Election 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2019-11-04 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	3
Rep	0
Ind	0
Non	47

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	0
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	47

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2
Rep	0	0	0	-1	-1	-2	0	0	0	-2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 6)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
3	2	1

Analysis

I'm predicting a Democrat sweep, though I'm not as confident about Mississippi as the other two. I have trouble believing the polls that show a close runoff in Louisiana, and in any case I would seriously eat my hat if Edwards were to actually lose. As for Kentucky, I'm pretty sure Bevin is toast.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	2	74	T	115
2022 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	3	1	205	T	305
2022 Governor	30/36	21/36	51/72	70.8%	3	1	228	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	11	1	T	118
2020 President	50/56	32/56	82/112	73.2%	3	58	608	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	2	66	137	T	423
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	1	4	104	T	192
2018 Senate	29/35	14/35	43/70	61.4%	2	200	417	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	15/36	45/72	62.5%	1	301	295	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	31	40	T	149
2016 President	42/56	12/56	54/112	48.2%	5	47	660	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	17/34	48/68	70.6%	4	63	164	T	362
2016 Governor	11/12	7/12	18/24	75.0%	1	63	3	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	7	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	13	4	4	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	17/36	47/72	65.3%	12	4	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	234	17	T	153
2012 President	53/56	33/56	86/112	76.8%	8	5	591	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	17/33	48/66	72.7%	4	12	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	3	1	89	T	228
Aggregate Predictions	457/522	271/522	728/1044	69.7%

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