Final Prediction....

Barack Obama-51.0%
John McCain-48.5%

Obama wins by a narrow margin. States showing as true tossups in the polls go to McCain as undecideds break for John McCain this election. But losses in CO, NM, IA, and PA do their damage.I do however expect the race in most states to be closer than most polls show.

As of 10/12/08...the race is definitely Obama's to lose. The question remains whether the stock market plummet of the past few weeks will continue. If it does, I dont see McCain winning, no matter how hard he tries. If the markets do stabilize, I believe the race will tighten once more.

Now, about the map...the Upper Mid-West is clearly trending Obama, however, in spite of all polls, I still like McCain's chances in both Ohio and Virginia. Here's why,

Ohio...a traditionally Republican state w/ a strong industrial base. One would think that the recent market shakeup would have Obama leading by wide margins. The fact that he isn't, plus the GOP history in the stay, and the largely White/Republican center and SW of the state make me think McCain pulls it off.

Virginia...trending Democratic over the past few years, but, we can't forget the well-known 'Bradley/Wilder Effect.' Douglas Wilder, the nations first black governor, led polls in this state by 15-20 points across the board prior to his election. In the end, he won by <0.5%. Plus, this state went GOP in 1992 and 1996, both sided Dem years.

Colorado and New Mexico...Obama's best chance at picking up a traditionally 'red' state is in my opinion Colorado. It's growing hispanic population is swinging the state more Democratic, as is the growing city of Denver. Obama should win New Mexico as well, although low turnout among hispanic voters could suppress his vote totals in both states.

Florida...hard to call, but higher voter turnout amongst the elderly plus the popularity of off-shore drilling in the state could allow McCain to win here.

In the end, barring no shake-up,

Barack Obama-51.0%
John McCain-48.5%

Prediction of result on election night. McCain/Palin squeaks by, with building criticism of Obama's experience becoming a campaign focus. VA, OH, and CO historical Repiblican slant carry the day in a tight race in these states. GOP loses IA and NM. Based on roughly 49.5% voting McCain and 48.5% voting Obama.

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