Date of Prediction: 2022-11-06 Version:40
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Screw it, someone’s gotta go bold
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 39 Johnson seems to be collapsing. Late polarization could put Kotek back over the top. Version: 36 "I don't know why locking up criminals is so important to you" - Kathy Hochul Version: 24 Tbh I don't know enough about Alaska politics Version: 23 Not as confident in Kansas as I used to be, though I think Schmidt still has the edge, albeit a slight one. Version: 21 At this point the chances of Abrams pulling off an upset are slim to none Version: 19 If Dixon gets nominated in Michigan (which I think she will), she's got the best shot at taking down Whitmer. Version: 18 Polling shows a tight race, maybe Minnesota will flip after all?<br /> <br /> But this is how it stands now imo. Very cursed to see Minnesota flip but not Michigan. Definitely shows how incompetent the Michigan GOP truly is. Version: 17 Moved Michigan back to R, I think Whitmer goes down either way even if it may be slightly tougher now. Version: 16 Welp, I guess there goes Connecticut? Polling doesn't look too good for Stefanowski. Version: 14 Not looking too good in Michigan for the GOP right now :/ Version: 12 Looks like Lamont's got some corruption scandals Version: 11 What is anything? Version: 8 Prepare to see me start flip-flopping on Georgia from time to time. Version: 7 Moved Minnesota back to tossup after recent polling, still think Walz pulls it off. Version: 6 I have a feeling Maine might be like the New Jersey of 2022. Also increased dem confidence in Minnesota. Version: 5 Upgraded my confidence in Nevada Version: 3 May get quite a few surprises this year, also updated margins Version: 1 Initial prediction
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