Fung may win even though he’d be doing all the things she did to tick them off in the first place, but on a bigger scale. The Moderate Party has fielded a candidate that seems to be doing more damage to Fung, than Raimondo, however. Toss-Up D. :: Massachusetts - Coakley may kill herself after losing twice in this deep blue state. Someone should call the sanitarium to keep her safe for a few weeks just in case. Baker has opened up a lead here, and appears to be genuinely liked by the population. Coakley never has been. Toss-Up R. :: Maine - In many ways, this is the hardest race to handicap. It’s a 3 way between Conservative LePage, Liberal Cutler, and Liberal Michaud. Cutler held a weird press conference sort of releasing his supporters to Michaud, but not really. And in spite of it all, LePage is holding steady. Still, I suspect Cutler’s conference will work for Michaud’s benefit. It does help LePage, however that there’s a Liberal nurse who might have ebola running around the state trying to snuggle as many people as possible because Obama told her she could. And turn-out will be higher in the second district, which also helps LePage. Toss-Up D. :: Pennsylvania - I have no idea really what people think the problem is with Governor Corbett. He’s pretty good. But all the polls bear out that he’s probably going to lose to Wolf, whose plan to fix the state’s economy is to spend more on education which the state doesn’t have. Brilliant! (sarcasm off). This has closed recently in the polls, but Wolf is still strongly favored. It’s probably about as far on the leaning scale as it can get without being regarded as safe. Lean D. :: Georgia - Deal and Haslam are two peas in a pod, but Deal doesn’t grin as much. Still, is Georgia really pining to bring back the Carter dynasty? No. Deal may be forced into a January runoff if he fails to get 50% plus 1 in the first round. In fact, I predict there will be a runoff. But Deal will be a sure thing in a runoff, as Republicans always fare better in run-offs in Georgia. Safe R. :: Arkansas - I’m probably supposed to think this race is still some level of competitive because of the Democrats’ nomination of former Congressman Ross, who is probably the safest and best choice they could have made. But I don’t. This is the year the Democratic Party dies in Arkansas. Hutchinson in a walk. Safe R. :: Ohio - FitzGerald is dragging down this entire Democratic ticket and brand in this state. Kasich will top 60%, which probably makes him and Governor Walker the big winners out of all of this looking towards the 2016 presidential race. Safe R. :: Minnesota - Dayton is a far leftist. But he’s governed as quietly as is possible, for him. And Minnesota’s economy is not faring terribly. Johnson is credible as a challenger, and would be a good governor. Dayton is stuck at 45% here, so there remains the possibility of an upset. But it would be an upset. Lean D. :: Nebraska - Concerning to me is Nebraska, where Ricketts will beat Hassebrook resoundingly. Concerning because there seems to be some hesitation among the electorate about Ricketts, who seems likely to become Nebraska’s Brownback. He won’t crack 60%. And 4 years from now we’ll see if my concern, and that of some Nebraska Conservatives, was justified. Safe R. :: Texas - Davis’ campaign is going to leave a stench on the Texas Democratic Party for the next decade. Knowing she’s going to lose has caused her to become unstable, like a dying neutron star of craziness, she experiences one public melt-down after another. Abbott will win in a 20 point plus walk over Davis. But probably won’t break 60% in a 4 candidate race. Safe R. :: Arizona - Polling here has been odd but Ducey has established himself as favored more recently. He’s now pretty comfortable in the polls, but a large undecided portion of the electorate still introduces a certain amount of uncertainty into this race. Leans R. :: Nevada - When “none of these candidates” is the rightful recipient of the Democratic nomination, you know it’s all over but the counting. Sandoval is very popular, and in the early vote, there are more registered Republicans that voted in every county in the state, including CLARK, a death knell for not only Goodman, but also the Democratic majority in the State House, Democratic control of the 4 statewide offices they are defending, and very possibly Congressman Horsford, as well. I think Sandoval stays under 60%, however. Safe R. :: Oregon - Kitzhaber fatigue is setting in. And the green card scandal surrounding his wife hasn’t helped. Still, this race has been off the national radar, and Oregon is not really a purple state, so much as blue. A surprise is possible here, and polling has closed, with Kitzhaber under 50%. But Richardson needs a revolt at this last hour in order to succeed. Lean D. :: Hawaii - At one point in time, this race looked to be a good pick-up opportunity for the GOP. The disdain for Abercrombie, combined with his primary humiliation, combined with his replacement Ige splitting the same base of support with Independent Hanneman, combined with the popular figure of Aiona, the once incredibly popular Lingle’s Lieutenant Governor, combined with nostalgia for Lingle, all meant that Aiona