Comments History
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hideVersion: 31
My Georgia Prediction:
...................Obama....McCain....Barr/Other
White 62%.....25%.....70%......5%
Black 32%.....94%.....4%......2%
Other 6%.....48%.....48%......4%
Which results in:
Obama 48.46%
McCain 47.56%
Barr/Other 3.98%
Obama wins Georgia in a squeaker!
My Indiana Prediction:
...................Obama....McCain....Barr/Other
White 86%.....44%.....54%.......2%
Black 9%.....95%......3%.......2%
Other 5%.....70%......27%.......3%
Which results in:
Obama 49.89%
McCain 48.06%
Barr/Nader/Other 2.05%
Version: 27
North Carolina Prediction:
................Obama......McCain.......Barr/Nader/Other
White 69%....31%......65%.........4%
Black 28%....94%......4%..........2%
Other 3%.....60%......36%.........4%
Which results in:
Obama 49.51%
McCain 47.05%
Barr/Nader/Other 3.44%
Version: 25
Georgia Prediction:
..................Obama.....McCain....Barr/Other
White (62%)...26%.......68%.........6%
Black (32%)...93%.......5%..........2%
Other (6%)....44%.......52%.........4%
This results in:
Obama 48.52%
McCain 46.88%
Barr/Other 4.6%
Version: 23
Mississippi could look like this:
............Obama....McCain....Barr/Other
White 57%....16%.......79%.........5%
Black 41%....95%.......3%..........2%
Other 2%.....40%.......56%.........4%
Which results in:
Obama 48.87%
McCain 47.38%
Barr/Other 3.75%
Version: 22
Georgia could look like this:
Obama McCain Barr Other
White 59% 24% 63% 11% 2%
Black 31% 92% 5% 2% 1%
Other 10% 46% 48% 4% 2%
Which results in:
Obama 47.28%
McCain 43.52%
Barr 7.51%
Other 1.69%
Version: 21
Obama could capture Mississippi if he gets just 18% of the white vote there. We shall see.
Version: 20
This is all predicated upon the idea of an Obama/Richardson ticket.
An Obama/Richardson ticket would be an unprecedented force of nature that would cause African American and Hispanic turnout to skyrocket.
Another problem for the GOP this year: Bob Barr's Presidential run as a Libertarian. He'll take a few votes from Obama, but he'll siphon off much more from McCain.
Barr will grab votes from McCain most conspicuously in Georgia. There, Obama will hold onto his core constituencies of African Americans, white 18-29 year olds, Hispanics, and mainline Liberals. Barr will most likely grab just enough of the white Conservative vote from McCain to make a difference.
The final vote tally could look like this:
Obama 47%
McCain 45.5%
Barr 6.5%
Nader/Other 1%
Many people don't realize that Georgia is over 30% black now. But black turnout has historically been somewhat low. You can bet it won't be this year. I wouldn't be surprised at all if black turnout in Georgia exceeded 30% or even 32% of the total electorate. And Obama will capture 92% or more of that group. You may rely on it.
Georgia also has one of the fastest growing Hispanic communities in the country. Bill Richardson would help with that bigtime.
Version: 19
If Bob Barr enters the race as the Libertarian nominee for President that will probably deliver Georgia to Obama. Barr would pull a fair amount of white conservatives from McCain. The results would look like this:
Obama 47%
McCain 43%
Barr 9%
It could possibly deliver Texas to Obama as well, provided that Obama chose Richardson as his running mate. The results could look like this:
Obama 45%
McCain 44%
Barr 9%
Other 2%
I still wonder if Barack is considering Richardson as his V.P. Wouldn't that be an unstoppable ticket?
Here is what I think the breakdown would look like:
% of electorate Obama McCain
White 66% 42% 56%
Hispanic 15% 64% 32%
Black 13% 94% 5%
Asian 4% 58% 40%
Other 2% 76% 20%
Final:
Obama 53.38%
McCain 44.41%
Note that even if, say, Obama's support among white voters dropped to 39% he would still win.
Version: 16
An Obama/Richardson ticket would cause Texas to go to the Democrats. The Hispanic community of Texas would not pass up an opportunity to put Bill Richardson in the White House.
The voter breakdown would look like this:
48% White Obama 28% McCain 70%
36% Hispanic Obama 64% McCain 34%
11% Black Obama 94% McCain 5%
5% Other Obama 60% McCain 37%
Obama 49.82%
McCain 48.24%
Version: 10
I have been watching the turnout and it is incredibly low for Republicans. Even in places like Louisiana, the Dems have about three times the turnout (their primaries were held on the same day). And in places like Missouri and Georgia, the difference was striking.
Version: 9
This is how I see Obama vs. Republican in November without a third party candidate (Bloomberg).
Version: 8
3-way race.
Version: 7
This is just a fun exercise predicting what I think will happen if Bloomberg enters the race. :)