Election 2017 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2017-10-29 Version:1

Prediction Map

mah519 Map

Prediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

mah519 Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		1 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	2
Rep	0
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		1 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	2
Rep	0
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1
Rep	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Despite some waverliness, I think Northam wins by 5 or 6, putting him slightly above 50. Murphy wins in a blow out but still under 60, unfortunately.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	30/35	19/35	49/70	70.0%		2	130	272	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%		2	132	78	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%		1	10	1	T	149
2016 President	46/56	25/56	71/112	63.4%		6	26	552	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%		2	47	164	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%		3	47	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%		1	165	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	24/36	59/72	81.9%		7	1	42	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	21/36	50/72	69.4%		6	1	39	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%		1	234	1	T	153
2012 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%		2	47	115	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	272/308	188/308	460/616	74.7%

User Info

mah519 Forum Profile

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