PredictionsEndorse2014 Gubernatorial Predictions - ground_x (D-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-03 Version:3

Prediction Map
ground_x MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
ground_x MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep18
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos5
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+50+50-2-210212+3
Rep0+2+2-60-613316-4
Ind+10+1000000+1


Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
453015
piepiepie

Analysis

11/3: I list GA as tossup only because I think it will go to a runoff (2) At this point, ME, WI, CO and AK are still real toss ups!<br /> <br /> 11/4: Sticking with this map. Two points: 1) GA may go to a run off; (2) Only difference between my map and most analysts is Wisconsin--but as no polls put Walker =/> 50 %, I think the Democratic GOTV might do it for Burke.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 517
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 6 0 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 26/36 58/72 80.6% pie 5 2 56T372
P 2016 President 50/56 30/56 80/112 71.4% pie 8 0 246T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 4 0 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 3/12 12/24 50.0% pie 2 0 164T279
P 2014 Senate 31/36 22/36 53/72 73.6% pie 5 0 158T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 15/36 45/72 62.5% pie 3 1 145T300
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 8 1 182T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 1 94T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 2 1 5T228
P 2010 Senate 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 3 0 100T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 2 1 91T312
P 2008 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 7 0 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 18/33 51/66 77.3% pie 1 0 96T407
P 2008 Dem Primary 31/52 14/52 45/104 43.3% pie 2 - 85T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 14/49 5/49 19/98 19.4% pie 1 - 162T235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 4 0 113T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 16/36 51/72 70.8% pie 3 0 122T312
P 2004 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 30 2 14T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 632/734 408/734 1040/1468 70.8% pie



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