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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-30 Version:80

Prediction Map
Chica_Of_Light MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Chica_Of_Light MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem98
 
Rep440
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem77
 
Rep335
 
Ind0
 
Tos126
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-100-15410298-154
Rep+100+154000313286+154
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
49321043
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

The news just keeps on getting better for John McCain with early voters!

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows McCain leading Barack Obama among early voters 49% to 45% in Florida (no, not those indicating they will vote, but those that already have!)--with Democrats turning out to vote by greater than a double-digit margin over the Republicans! Apparently Democrats are abandoning the Democratic candidate by a significant percentage in the early vote. :))

Here it is:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-poll29-2008oct29,0,1658075.story

Notice that McCain is ACTUALLY LEADING in the early vote, despite other polls stating more voters INTEND to vote for Obama! This is great! "But McCain is slightly ahead in Florida among early-voting respondents, 49% to 45%," says the Los Angeles Times!

Perhaps a sign of things to come elsewhere?

According to a Las Vegas News Journal, a similar phenomenon is happening in Nevada! Early voters aren't breaking for Obama (even though most are Democrats), they're breaking for McCain! :))

I predict the polls will be way off!


Prediction History
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Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Chica_Of_Light (D-CA) 2008-10-30 @ 19:38:10
Less than or Equal to 4% = Tossup Candidate.

Less than or Equal to 8% = Lean Candidate.

Greater than 8% = Strong Candidate.
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 By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-10-30 @ 19:45:45
If this turns out to be correct I will worship the ground you walk on! LOLprediction Map

 By: Chica_Of_Light (D-CA) 2008-10-30 @ 19:52:50
Gceres! I predict it will! :))

Hey--weren't Democrats suppose to be voting for the Democrat this election and enthusiastic about Obama--not McCain!

Last Edit: 2008-10-30 @ 19:58:01
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 By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-10-30 @ 20:05:33
What I think is interesting is that like I said from the beginning, young voters are NOT turning out in droves and that will affect this election big time because every polling firm is overestimating the percentage of the turnout that will be under 30.prediction Map

 By: Chica_Of_Light (D-CA) 2008-10-30 @ 20:13:00
Gceres--you're right! It's precisely what some articles are beginning to notice. The under 30 vote is turning out for Obama--thus far at least--at lower than 2004 levels! Will they prove their commitment on November 4th? I dunno. We'll have to see.

(Personally I doubt it. If they're not taking their time to vote for Obama now, I doubt their numbers will improve much on Election Night when things are much more hectic and the lines rap around the block!)

Last Edit: 2008-10-30 @ 20:16:53
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 By: ZKBeta51 (L-VA) 2008-10-30 @ 20:18:34
I really like your map. If I see that on Tuesday it will be a glorious Wednesday. I, like you, think polling is way off this year.

Last Edit: 2008-10-30 @ 20:19:02
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 By: Republican08 (R-CT) 2008-10-30 @ 21:19:41
yeah, its very enthusiastic, I do wish to see this map it would make one hell of a specticul talk about a bardley affect, the only thing i have a hard time swalloing is that couldnt bush have done it in 2004 this big, but hey idk times are different lets go mccain!prediction Map

 By: axlee73 (I-GA) 2008-10-30 @ 22:07:16
Chica, could you post the LVNJ article reporting that according to certain poll, McCain is leading the early vote in NV?prediction Map

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-30 @ 22:18:42
Henggh?prediction Map

 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-30 @ 22:51:07
*Yawn* Here are early voting returns according to the latest survey USA polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

WI:
Obama: 61
McCain: 34

IA:
Obama: 69
McCain: 31

WA:
Obama: 59
McCain: 37

OH:
Obama: 56
McCain: 39

VA:
Obama: 67
McCain: 30

OR:
Obama: 62
McCain: 34

Etc.

FL is only closer because it has so many more old people and those folks vote absentee in droves (nursing homes usually have everyone vote absentee a couple weeks ahead, for example).

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 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2008-10-30 @ 22:55:38
I'll concede that the Florida early voting numbers are...unexpected. I'm wondering if they include absentee voting numbers, which would boost McCain's vote totals since the absentee voting numbers in Florida always favor the Republicans. If it doesn't, then I highly doubt the validity of this poll. Regardless, your map is absurd. Even if Obama does lose Florida, which is possible as it is a tossup state, and even if he does lose the election, which is highly unlikely but at least possible in theory, there is no possible way that McCain is going to pull off a landslide like this. Either you're just trying to annoy the crap out of people who actually like to make legit predictions, or you're in a state of denial about where this race actually is.

Edit: nice data Pace, that looks quite encouraging.

Last Edit: 2008-10-30 @ 22:56:49
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 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-30 @ 23:01:15
Some states more than others... I'm actually a little concerned at the early voting turnout though. In OH and IA, for example, the turnout is, respectively 22 and 32%. That is where the numbers need to be - essentially it means McCain needs to win 3:2 on election day just to break even.

Some other states early voting turnout is only around 10% though. I thought it would be higher...
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 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2008-10-30 @ 23:24:23
Well, as long as we get everyone to vote at some point before the polls close, it'll work out fine anyway.

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 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-31 @ 00:46:18
I'm starting to worry about R.I. This is the second Republican map that has put that state into McCain's column. Obama should have Biden campaign there just to be safe. prediction Map

 By: jeron (I-NLD) 2008-10-31 @ 00:52:53
I would love to see the look on this hysteric's face by 9 p.m. on Tuesday as all the major networks call the election for Obamaprediction Map

 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-10-31 @ 02:20:38
Pace . . . those are NOT EARLY VOTER RETURNS (but nice try!). Those are polls of voters indicating who they will vote for! :)) And the source you should be citing is the Surveyusa website ( http://www.surveyusa.com/ ) which states clearly what those polls are--right there smack on the Front page! Nope: they're definitely NOT EARLY VOTING RETURNS! :))

No, early voting surveys are stating something different!

The fact is McCain is over-performing polls when you compare early ACTUAL voters to the polls!

