Election 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2019-10-23 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	3
Ind	0
Non	47

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	3
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	47

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	0	0	0	-1
Rep	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 6)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
1	1	0

Analysis

There is a possibility JBE wins, but it is more likely than not that he loses. <br /> <br /> I'm confident in both Bevin and Reeves winning. The former at a margin over 50% but less than 60%, the latter at a margin over 60%. Though there is the possibility that Reeves gets brought under 60%.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	29/35	17/35	46/70	65.7%	1	317	291	T	305
2022 Governor	23/36	13/36	36/72	50.0%	1	317	267		272
2020 President	48/56	32/56	80/112	71.4%	2	404	627	T	684
2019 Governor	1/3	0/3	1/6	16.7%	1	16	179	T	192
Aggregate Predictions	101/130	62/130	163/260	62.7%

Links

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