Election 2022 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2022-11-06 Version:39

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	23
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	20
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+2	+2	-4	-1	-5	9	2	11	-3
Rep	+4	+1	+5	0	-2	-2	15	3	18	+3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Second to final prediction for the Governor's mansions. I expect a decent amount of ticket splitting with governor's and senate races- particularly in OR/NV/AZ/GA/PA/NH/VT. I think Pennsylvania will be closer than expected by virtue of that race being an open one and Michigan is my pick for a Republican upset due to the state's partisan lean and Whitmer's unpopularity.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	3	1	1	T	115
2022 Senate	31/35	21/35	52/70	74.3%	24	0	243	T	305
2022 Governor	31/36	23/36	54/72	75.0%	39	2	194	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	2	54	48	T	118
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	21	6	179	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	20/35	51/70	72.9%	10	4	241	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	23	51	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	3	43	130	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	21/35	52/70	74.3%	16	1	170	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	8	19	94	T	372
Aggregate Predictions	225/252	163/252	388/504	77.0%

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