Election 2018 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-05 Version:26

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	16
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	9
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	+8	+11	0	0	0	5	4	9	+11
Rep	+1	0	+1	-3	-8	-11	10	5	15	-10
Ind	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	0	0	0	-1

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
55	32	23

Analysis

Final map, with just a few percentage adjustments from the previous iteration. No really a whole lot of analysis to add, large Democratic gains seem quite likely in the gubernatorial races this year.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: darthpi (D-PA) 2018-11-05 @ 20:46:09
And please, everyone, tomorrow: Get out there and vote. The future of our constitutional republic depends on it.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	6	1	124	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	29/36	63/72	87.5%	6	1	11	T	272
2020 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	18	6	359	T	684
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	26	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	23/36	55/72	76.4%	26	3	122	T	372
2016 President	51/56	33/56	84/112	75.0%	37	1	87	T	678
2014 Senate	34/36	26/36	60/72	83.3%	11	4	21	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	6	3	73	T	300
2012 President	56/56	45/56	101/112	90.2%	30	1	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	7	1	40	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	19/52	64/104	61.5%	42	-	25	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	30/37	65/74	87.8%	26	1	5		456
2010 Governor	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	6	1	29	T	312
2008 President	52/56	44/56	96/112	85.7%	19	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	37/52	19/52	56/104	53.8%	15	-	58	T	271
Aggregate Predictions	589/649	421/649	1010/1298	77.8%