Last Edit: 2008-10-31 @ 03:08:39
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 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-31 @ 02:56:15
Yeah, I mean now that the Clinton Democrats have become Republicans, I can't wait till four years down the road when they say "Party Unity My Ass!" to the GOP and that, my friends, will be the final death knell for the GOP. Or I have another idea, when McCain loses, just say "National Unity My Ass" NUMA, as in the song "numa numa numa" and let's have a CIVIL WAR! prediction Map

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-31 @ 03:01:57
Let me tell you something, my friends, the GOP doesn't work that way. They aren't like the hippie Democrats who will let you have a primary battle. In the GOP you have to get in lockstep behind the ORDAINED CANDIDATE or be cast out into the further reaches. You're told who to support and what to support. When the GOP serves you McCain-Palin beans for dinner, you eat them and like them, goddamnit. None of this PUMA bullshit. You have been warned...Democrats...er Republicans.prediction Map

 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-10-31 @ 03:43:30
Well, I feel for you, Bush, but you are an Independent, not a Democrat, so I don't see why Democrats can't indulge--like you--in Independent streaks, too.

Anyway, I have some more bad news to share if you're an Obama fan. In a complete reversal from the trend over the last two months, McCain is now more trusted on the Economy, Taxes, and with the War in Iraq than Obama is (albeit slightly) according to a new Rassmussen poll released Thurdsay.

Here it is:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/
mccain_trusted_more_on_taxes_and_economy


This is a double-digit turn-around for McCain over the last few weeks!

Last Edit: 2008-10-31 @ 04:03:42
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 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2008-10-31 @ 04:02:04
Amazing how willing you are to see one random issue poll and claim its perfect in every way yet you dismiss all of the polling on who people are actually going to vote for.

You do realize actual socialism would never pass Congress, right? Fair and progressive taxation, yes, but socialism involves the elimination of the right to private property, and you wouldn't be able to find more than maybe two or three members of Congress who would support that (and that may even be a high estimate).

Last Edit: 2008-10-31 @ 04:09:02
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-10-31 @ 06:40:11
Socialist tendencies are creeping in all over the place in the last of the Bush years adn the bank bailout/ownership plan is just another example..btw I am an Obama supporter but my biggest issue is the national debt and the drain on our economy...if you figure we are spending about 500 billion dollars a year on debt servicing-which is just lost revenue and sucked out of the credit markets you can understand why i am pessimistic about our economic future which is a greater peril than terrorists to our future.

We need to cut spending, balance the budget and that will take some sacrifice in taxation...so I vote for barkely as my protest vote this year in MN and I am joined by more than 15% of my fellow citizens in MN!
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 By: satyrday (I-MI) 2008-10-31 @ 08:01:43
If Palin/McCain are so against socialism, and wealth sharing, then she needs to ask every Alaskan to send back the check that she gave them from the oil company profits. Those oil companies worked hard for that money, so why should they be penalized for being successful? Damn you, Marxist Communist Pinko Sarah Palin!! I know you can see Russia, but why do you want to BE Russia?prediction Map

 By: axlee73 (I-GA) 2008-10-31 @ 09:31:08
Now, McCain is so ahead that he decides to campaign in Arizona on Monday!!!prediction Map

 By: axlee73 (I-GA) 2008-10-31 @ 09:41:02
BTW, if you look at the Florida absentee numbers, about 1.6MM requested, over 1.2MM returned. That is where GOP has 2-1 advantage (in terms of requestees' party registration). And that was where most of Bush04's winning margin coming from.

IF (a big IF) McCain only leads 4% in Early in-person voing + Absentee 3 days ago, and with Early voting still going on, he'd better turn out a monster load of people on the election day.
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 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-31 @ 10:01:29
Re polls vs returns:

Chica I am confused, because you are also citing polls of early voters to make your point...

1) Your analysis begins with the line "A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows McCain leading Barack Obama among early voters 49% to 45% in Florida..."

2) It is illegal to report voting returns before the polls close. So the only way that anybody could know about them legally is through polls.

In short, the numbers you are trumpeting from FL are based on polling (which, BTW, you don't believe in). I should also note that other polls have shown the spread among early voters in FL to be similar to the one I reported for other states.
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 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-31 @ 11:15:11
Yeah, why are you suddenly using polls Chica. They're wrong right? So this turn around you speak of...means nothing on your own admission. prediction Map

 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-31 @ 12:52:01
New Poll from Indiana...

Race Tied, but among early voters it is:

Obama: 64
McCain: 32

Personally, I'm still unsure what to make of the early voting numbers. It does not look like early voting in 2008 will reach the levels it did in 2004 and I am not sure why all the media stations are reporting "Record Early Voting Numbers" when polling does not reflect this at all.

Of course, this could be because Republicans are voting in lower numbers this year...and the polling does support that *so far*.

I'm also reminded of the Democratic primary in Texas. Obama led Clinton 63% to 32% in early voting and she still beat him...
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 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-31 @ 16:08:50
VT... dude that's kind of inappropriate. No call for going personal on Chica like that... and really no call ever for calling somebody a "bull dyke". prediction Map

 By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-10-31 @ 17:13:06
he cannot even spell lesbian right! Not shocking from a cultist though (pace you are not included in this :-)...you are actually pretty decent!)...FiveSenses has told me to "f" myself (he spelled it out) twice in 24 hours now...the moderators removed it.prediction Map

 By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-10-31 @ 17:14:18
btw VT...I reported your comments to the moderators.prediction Map

 By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-10-31 @ 17:15:38
well pace...about a month ago a cultist wished I would die of AIDS and burn in hell so I'm not shocked that yet another cultist says something vile.

Last Edit: 2008-10-31 @ 17:20:03
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 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-10-31 @ 17:18:17
Bull dyke? *LOL* Nah; far from it! I'm a straight as an arrow! And no--should Obama win--I will accept it, albeit very unhappily. However, considering that it is some Democrats that are calling for Civil War should McCain win, I think you should be listing those telophone numbers on a few liberal blog sites, vt500ascott!

And pace--who said the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll of Early voters are STATE RETURNS? I didn't (though you indicated such a thing of the polls you mentioned! :)) ) No, the polls released by Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg are early voter survey stats . . . you know: people that have already voted--not those indicating they have yet to vote!

McCain: on the cusp of victory, soon to demolish Socialist dreams!



Last Edit: 2008-10-31 @ 17:35:54
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-10-31 @ 17:26:02
vt500ascott says:
"The only people in the world who are so out of touch with reality are lezbians. You're not a lezbian, are you Chica? You're not some nasty bull dyke who can't stand the fact that a MAN just absolutely STOLE Hillary's candidacy, are you?"

