Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:25
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 24)
Analysis
FINAL GUBERNATORIAL PREDICTIONS 2016<br /> <br /> REPUBLICANS MAKE NET GAIN OF TWO SEATS<br /> <br /> These states are the closest: Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. <br /> <br /> In New England the GOP is poised to seize control of the governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont. <br /> <br /> In New Hampshire, Republican Chris Sununu, scion of a famous N.H. political family appears to be clinging to a tenuous lead. This pickup would be important to GOP as they have not held N.H. governorship since 2004. <br /> <br /> Similarly Vermont appears to be returning to Republican leadership as Phil Scott, Republican, is on the verge of defeating Democrat Sue Minter.<br /> <br /> The West Virginia governor's race has been quiet. Jim Justice (D) is not to be underestimated and Democrats have had success in carrying the statehouse here of late, however, that being said, Trump is poised to win big in the presidential race here, and that should provide coattails for Republican Bill Cole to prevail by a comfortable margin. Jim Justice was probably the lone Democrat who could put this race in play, outside of, obviously, Joe Manchin.<br /> <br /> North Carolina is the main event, and has been on the radar for both parties from day one. Republican incumbent Pat McCrory has had a rocky tenure, and Roy Cooper was about the best candidate Democrats could've hoped for in this race. There have been times when it seemed as if Cooper was pulling away, however McCrory has closed the gap and has made this a very close race. That may not be enough. This is going right down to the wire, but Cooper should pull it out be a point or two.<br /> <br /> Indiana, of course, is where Mike Pence stepped down to run as Trump VP pick. This race see-sawed from Republicans to Democrats up, now to even money. This is going to down to the wire, but Republican Holcomb should prevail, albeit narrowly.<br /> <br /> Missouri presents itself as another nail-biter. Much like Indiana, this one is hanging on the edge. I am giving this very tentatively to Democrat Chris Koster. This is a hold for the Democrats, but one that very easily could've slipped away.<br /> <br /> Montana should see incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock win, but not by very much. He hardly prevailed in 2012 when Romney was pounding to victory in Montana, and with Trump poised to do much the same, a similar result should occur.<br /> <br /> All other races feature incumbents who are well ahead of the opposition. <br /> <br />
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