PredictionsEndorse2016 Gubernatorial Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:25

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
7 |
12 |
50 |
Dem6
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind0
 
Non38
 

Confidence States Won
7 |
12 |
50 |
Dem3
 
pie
Rep3
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non38
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+10+10-3-3325-2
Rep0+3+3-10-1123+2
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 24)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
16106
piepiepie

Analysis

FINAL GUBERNATORIAL PREDICTIONS 2016<br /> <br /> REPUBLICANS MAKE NET GAIN OF TWO SEATS<br /> <br /> These states are the closest: Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. <br /> <br /> In New England the GOP is poised to seize control of the governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont. <br /> <br /> In New Hampshire, Republican Chris Sununu, scion of a famous N.H. political family appears to be clinging to a tenuous lead. This pickup would be important to GOP as they have not held N.H. governorship since 2004. <br /> <br /> Similarly Vermont appears to be returning to Republican leadership as Phil Scott, Republican, is on the verge of defeating Democrat Sue Minter.<br /> <br /> The West Virginia governor's race has been quiet. Jim Justice (D) is not to be underestimated and Democrats have had success in carrying the statehouse here of late, however, that being said, Trump is poised to win big in the presidential race here, and that should provide coattails for Republican Bill Cole to prevail by a comfortable margin. Jim Justice was probably the lone Democrat who could put this race in play, outside of, obviously, Joe Manchin.<br /> <br /> North Carolina is the main event, and has been on the radar for both parties from day one. Republican incumbent Pat McCrory has had a rocky tenure, and Roy Cooper was about the best candidate Democrats could've hoped for in this race. There have been times when it seemed as if Cooper was pulling away, however McCrory has closed the gap and has made this a very close race. That may not be enough. This is going right down to the wire, but Cooper should pull it out be a point or two.<br /> <br /> Indiana, of course, is where Mike Pence stepped down to run as Trump VP pick. This race see-sawed from Republicans to Democrats up, now to even money. This is going to down to the wire, but Republican Holcomb should prevail, albeit narrowly.<br /> <br /> Missouri presents itself as another nail-biter. Much like Indiana, this one is hanging on the edge. I am giving this very tentatively to Democrat Chris Koster. This is a hold for the Democrats, but one that very easily could've slipped away.<br /> <br /> Montana should see incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock win, but not by very much. He hardly prevailed in 2012 when Romney was pounding to victory in Montana, and with Trump poised to do much the same, a similar result should occur.<br /> <br /> All other races feature incumbents who are well ahead of the opposition. <br /> <br />


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T
Aggregate Predictions 646/705 459/705 1105/1410 78.4% pie



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