My main issue with this is why are the blatantly sexist and homophobic comments consistantly coming from the left on this forum? Isn't it the right wing that is "homophobic?" Isn't it the Democratic party that is the party that supports the rights of gay/lesbian people and "supports" the rights of women? Perhaps the animosity is because so many of Hillary supporters were gay or female and the left is still upset that Hillary "stood in the way" of their liberal idol/icon for 6 months? CLEARLY, this is how you all get the "cult" label from the right. If you aren't with Obama you are against Obama- same as Bush in 2004!!! If you supported Hillary, "there is something wrong with you." That is the sign of cult like behavior.

Of course thanks to the economic crisis, I would venture to guess that 90% of Hillary's people are on board with Obama! They are going to vote for him and he will have a healthy win because of them, so why be so hateful towards them? You all are getting what you have wanted from day one yet you are so full of anger and open hosility that its impossible for many of us to take you serious and therefore take your candidate serious. When you degrade certain groups of people you do your candidate a disservice because you alienate people. And as a Democrat, the party "for women," its a joke to see such poor behavior towards women. Many of you ardent supporters of Obama should be thankful to many women who have been able to get past the treatment Clinton received by Mr. Obama, his supporters, and the media (though I admit her campaign loss was just as much her own fault). Hillary's women, or as you would say her "bull dykes" are not the ones that won't support your candidate- they WILL! It's primarily Clinton's MEN that won't vote for Obama- NOT her women. And as one of her men and as much as I personally dislike Mr. Obama, I'm 100% willing to give him a chance when he wins. Of course he could have given us a chance and given our candidate at least the offer of a VP, in that she did receive more votes than he did, but he isn't that big of a person. Just a big ego.

Once again if you had something to say about Jews or Blacks (god forbid), you would have your comment deleted and you would be off the forum. You are lucky you chose a homophobic statement because those are tolerated on this forum!

Last Edit: 2008-10-31 @ 17:28:51
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-10-31 @ 17:27:42
Ignore it Chica! Hes not worth it. Thank you Gceres, but you only get your comment deleted if you say "black." lol... prediction Map

 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2008-10-31 @ 17:37:06
vt: Don't you think its a bit hypocritical for an Obama supporter to be throwing around unsubstantiated and false accusations and then argue that the same is unfair against Obama? There shouldn't be any of this personal smearing going on anywhere, and what you said crosses the line between fierce political debate and vitriolic mud-slinging.

I'm not a fan of Chica's political stance, but I'm not about to make character accusations.

Last Edit: 2008-10-31 @ 17:38:10
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-10-31 @ 18:06:35
I have supported Chica's right to say and feel what she wants, I have agreed with much of what she says although my conclusion is for Obamaprediction Map

 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-10-31 @ 22:24:19
Like most fascists, you people have absolutely no sense of humor....prediction Map

 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2008-10-31 @ 22:39:45
No, you just have no sense of good taste.prediction Map

 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-01 @ 09:53:36
Good taste should never get in the way of good humor.

But that aside, I abhor people who are out of touch with reality. I might hate George Bush with every fiber of my being, but that did not prevent my acknowledgment that the 2004 election was going to be close and that George Bush was going to win states like Texas, Mississippi and Alabama without question. Just because one has a strong opinion does not mean that one has to live in the twilight zone or create some kind of ridiculous alternative reality. Chica is stone cold nuts. Either that or just the most obnoxious of trolls...
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 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-01 @ 09:59:44
PS - Can't wait to see McCain win Rhode Island. Love that prediction particularly...prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-01 @ 10:01:19
Oh Chica.
One thinks you may be a lonely girl on election night.
I hope you've got the grog ready to down your sorrows.
The Bradley effect (if there ever was one IMO) will turn out to be about as apparent as the Y2K debacle.
How about all those Dems voting in Republican North Carolina?
GOBAMA!
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-01 @ 10:02:26
PS hell will freeze over before Rhode Island votes for McCain in this election.
& if ever a George W state is going to turn on the Republicans watch Iowa on election night - long gone.
It's been great to see McCain keep going back on a lost cause, probably about as good as him spending all that time in Pennsylvania when he should have been in Flordia, Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina, probably even in New Hampshire.
What a shoddy campaign.
I'm shocked.
Obama defeated Hillary & he is going to make mincemeat of McCain, cause McCain has had nothing on Hillary.

Last Edit: 2008-11-02 @ 06:04:33
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-01 @ 10:13:52
vt500ascott says:
"The only people in the world who are so out of touch with reality are lezbians. You're not a lezbian, are you Chica? You're not some nasty bull dyke who can't stand the fact that a MAN just absolutely STOLE Hillary's candidacy, are you?"

"Good taste should never get in the way of good humor."

No, but it should certainly get in the way of bad, nasty, disgusting humor like this kind of innuendoes. I'm 100% behind Obama and I think Chica lives in self-deceit but that kind of comment is just not funny and if you think otherwise, then you need to buy yourself a new sense of humor real quick.
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-01 @ 12:07:06
Humor isn't exactly a nationwide thing. There are people with the exact same gross humor as yours in France, and there are people on this very site with a humor much more refined and in fact much more funny. But obviously you need a simpler world to grasp so just go on with your anti-French stuff.

And may I add that using this kind of gross and unpleasant talk undermines the candidate you support. Since it apparently is the same as mine, I'm calling you on it.
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 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-01 @ 14:36:14
You don't like MY sense of humor and that somehow undermines the political candidate I support? Wow, Chica isn't the only one living in the twilight zone around here.

And while we're on the topic of nations, unless you are still a US citizen (which granted is a possibility), I'm the only one who actually HAS a candidate...

You know, I've got a good friend in Lyons named Claude Marie LeMaire. You know why I like her so much? She hates the French!!
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-01 @ 14:46:33
I'm not particularly fond of my country either but I don't like xenophobia on a general principle. And Lyon has no s. And French names have no capital letter except at the beginning.
And I have as much as right to support any candidate I want in any country I want and so would you -if you know (which granted is a possibility) anything about any foreign politics.

And you're right after all. Being obnoxious shames noone but you.
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 By: hotpprs (R-NY) 2008-11-01 @ 16:24:49
"Obama defeated Hillary & he is going to make mincemeat of McCain, cause McCain has had nothing on Hillary."

Fortunately McCain has two advantages that Hillary didn't have.
1) There are no caucuses in the general election.
2) Everyone can vote in every state. In the primaries, some were open, and some just for that party.
The Democrats cannot use their primary tricks to help steer this outcome. If Hillary had the same rules for the primaries as the general election, she would have been the nominee easily.
That is why McCain will win, unless there is gross voter fraud.
Also, the McCain supporters are much more energized through fear of losing.
Although the true Democratic base of Obama supporters are highly energized, I don't think the fringe voters, or leaners for Obama are going to be as energized as the McCain supporters as a whole.
You will probably be reading about this Wedneday and Thursday when the pollsters are trying to defend their poor performance.
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-01 @ 16:51:25
"That is why McCain will win, unless there is gross voter fraud."

