Election 2018 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-06 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	18
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	+6	+9	0	0	0	5	4	9	+9
Rep	+1	0	+1	-3	-6	-9	10	7	17	-8
Ind	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	0	0	0	-1

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
58	32	26

Analysis

11/6/18: Final map. I agree with the Atlas consensus here as well, Dems should pick up 8-9 governorships. While Dems are slight favorites in Iowa, GOP in Kansas, this could easily reverse. As for Georgia, the state should go to a runoff (as a Democrat, I am not optimistic about runoffs in the South). But look for a possible surprise in New England.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 4

10/30/18: Maybe I should shift Ohio?

Version: 3

11/23/18: Governorships looking better for Democrats. Florida seems safe, and Alaska is now a tossup. Dems will probably beat Walker in Wisconsin.<br />

Version: 2

11/16/18: Three weeks out, Dems poised to pick up +/- six governorships. Wisconsin and Nevada will be very close, and Georgia may go to a runoff!

Version: 1

7/31: I am confident about at least four Democratic pickups--Me, Mich, Ill, NM.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	35/35	30/35	65/70	92.9%	1	0	3	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	1	0	11	T	272
2020 President	53/56	38/56	91/112	81.3%	3	6	359	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	19/35	51/70	72.9%	1	4	241	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	5	10	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	6	0	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	5	2	56	T	372
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	8	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	4	0	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	3/12	12/24	50.0%	2	0	164	T	279
2014 Senate	31/36	22/36	53/72	73.6%	5	0	158	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	15/36	45/72	62.5%	3	1	145	T	300
2012 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	8	1	182	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	20/33	51/66	77.3%	6	1	94	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	2	1	5	T	228
2010 Senate	35/37	22/37	57/74	77.0%	3	0	100	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	2	1	91	T	312
2008 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	7	0	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	18/33	51/66	77.3%	1	0	96	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	31/52	14/52	45/104	43.3%	2	-	85	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	14/49	5/49	19/98	19.4%	1	-	162	T	235
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	4	0	113	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	16/36	51/72	70.8%	3	0	122	T	312
2004 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	30	2	14	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	798/907	531/907	1329/1814	73.3%