Date of Prediction: 2018-11-06 Version:2
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
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Version: 1 South Carolina(my home state so some bias);South Carolina is the most underrated election in the country rn. It’s as competitive as Oklahoma put is put in the same category as Alabama. McMaster is a very establishment republican, in a time when that is seen as a bad thing. He had a tough time against anti-establishment trumpian John Warren. I know people who worked with the Warren campaign and said that’s McMaster would have a hard time winning over the Warren anti-establishment votes. McMaster winning was the best case scenario for democrats. The, likely, only poll done should McMaster and Smith within 4 points and 10% undecided. If Smith can appeal to centrists and democrats and drive up African American turnout while McMaster is left shoring up republican votes, Smith could win. That being said South Carolina is a republican State, so it’s still an uphill battle for Smith, and McMaster still has the upper hand, but South Carolina is not as safe as people think, and the race will likely be within a few percentage points. I put it as Democrat here mostly to draw attention to how underrated it is.<br /> Overall; This cycle is almost the polar opposite of the senate election, but times 10. Republicans have a lot of seats in trouble from Nevada to Iowa to Georgia. Democrats have a historic low amount of governor mansions and they can only go up. Democrats could have a majority of governorships after Election Day. If they can win in all the tough states, they could flip the script on republicans and go from having 16 democratic governors to 33 republicans to having 30+ democratic to less than twenty republicans. This probably won’t happen, but shows how good they have it. An interesting side note; it’s conceivable that republicans will win every governorship in New England, Connecticut, Rhode Island are the only ones with democratic govenors, and one is widely unpopular, and the other is facing a tough rematch which she barely won last time, while democrats could win a majority of governorships in the former confederate states.<br />
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