If reality is not the way I want it to be, then it must be that the bad guys cheated!
Mommy, can you make the bad guys go away so I can dream on peacefully?
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 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-01 @ 20:00:07
On a conciliatory note, your English is excellent...prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-02 @ 06:01:19
Hillarious.
McCain is toast & you know it hotpprs.
Yeah the only fraud I can recall of recent elections has come from one side - the Republican side.
Just this week I was reading how they threw out 18,000 votes in Jacksonville, Florida in 2000, in a predominantly Black district - & Bush "won" by 500 votes - yeah right.
I have no doubt they'll be up to it again if they can.
As Obama says Power won't give up without a fight!


Last Edit: 2008-11-02 @ 06:03:06
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-02 @ 06:06:10
Vive La France!
(except for what they did in Rwanda, & nuclear testing in my Pacific backyard).
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-02 @ 07:03:08
And except for the Vichy regime, the Napoleonic wars, etc., etc.
Re Nuclear testing: we used to do it in Algeria but when they became independent they didn't agree any more, so we just moved to French Polynesia :-)
I agree, both are not proud moments of our recent history.

But on Iraq Chirac was right!

@ vt: thanks for the compliment. Can't wait to read your French ;-).

Re voter fraud: I agree with demboy, and I think voter fraud is one of the major reasons the electoral college system, though mathematically stimulating, should be abandoned. When you can eke out a win by stealing a few thousand votes in one particular state, voter fraud is profitable. When the election is straight popular vote nationwide, it's useless. Even if you can cheat 100,000 votes away from the ballot (or add them in), that generally won't put you over the top.

In France, where we have a presidential run-off election with a popular vote system, we never have voter fraud, or it is extremely marginal (and only for the uninominal legislative election or the city councils). For instance, our closest election ever, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing's in 1974 (who won 50.8 to 49.2 over François Mitterrand), the margin was 400,000 votes. That's not an amount you can steal without being caught.

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 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-02 @ 11:38:36
vt500ascott's major linguistic accomplishment is his ability to say "crazy" in seven different languages.
English - crazy
Spanish - loco
Hebrew - meshuga
Russian - shetshieh
Hindi - pagal
Chinese - fongtzuh
Hmmmm, that's only six languages. Apparently I'm not so good math neither...
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 By: colin (R-ON) 2008-11-02 @ 11:59:41
okay ascott, you've redeemed yourself...that was funny lolprediction Map

 By: dgentile (G-NY) 2008-11-02 @ 13:13:59
The original premise for this scenario, that huge numbers of Democratic leaning voters, who have been contributing small amounts to Obama in record numbers, are suddenly so shocked and outraged to find that he is receiving huge numbers of small contributions, that they throw aside their beliefs and principles that led them to contribute in the first place, in order to make him suffer the same horrid fate they are willing to impose on themselves just for spite, is self contradictory and entirely implausible.prediction Map

 By: tmthforu94 (R-KS) 2008-11-03 @ 21:40:07
Is this a serious prediction???prediction Map

 By: K.Dobrev (O-BGR) 2008-11-06 @ 10:00:34
Chica, what's your commentary on the results?prediction Map

 By: nrafter530 (D-NY) 2008-11-06 @ 10:07:39
so much for that theory, huh?prediction Map

 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-06 @ 11:26:49
She (he) is too busy flushing herself (himself) down the toilet to answer you, nraf...prediction Map

 By: satyrday (I-MI) 2008-11-06 @ 14:05:04
Whoa, this map stinks. Don't go into the prediction business.prediction Map

 By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2008-11-06 @ 17:18:26
For dinner tonight, we're serving up some CROW!prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-06 @ 17:41:40
Bird is the word.prediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 18:00:00
By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 17:58:17
By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-10-22 @ 17:34:58
Predictions for surprises for Election Night as of today (I reserve the right to revise and extend these predictions LOL):

1. Virginia is 53 to 47 and not close.

2. New Mexico is super tight and goes McCain.

3. Colorado, 52 to 48 McCain.

4. Pennsylvania...no landslide here...really close...edge Obama...not called until late.

5. Indiana & Kentucky...first two states...both called immediately.

6. Florida...not decided on Election Night.

7. North Carolina...closer than Virginia.

8. Sleeper race...Washington State is closer than expected and not immediately called...Obama wins by a couple of points.



As we can see, Gceres is a loser, and was wrong on every single prediction.

The biggest losers on this website?

Chica of Light, Gceres and Conservative Republican. All of whom let their bitterness and distortion cloud their judgment.

Chica was so bitter Hillary lost, she convinced herself Obama was going to be blown out of the water with a "Bradley Effect" which did not exist.

Gceres and Conservative Republican ignored any bit of information they didn't want to hear, and convinced themselves that they were the real Americans, and that there was a conspiracy by the pollsters and the media to paint the world more liberal than it actually is. Their attitude and philosophy, and their refusal to adapt and reason is the reason why the Republicans lost, and they will continue to lose until they wise up.

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 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 18:41:17
By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 18:23:15
Biggest losers of 08

#8 Joe Lieberman - Mr. Lieberman let his hatred of muslims and his religious partisan ship destroy his dignity and cost him memebership in the democratic party.

#7 Elizabeth Dole - Her holier than thou art attitude cost her the election

#6 John McCain - Sold his soul and ran a negative campaign full of lies. His choice to run to the right in the worst year to do so might have cost him the election.

#5 PUMA and the bitter Hillary vote - So bitter that they lost the primary, they sold their souls to get revenge and it got them nowhere. These people showed their true colors and put their bitterness above their values.

#4 Sarah Palin - The worst possible pick for VP. She made such a fool of herself with her ignorance and extremism she will forever be seen as a laughing stock.

#3 The Bradley Effect - Absolutely no evidence of it existing

#2 Out of Touch Republicans - Their refusal to listen to anything that contradicts their world view, they convinced themselves they would win the election and that they were the "real americans". They try to mask their extremism as "mainstream values" and it once again cost them the election. They will continue this trend for quite some time until the party changes idenity.

