PredictionsEndorse2015 Gubernatorial Predictions - Nik (R-TN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2015-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map
Nik MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Nik MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
2 |
3 |
50 |
Dem2
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Non47
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
3 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Tos2
 
Non47
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+1+1000011+1
Rep0000-1-1101-1
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 6)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
422
piepiepie

Analysis

Terrible candidates in KY and LA mean the GOP will take 2 easy wins and turn them into losses this year.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 3

Made LA strong GOP and shifted KY back to the GOP for now based on present trends.


Version: 2

An unfortunate primary result has tipped the Kentucky race in the other direction. It's possible that Bevin could win, however Conway, for all his faults, is now slightly favored. Vitter and Bryant are still the safe bets in LA and MS, respectively.


Version: 1

KY - Will be a tough race, but the national Democrats are so unpopular, and Conway so under-accomplished, I don't think he can win. Unless the GOP nominates a pair of duds. LA - Question here is whether Dems even field a legitimate candidate against presumptive GOP nominee Vitter. Vitter will win, but it could be a landslide if the Dems implode. MS - Bryant in a landslide.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 46/56 30/56 76/112 67.9% pie 5 6 654T683
P 2020 Senate 31/35 23/35 54/70 77.1% pie 4 4 101T423
P 2020 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 3 6 211T293
P 2019 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 3 14T192
P 2018 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 8 0 106T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 7 2 6T372
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 2 98T149
P 2016 President 52/56 33/56 85/112 75.9% pie 8 0 66T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 6 0 60T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 8/12 18/24 75.0% pie 6 0 3T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 1 8T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 16 0 4T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 16 0 22T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 1 1T153
P 2012 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 11 1 702T760
P 2012 Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 5 1 319T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 179T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 20/52 63/104 60.6% pie 25 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 2 34 12T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 20 1 100T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 20 1 59T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 10 1T103
P 2008 President 45/56 28/56 73/112 65.2% pie 21 0 791T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 9 0 81T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 0 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 25/52 64/104 61.5% pie 15 - 33271
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 22/49 63/98 64.3% pie 14 - 7T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 51 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 133T465
P 2006 Governor 36/36 23/36 59/72 81.9% pie 9 1 36T312
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 18 1 49T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 797/918 536/918 1333/1836 72.6% pie



Kentucky Louisiana Mississippi

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