Ok I moved Colorado back to Obama and changed New Hampshire from solid to lean Obama.

I'm getting much more pessimistic as we get closer to election day - bad news the polls are tightening (they will tighten further), and I figure at least a three point Bradley effect.

I think this is the realistic map right now, but really all the tossup states could go one way just as easily as the other.

Oops.. I got a little too overjoyed about the Depression and forgot about the Bradley Effect. This is the corrected map..

Well I flipped Virginia, moved New Hampshire to lean Democrat, and Wisconsin from lean to strong Democrat. I'm feeling a little more positive and hopeful FOR THE MOMENT.

OK, nevermind, I'm changing it again twice in one day. Great Depression II, folks.

Just moved some states from tossup to lean or lean to tossup to reflect the move towards Obama. I think he might pull out Nevada or Virginia.. I think NV is more likely so I shifted that one. Missouri or North Carolina are unlikely, Florida is certainly possible.. New Hampshire contrarian...

Swung Colorado back towards Obama. Moved VA and FL to tossups, but still send them to McCain.. might be flipping VA if things keep going Obama's way.

This time I just changed my confidence ratings.

Tragic but likely, and we all know why it is happening.

Clinton vs. McCain.

My current take on the two likely candidates - Clinton and McCain.

Obama vs. Huckabee.

I'm afraid most people are understimating the effect of american racism on an Obama candidacy.

Adjusted for Obama vs Huckabee.

I gave Colorado, Nevada, and Florida back and changed Kentucky to tossup and Arkansas to strong Dem.

Adding Florida, because I think that the anti-Republican mood will put it over the top in spite of its relatively good economy compared to the national one. The US economy is going down fast and hard, so I think this will effect even Florida.

I changed Arkansas to lean Democrat due to the polls, and added West Virginia as a tossup going Democrat as the economic situation is worsening quite markedly.

Just adding Arkansas as it looks like Hillary vs. Gulianai.

Padfoot has suggested that if Virginia is to go Democrat, West Virginia should also. I disagree, but due to his advice I have moved WV to 'tossup', though it will still go GOP I think. Alas, the rurals will vote for Thompson (who they will remember from Dukes of Hazard). Virginia's rurals will be slightly more apt to vote for Gore or Edwards, while those that don't will be heavily counterbalanced by the suburbanized area around Washington which will vote heavily Democrat. West Virginia, to its shame, boasts no large urbanizations which would rectify its rural shortcomings.

Just some more fine tuning.. I have a theory that only one's most recent versions count towards the median map.

Some fine tuning. Nevada is lean Democrat, Colorado is tossup, but both are heading Democrat. I chaned Alabama to 50% Republican because I think it might dip to 58-59% there rather than 60+%. Same with North Dakota.. probably very high 50's next time. Forget about 60% in Texas, as even though few of them vote, it is inexorably moving Democrat due to minorities (of course its still strongly Republican). Florida really could go either way but I see it as moving GOP due to the dying off of the more reasonable olds who remember real capitalism and their replacement by those who grew up made rich by the Democratic Party and Keyensianism (yokels and Cubans stay the same).

• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Presidential Prediction Home
• Update My 2008 Presidential Prediction Map