#1 Baseless, fear based character attacks against liberals - These attacks finally lost out for the American public finally voted on the issues. Fool us once, shame on you, fool us twice shame on us and to sort of quote G W. Bush, Fool us the second time, we can't get fooled again.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-06 @ 19:05:54
I agree with everything you've said for a change Five :) - in previous post only, haven't read anything else yet.
The Bradley Effect - what a complete joke.
As it should be.
PUMA - still don't know what this stands for, but as a former Hillary supporter I found this completely discouraging & bad sportsmanship.
The fact that Hillary campaigned for Obama 75 times, & came out strongly for him after the Primaries & at the Convention should have (& did for most of us) cancel out any lingering hard feelings.
The fact that Obama & Hillary were almost indentical on policies just made this even more weird to me.
I hope the Dems expel Joe Lieberman from their caucus, let him sit with the Republicans where he now belongs, & let the voters of Connecticut judge him on this next time around I say.
It's ok to support McCain but as a "Democrat" or Independent Democrat or whatever he calls himself these days his negativity in the campaign against Obama went too far IMO.
Anyway I think Obama will prove to be more bipartisan than most of us & probably won't encourage this type of action.
I wouldn't be surprised if Lieberman leaves on his own accord.

Last Edit: 2008-11-06 @ 19:29:51
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 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-07 @ 21:25:09
Let's not get too smug kiddos. The difference between this election and last election? Four percent of the electorate. All the horrors of the administration only changed the minds and votes of four percent of the electorate. John McCain still got 46% of the vote. And I think that's as good as it's going to get. 46% of the electorate is beyond hope.

Oh, and Chica is a giant joke...
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 22:03:37
Im so honored to be considered "beyond "hope" "

Truly make me feel proud to have voted against all this hype.

If he delivers on all this smooth talk then I will vote for his re-election but that is highly unlikely as at the current moment I still dont like him.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 22:04:19
The few the proud the 46% !prediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-07 @ 22:28:53
vt500. The future is unknown, but a black candidate winning by 6 % points even in this political climate is huge.

Obama could fail, sure, but let us not forget, he could also open this electoral map up even wider. Nothing would stop the cynics further than proving himself beginning to solve many of the problems we have in this country. Those who use his experience as an excuse not to vote for him will not be able to do so in 4 years, because after all, after 4 years Obama will have more experience than anyone. If he does prevail, I bet he could open the electorate up to an almost Reagan/FDR electoral map.
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 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-07 @ 22:32:32
PUMA= Party Unity My Ass

Clearly you can see, with a title like this, why these people are some of the biggest losers of this election. Everyone from that group I have ever seen is a bunch of bitter, ugly, immature, self loathing bit example of human being. The only thing they were successful in proving was that they really never stood for anything, at all.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 22:57:46
yawn.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-08 @ 00:13:37
Party unity looks to be even, with about 90% of each party voting for their candidate nationally according to CNN exit polls. Democrats won because they had a higher turnout than Republicans.

This is in large part due to enthusiasm, but also the Republicans were out-organized.


Last Edit: 2008-11-08 @ 00:14:12
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 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-08 @ 10:14:32
This had nothing to do with hype. The Democrats could have nominated a paperweight and it should have gotten more than 53% of the vote. After the last eight years, that 46% of the electorate could vote for a Republican candidate is mind-boggling. Something like 90% of the country think that we're headed in the wrong direction, yet fully half of those people voted for full steam ahead. Sad...prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-08 @ 10:20:32
Despite differences, Chica, it was a pleasure debating you on a number of occasions. I wish you all the best for your future.prediction Map

 By: jlorenzen (D-OH) 2008-11-08 @ 12:46:04
Respectfully Chica, now that it is over, can you enlighten us with your thoughts? What made you go completely against what every source was indicating?prediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-08 @ 14:14:26
Chica is missing in action. prediction Map

 By: Tokar (D-VA) 2008-11-08 @ 14:49:57
Idiots like Gceres are also MIA.prediction Map

 By: palinode (G-CA) 2008-11-08 @ 15:58:16
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! WRONG MUCH?! ROFLMAO....prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-08 @ 17:42:29
Okay guys that's enough. Now lets follow Mr. Obama's lead and reach out across the aisle to those that didn't support him. Come on Chica! I will protect you.

@VTscott- I think the 46 or 47% number just goes to show you how divided this country really is. There is a great deal of polarization and not much room for error in reaching out to voters. Clearly the Dems got out their base and the GOP got out their base, but it appears that Independents sided with the Dems as in 2006.
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 By: alexchanning (G-NY) 2008-11-08 @ 18:25:18
Agreed Doniki.

I never, ever thought I would see a liberal, a true liberal (is he the first since FDR?) in the White House.

That said, I hope Obama asks McCain to either join his cabinet (Sec of Defense?) or head a committee to look into cutting waste out of the defense budget.

Also, I already have disappointments with Obama. Change.gov? Wtf? It makes me feel like change is now officiated and if that's the case, what am I fighting for?

And that sign on the podium? Office of President-Elect. OK... we know you're president elect, and clearly you have to remind some people who don't understand the political process that you are not automatically president now. Inauguration is 3 months from now. But that sign, and that seal, are fugly.
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 By: alexchanning (G-NY) 2008-11-08 @ 18:27:06
Whoops, I'm on my boyfriend's computer. Forgot that I wasn't signed in on my name. Try to figure out who I am! :Dprediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-08 @ 18:28:42
McCain would be the worst possible choice for Sec. of Def.

Obama wants out of the war... is not a hawk... its probably in the end the only reason he beat out Hillary in the primary...

And McCain was up Bushes ass so far on the war, is a Hawk and a war monger... bad bad bad choice.

If he wants to pick someone for Sec. of Defense that is a Republican, it would have to be Hagel, and if he wants McCain to help him (which I would argue against that because of he mean spirited way in which he ran his campaign) I would say your later choice is much more likely.
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 By: Lamrock (D-WA) 2008-11-08 @ 22:17:53
The most baffling thing about this map is Utah only going 50% for McCain in such a drubbing.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-08 @ 22:50:38
Hagel or Lugar would be good picks. All the talk of keeping Gates around makes me physically ill.prediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-10 @ 23:57:37
Chica Chica calling Chica, does she have the guts to show up?prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-11 @ 00:00:18
Omg get over it...you won already! dont be an ass, opps Im sorry thats unavoidable.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-11 @ 05:13:31
No I agree, I predicted she would run in hiding (as is her right, hell I would too) & we would not hear back from her after her very bold Tom Bradley effect predictions.
Which went down in a smoking heap!
Love it.
But it's all good.
I look forward to reading Chica's posts in 4 years.

