Election 2017 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2017-07-15 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		1 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	2
Rep	0
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		1 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	2
Rep	0
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1
Rep	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

NJ: Murphy should cruise to victory due to Christie's shadow, Trump's shadow, and the state's general D lean. Safe D.<br /> <br /> VA: This should be a close one, as it is with seemingly all VA statewide elections. A strong third party could hold the winner to a plurality in the 40s. This will not be a blowout one way or the other. Lean D.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	71	48	T	118
2018 Senate	31/35	19/35	50/70	71.4%	1	357	246	T	483
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	116	40	T	149
2016 President	51/56	21/56	72/112	64.3%	1	359	527	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	16/34	47/68	69.1%	1	359	213	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	5/12	12/24	50.0%	1	359	164	T	279
Aggregate Predictions	123/141	63/141	186/282	66.0%