stood a great chance in a 3 way race, similar to the race LePage won in Maine 4 years ago. However this is Hawaii, and Democrats boast the greatest partisan advantage here of anywhere in the country. Hanneman’s supporters are moving to Ige and that consolidation is enough that this race now leans Democrat. Ige has not yet failed in the spectacular way Abercrombie had, so even though their policies are carbon copies one to another, this very Liberal state seems willing to whistle past the boneyard yet again. Leans D. :: Wyoming - Mead is similar to Otter in terms of being less popular than he should be, but not to the same extent, even though in my opinion he is more deserving of the dislike than Otter is. Still, he will top 60% against Gosar. Safe R. :: Idaho - Otter is not a popular figure. But no one expects him to lose. Another GOP Governor could easily crack 60% in Idaho in a year like this. Otter probably won’t. But neither will he sink below 50% against Balukoff. Safe R. :: New Mexico - Democrats had high hopes for Attorney General King, but he has never gotten any traction against the increasingly popular and incredibly capable Martinez. Safe R. :: Oklahoma - Fallin should be more popular than she is, especially against Dorman, who is not much of an opponent. An inmate execution gone awry seems to have hurt her, but of course she will well surpass the 50% mark anyway. Safe R. :: South Dakota - Daugaard beats Wismer, the sacrificial lamb, in a walk. This one is on no one’s radar. Better than 60%. Safe R. :: Iowa - Branstad is about to defeat Hatch in a rout. He will just get south of 60%. And that makes Ernst and the entire state GOP very happy indeed. Safe R. :: Tennessee - I don’t particularly care for Haslam, but he will win in a landslide against Brown. I only hope in 4 years we get a Governor in my home state who isn’t a grinning weasel. Better than 60%. Safe R. :: Alabama - Bentley will defeat Griffith with better than 60% of the vote. The Democrat-turned Republican-turned Democrat just doesn’t inspire the Democratic base. And Bentley was going to be virtually unstoppable even if Griffith was able to motivate the base. Safe R. :: South Carolina - They thought this one would be competitive when Haley underperformed in her first election. But she’s trouncing Sheheen in the polls and he is so desperate, he’s taken to calling her a whore to boost himself in the polls. I guess he forgot that “whore” is probably a pretty offensive term to his core base of supporters. Haley won’t break 60%, but close. Safe R. :: Vermont - Shumlin looks like Dustin Hoffman halfway through washing off his makeup from the movie Tootsie, and acts like Dustin Hoffman in Hook. But this is Vermont. Polls have been tighter than expected, and Milne is running a good campaign. Shumlin won’t break 60%, but still… Safe D. :: New York - Cuomo’s primary showing was terrible and had to be humiliating. But this is New York, he’s an incumbent, a probable candidate for President, and poor Astorino can’t get anyone to give him any money. The question is whether enough Liberals will protest vote to deny Cuomo his 60%. I think not. He’ll top 60%. Safe D. :: California - The question here is whether Brown will break 60%. Kashkari has run an excellent, ideas based campaign, and Democrat turnout is expected to be lower than normal, as reflected in the early vote. So I say Brown is held under 60. Safe D.


Prediction History
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 8 0 106T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 7 2 6T
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 2 98T
P 2016 President 52/56 33/56 85/112 75.9% pie 8 0 66T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 6 0 60T
P 2016 Governor 10/12 8/12 18/24 75.0% pie 6 0 3T
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 1 8T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 16 0 4T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 16 0 22T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 1 1T
P 2012 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 11 1 702T
P 2012 Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 5 1 319T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 179T
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 20/52 63/104 60.6% pie 25 - 27T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 2 34 12T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 20 1 100T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 20 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 10 1T
P 2008 President 45/56 28/56 73/112 65.2% pie 21 0 791T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 9 0 81T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 0 86T
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 25/52 64/104 61.5% pie 15 - 33
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 22/49 63/98 64.3% pie 14 - 7T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 51 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 133T
P 2006 Governor 36/36 23/36 59/72 81.9% pie 9 1 36T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 18 1 49T
Aggregate Predictions 707/813 475/813 1182/1626 72.7% pie



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