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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-11 @ 10:51:18
Who - what's your beef with Gates staying on? I see value in consistency with our guys in the field. No way McCain would be considered for the post. Lugar said no, but Hagel is a possibility.prediction Map

 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-11-11 @ 14:19:07
No kidding...I'm actually looking forward to the GOP nominating contest posts in about 2 years!

My prediction: A street brawl between the country club wing and the activist win of the Rep party (who, BTW, all think they lost the election because they were not conservative and divisive ENOUGH).

I hope Sarah Palin takes up the banner for the activist wing, because she could probably pull off the nomination and send all the country club republicans running for the exit while holding their noses!

So there was no real re-alignment this election; Dems voted in higher than usual numbers and more Reps stayed home. But if Obama does a half decent job as President that could change four years from now.

In any case, it will be truly delicious to watch!
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 By: hotpprs (R-NY) 2008-11-11 @ 19:12:34
I think the only chance Palin has for a future in national politics, is to get into the Senate, which is a fair chance depending on what happens with Senator Stevens, and a possible special election.
From there, she would have to be real careful about her voting record, whom she aligns with, and spending a lot of time on network and cable news shows. They love what she does to their ratings, that should be the least of her obstacles.
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 By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2008-11-11 @ 21:31:07
^^Agreed. She has no shot at the presidency, ever.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-11 @ 22:52:07
4 years is an enernity in politics. Never say never! Many thought Reagan was toast after he lost to Ford in 1976. They called him eratic and out of touch too extreme for America many blamed him for the division in the party and Fords lost because the "extreme" wing of the party supported him thus he would remain unelectable in their eyes until 1980. Many questioned his intelligence as a movie star.

Now my point is not to compare Palin to the persona that was Reagan it is simply to point out that 4 years much can change. Public Opinion is not set in stone and changes with the issues of the time and performance of the incumbent often times. My point is even if you depise her or think she is not intelligent enough to get elected I say rethink that. Look at some of the past presidents that were elected even many that beat out incumbents and ones who have assumed power and studied public opinion at the time.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-12 @ 08:28:59
I never liked the CIA guys I suppose.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-12 @ 11:16:56
I suspect that Mrs. Palin will have enough problems in her home state of AK to deal with before there could be any serious talk of a national setting for her again.

She may want to take a geography course as well.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-13 @ 00:40:24
The whole she didnt know africa was a continent and the outrageous charges against her are laughable. Like her or not its just a nasty smear by a bitter infighting post loss of a campaign. If there were doubts about Palin Mc Cains team should not have censored her from media attention.

Never have we seen such post election coverage on a losing vice presidential candidate including the first female vp candidate Ferraro didnt get this much attention. Again like her or not she is staying in the spotlight and I believe she does in fact have higher aspirations.
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 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-13 @ 01:06:08
Never ever underestimate a social, christians conservative's lack of knowledge. These are the people who think that people rode around on dinosaurs and that you can pray the gay out of people, and you are having a problem believing she thinks Africa is a country? Give me a break. prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-14 @ 11:29:18
Actually, many people don't make a perfect distinction between countries and continent, especially about Africa (don't ask why...). Generally, these people are not very open to either the world, human sciences, or knowledge in general. I see Palin open to none of the above. She is not intellectually qualified to be anything more than Governor of Alaska. I'm sorry, but being incapable of making a coherent policy statement after two months of training is just impossible unless you're not quite as smart as you should be or you're completely lazy.

Yes she has ambition. She might run the "I'm a dumb average American" campaign Bush ran, she just won't have the Bush machine and that's a major disadvantage, and she won't be able to appear as centrist as Bush did the first time.
I think she'd lose in primary anyway. I mean, Palin, organizing an Iowa caucus campaign? Please... Even Hillary messed up doing that.
Palin, winning in New Hampshire? Yeah right. Even the GOP base isn't that conservative there. Just guess why McCain lost it so badly...
OK, she might win South Carolina.
That is, if she holds on until SOuth Carolina.

Politically, she's toast. Begich is going to take Stevens seat, Palin will get her stupid reelection in 2010, she might try to run in late 2011 early 2012 and then the joke is over.
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 By: Indi-rocks (R-CA) 2008-11-15 @ 13:18:13
(Liberalrocks-now Indi-rocks)
If social conservative Mike Huckabee of all people could win Iowa then so could Sarah Palin. Huckabee had been vastly outspent in iowa by Mittens Romney. Huckabee also narrowly lost South Carolina, if he had beat Mc Cain there we could have seen a different race this year. If Huckabee had carried South Carolina that would have given him better momentum going into Super Tuesday. Iowa as a whole is not a "conservative" bastion but the base of the republican party that would show up to caucus ARE. As the democratic base that showed up were liberal and young (Iowa as a whole is NOT a young state full of vigor) those were who happened to caucus in large numbers.

Sarah Palin has the name recognition that Huckabee did not have going in to Iowa she would also likely have quite a bit more money. Now it remains to been seen if it would be enough if Mittens were to run again. Mittens said he wouldnt per his family but we all know how that goes in politics(Nixon).



Last Edit: 2008-11-15 @ 13:22:06
 

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-15 @ 15:55:27
You have made good points here and I guess I just have to rescind mine, but I still have trouble seeing Palin working out her own national primary. I think the next four years will be determining for her. If she can manage to build a network in the GOP, if she can have a national organization well managed enough, if she can improve her electability as far as competence is concerned, then maybe she has an inkling of a chance.
And you mention Huckabee: maybe she'll do just like him - a two-month flame and then not so much.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-15 @ 16:36:03
A week is a lifetime in politics, All im saying is not to get so confident that she cant do it.

The country has elected presidents that people would have never thought would have been able to be elected a couple years before they got nominated. Obama, Bush , Reagan all fit those bills as being written off as unelectable or too extreme at one point.

We will also have to wait and see how the messiah performs. My mind is not made up contrary to other posters comments about my "bitter"ness
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-15 @ 17:58:39
Glad to know you're still opened to grudgingly admit Obama is good for the US -if indeed he delivers, which is not a safe assertion given the circumstances and the many unknowns.
You're right about a week being a lifetime, but I think comparing Reagan or Obama or even the Bushes with Palin is comparing two very charismatic men and one very strong electoral machine with an incompetent and not very bright governor of a small state. Still, she does sell well with some Republicans and I wouldn't write her off for Republican nominee. But Obama would need to fail BIG TIME for her to have a teensy chance in the general election.
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 By: Indi-rocks (R-CA) 2008-11-20 @ 23:12:37
Bonn-
I will stop calling him messiah when his "base" of cult followers stop treating him as such.

