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Date of Prediction: 2021-09-10 Version:4
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Gavin Newsom survives the recall by a 57-41 margin, Phil Murphy wins reelection by a 53-45 margin, and Glenn Trumpkin wins by a triple digit vote margin in the closest election in Virginia’s history.
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