Election 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2021-08-29 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		1 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	3
Rep	0
Ind	0
Non	47

Confidence States Won

		1 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	3
Rep	0
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	47

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	0
Rep	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
2	1	1

Analysis

Pretty straightforward scenario. Newsom hangs on in California by a moderate margin. Virginia is also close but it's become too Democratic for Youngkin to have a serious chance, so TMac wins. New Jersey is an easy win for Murphy.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	229	1	T	115
2022 Senate	31/35	25/35	56/70	80.0%	9	1	147	T	305
2022 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	10	0	104	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	71	48	T	118
2020 President	49/56	40/56	89/112	79.5%	1	16	434	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	27/35	59/70	84.3%	1	14	7	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	16	51	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	148	35	T	192
2018 Senate	34/35	23/35	57/70	81.4%	17	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	17	2	56	T	372
Aggregate Predictions	227/252	180/252	407/504	80.8%