This is America and we are free to address our leaders in any way we see fit. He may be ready to occupy the office but he is no messiah of mine.

Oh and FYI I was not in college nor have I been this past year. I was a student in the past so before you begin to spill my life story you might want to check your facts. I never once said I attended -any- course this year. Nor am I a kid, im pushing 30.

Im a full time worker who objects to Mr Messiahs economic policies of Spread the Wealth and all these promises wont pay for themselves.


Last Edit: 2008-11-21 @ 10:28:55
 

 By: Indi-rocks (R-CA) 2008-11-20 @ 23:20:39
Five if you read the comments from above I never addressed anyone on this page with profanity prior to Mr Caruso's medicine post. I was having a discussion with French Ed which on this page had been a couple of days back only to read "my medicine" today.

He took it there,and I kept it there Im not going to be talked to that way without an appropriate response I would have much preferred to keep it civil but I will not take the "high" road with that kind of slam. What an ass.

Last Edit: 2008-11-20 @ 23:36:36
 

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-21 @ 00:37:39
You are obviously just bitter. I don't think you even know what you stand for, and its a sad lot. You trash the very types of politicians that are mostly likely to defend your human rights. And its strange you imply Obama supporters are cultists when your whole bitter attitude is cultivated because *you* had a cult-like obsession with Hillary Clinton, a candidate who holds almost identical views with the very types of liberals you are trashing. Its ironic to say the least. prediction Map

 By: Indi-rocks (R-CA) 2008-11-21 @ 01:11:34
Oh Please....I am a fan of the accomplishments and record of Hillary Clinton something that the messiah can only talk about. His record cant hold a candle to anything that eithier of the Clintons have done in their entire lifetime.

I dont go around with pictures of Hillary Clinton plastered every where like the cult like fans of Obama nor did I ever utter Hillary mania when she was ahead in the primaries. I had been excited because I know she is a talented capable woman with the know how to get the job done. I also remember just how good things were with the Clintons and its very discouraging to see how there party tossed them aside for an attractive mantra and the ideal of the first black president. Had the economy not been an issue Mc Cain would have won.
 

 By: Indi-rocks (R-CA) 2008-11-21 @ 01:14:22
As For the liberals I "trash" No your right please do not put me in the lot.

Many things in life are "ironic" so is the fact that the best man or candidate doesnt always win.
 

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-21 @ 05:56:50
Tja, he proved my point for me. Idiots always do this.

He voted with people who wanted to pass Prop 8. He shot himself in the foot. Need I say more?
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-21 @ 14:26:56
Oooh Drama! lol...Idiots? Come on! What about the idiots that were so hyped up for Obama that they came out in droves for him to vote and in the process voted Yes on Prop 8- something Obama didn't even support? Interesting that some people think they are "owed" a certain degree of civil rights, but others are not.

I'm content to trash liberals and conservatives, when need be. I've developed a total disregard for both parties in this process. Its fun disliking everyone. lol... But, as a Clintonista, I have my autograph of Hillary, I got from the primaries, on the wall in the computer room. I also have Bill's "My Life" autographed. I think I will now call the Franklin Mint and order those Barack Obama commemorative plates and commemorative coin sets to ad to my Democratic paraphernalia. I hope the plates come by Thanksgiving. Nothing would give me more pleasure than to serve Yams on Obama's face to 10 of my dearest and nearest relatives who voted for him! :)

Last Edit: 2008-11-21 @ 14:31:26
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-21 @ 16:10:03
Interesting theory on prop. 8, but Obama voters weren't determinative. Older voters were.

When does the SOS Clinton commemorative china come out?
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-21 @ 16:34:48
@Wingindy- Its no theory!... A certain group, that I shall not name, BECAUSE I WILL BE CALLED A RACIST, voted 70-30 for prop 8. I'm waiting to see whom the new most oppressed minority group is? Maybe we can now do away with Affirmative Action because all though it is good in theory it has been totally abused!

I'm not sure about the Clinton SOS plates. But I will let you know. I think they have to see if Bill took any donations from any companies that produce the china in, well China, I guess???
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 By: Xahar (D-GA) 2008-11-21 @ 19:09:45
Blacks v. gays. LOL.prediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-21 @ 22:20:00
This gay person is not in the black versus gay fight. It's ignorant, wether you are gay person hating blacks or a black person hating gays. prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-22 @ 07:41:14
And so begins the degeneration.. of honest debate....prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-22 @ 08:27:46
I'm not degenerating anything! Lol... You called LR an idiot and I'm just stating that there were many people that voted for Obama and then turned around and voted Yes on 8. There is homophobia in the black community and I'm not trying to "beat up" on blacks. I simply don't understand how when 70% of gays voted for Obama that 70% of blacks could vote Yes on 8? I don't hate black people, though I'm a bit nerved that despite work by Obama and Feinstein along with the Dem party in CA to get people to vote NO on 8, a supermajority of blacks voted Yes. That's called homophobia and one would expect that due to the oppression that blacks have faced over the years, they might be more sympathetic.

Honestly, Gay Marriage is the least of my worries. If it happens great and if not its only a matter of time. But it appears to me that this election is being made out to be a testament to equality, when that might not be true. Its WONDERFUL that we have a minority president (its one of the few things I like about him). On the other hand though it was a great election for blacks, women and gays got set back about 10-20 years.

Last Edit: 2008-11-22 @ 08:28:53
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-22 @ 09:19:27
Doniki, to put it the other way round, there were 30% of Blacks who actually stood for gay rights and 30% of gays who didn't by voting for McCain/Palin, whose position on gay marriage is very simply no as well as very ambiguous about a federal amendment which would be the greatest constitutional fraud since prohibition.

