Date of Prediction: 2020-08-03 Version:5
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
With three months to go until Election Day, here are the state of the elections. Montana is, once again, the only question mark on the map. Recent polls have certainly given Greg Gianforte an edge over Mike Cooney, but I do wonder how much of this is due to his greater name recognition. The attorney generalship and the House seat are also closely contested, meaning competitive races up and down the ballot in the Treasure State this November. We will have to wait and see if Mr. Cooney can catch up, but Mr. Gianforte has the advantage for now. Montana remains as a true Toss-up. In the Show-Me State, Gov. Mike Parson remains in a decent position against Nicole Galloway. Mr. Parson's recent support for fully opening schools despite the risk to families and teachers may cause suburban voters to sour on him. However, I am unsure whether that will be enough to turn Missouri blue. We will have to wait for new polling to see if the race has shifted at all. For now, Missouri remains as Lean Republican. Gov. Roy Cooper remains strong in North Carolina, outrunning both Joe Biden and senate candidate Cal Cunningham. Mr. Cooper's decision to stop the Republican National Convention from taking place in Charlotte without proper protections seems to have kept his approvals high. Meanwhile his opponent, Dan Forest, does not seem to have made many inroads against Mr. Cooper so far. All this means that the Tarheel State remains as Lean Democratic. Polling remains very sparse in West Virginia. However, with the Mountain State being so conservative, Gov. Jim Justice continues to have a significant advantage against Ben Salango. We will have to wait and see if Mr. Salango can localize this race enough to make it competitive. However, for now, West Virginia remains as Lean Republican. Current average of Governorships is 26.5 for Republicans, and 23.5 for Democrats.
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