Election 2016 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-09-22 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		7 \|	12 \|	50 \|
Dem	9
Rep	3
Ind	0
Non	38

Confidence States Won

		7 \|	12 \|	50 \|
Dem	6
Rep	2
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	38

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	0	+2	-1	0	-1	4	3	7	+1
Rep	+1	0	+1	-2	0	-2	2	0	2	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 24)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
14	9	5

Analysis

Things have moved in the Democrats favor in most states - Missouri looks like a strong Koster win, North Carolina looks like a strong Cooper win, and there have been some major surprises in Indiana and West Virginia that have made them Dem-leaning in my mind. In addition, I've been moving Vermont slowly to the Dems due to the fact that Scott will have to share a ballot with Trump. The most R-moving state to me is New Hampshire, where Sununu is leading Van Ostern in the last poll by 6 and is very close to 50. So, a net pick-up of 1 seat will do just fine considering this was a very possible election for Dems to actually LOSE governor spots.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	30/35	19/35	49/70	70.0%	2	130	272	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%	2	132	78	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	10	1	T	149
2016 President	46/56	25/56	71/112	63.4%	6	26	552	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	47	164	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	3	47	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	165	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	24/36	59/72	81.9%	7	1	42	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	21/36	50/72	69.4%	6	1	39	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	234	1	T	153
2012 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%	2	47	115	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	272/308	188/308	460/616	74.7%