30% who helped the oppressed like themselves and 30% of masochists. There is no rationale to that either, but it shows how the vote is individual in the first place and you can't place the blame on a community.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-22 @ 12:32:42
I dispute that women and gays got set back 10-20 years by virtue of this election. Women were elected accross the country. North Carolina has its first female governor, and elected 44 women to the state legislature. New Hampshire its first female Senator, and for the first time, a MAJORITY in its state legislature are women. For the first time, a woman was a serious contender for a major party's presidential nomination, For the first time, a woman was on the Republican ticket, and is considered by many to be the frontrunner for the 2012 GOP nomination. Two women have already been tapped for major cabinet posts. As a result of this election, the next Supreme Court justice is virtually guaranteed to be a woman. NOW President Kim Gandy says, "We believe Obama-Biden will be the most feminist, progressive administration ever to lead this country, and we are ready to work hard to help bring about policies that will increase equality and opportunity for all."

As far as gays, the struggle continues. As with the civil rights movement, there will be blowback and reaction. The gay marriage ban in California has been taken up by that state's supreme court, and I suspect will be overturned. According to who's timetable, concocted when, was gay marriage expected to be legal, even in a few states, at this point in time? Perhaps gay rights has progressed ahead of schedule. Civil rights for women and blacks took much longer. The older voters that assured the proposals passage will not hold sway much longer. Portland elected an openly gay mayor, and Silveron, OR elected a transgender mayor. "Don't ask don't tell" is headed for the dustbin. If anything, gay and women's issues have been advanced, not set back, as a result of the 2008 elections.

It is certainly monumental that a black has been elected president. A black will serve as attorny-general for the first time. At the same time, the US Senate now has no African-American members, while 17 women will serve in the next Senate. So the record is mixed.

Last Edit: 2008-11-22 @ 12:34:02
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-22 @ 13:34:03
Well, to gauge the USA's advancement on gender issues, you may want to compare with France:
-Paris has an openly gay mayor since 2001, who won a landslide reelection in 2008.
-We have civil unions for gays nationwide since 1999, and public opinion favors gay marriage, and though there is no project to make it legal, it will probably be nationwide as well within ten years.
-Homophobic statements or statements vindicating hatred or violence against gays are a felony, and homophobia is an aggravating circumstance in case of violence or murder.

I agree with Wingindy -Clinton's failure is a setback for Clinton, not for women in general. Clinton furthered the cause of women and I think a woman will be elected President with a quarter of a century, with Vice President being probably sooner, perhaps as soon as 2012 if Biden steps down or Obama is defeated. Palin, unlike Ferraro (whose selection was an odd move if anything), really had that ANYONE quality to her which means any woman Senator or Governor is now a viable candidate for VP.
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-22 @ 16:46:49
I have no doubt that the Obama/Biden team will be ten times more friendly to women than Bush/Cheney. But again, Obama could have had a female VP, even if it was NOT Clinton, though it should have been since they did split the vote. My point has little to do with JUST Clinton. There were two women this year- polar opposites apart (NOTHING in common) and both were unsuccessful. Likewise there was only a net gain of 1 female in the Senate and possibly a O gain if Clinton steps down and Patterson appoints Cuomo. There was a net gain of 2 females in 2006. From my point of view, there were two things going on: 1.) incredible bias towards Obama and subsequent hype amongst liberals in the Dem party who wanted to rid the Dem party of anything perceived as moderate or "Clinton." 2.) a certain ambivilance towards womens rights and a female candidate by younger women, who really haven't grasped the more difficult steps it takes a woman to succeed in politics- as oppossed to a man.

For all her talk about the "Hardest, highest Glass Ceiling" and those "18 million cracks," Hillary is WRONG. Hillary made no cracks and many mistakes, but Hillary would be NOWHERE without her husband and as much as people like to say Bill hurt her, he actually was the only reason many voted for her. NO WAY would Ohio have voted for Hillary if it wasn't for her husband!!! At the same time, Palin would be NOWHERE had Obama chosen Hillary as VP. So they are both dependant upon the legacy/actions of a male, which is historically the tradition of women in politics.

A few of the questions that have gone through my mind include: how can America ever elect a female when two women with NOTHING in common, both lost? Why didn't women rally to one of them? Do women really want other women to succeed or do some women feel intimidated by other women in positions of power- possibly more so than men? I read an Op Ed in the NY times, I belive by Coco, but I could be wrong) about how many women do feel intimidated by people like Clinton/Pelosi/Palin, etc... because it makes some women feel that they have not surpassed the "standard set for them" by society, while other women have soared to power.

I recall Susan Sarandon saying in January about Clinton; "I want a woman president, but not that one." Of course there were a lot of liberal women that said that. Now once Clinton was out, John McCain gave them another chance with Sarah Palin and though she was the polar opposite of everything Hillary stood for, you heard conservative women like Peggy Noonan saying; "It's over. Palin is horrible." (I agree), but this was before Palin had her infamous interviews and was riding high with the GOP base and ex-Hillary women.

I just don't see how this was really a year for women. Women failed and failed miserably- maybe at their own hands. Maybe these were both two incredibly weak candidates? Maybe these were two candidates American's couldn't identify with? Maybe the media held them to a double standard by critiquing frivilous things such as hair, clothes, makeup, voice tone, etc... But then I get back to Maybe women don't always want other women to succeed?
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 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-22 @ 22:57:53
So, screw these silly rants by the former Hillary supporters, they are hilarious, but really, these people are so small they hardly matter.

I just want to know whatever happened to those loons Chica and Gceres. Did they commit suicide?
prediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-12-02 @ 20:38:41
The final nail in PUMA's coffin, Sec of State, Hillary Clinton. prediction Map

 By: Indi-rocks (R-CA) 2008-12-03 @ 23:16:16
Palin 2012! 

 By: tetanurae (D-WA) 2008-12-05 @ 11:12:06
Of all the hilarious things on this map.... Is that you have RI going McCain, but ME-02 going Obama.....prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-12-06 @ 08:52:43

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE UPDATE:


Currently, Obama's national average, which was at +6.98 on 12/02, has moved to +7.16, a margin jump of +0.18 in four days: The current national percentages and margin are pretty much in the middle between Obama's win in VA (+6.30) and CO (+8.95) and is now coming closer and closer to the national poll averages from 11/03.


If Obama holds at +7.16, then the national partisan shift from 2004 to 2008 would be: +9.62 (+7.16 - (-2.46) = +9.62)


The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 12/06, 08:00 EDT, the PV and percentages:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

130,700,139

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

69,077,276

52.85%

+9,361,935

+7.16%

McCain (R)

59,715,341

45.69%

Other:

1,907,522

1.46%


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.85%

52.77%

+0.08%

McCain (R)

45.69%

45.23%

+0.46%

All others

1.46%

2.00%

-0.54%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

69,077,276

59,715,341

1,907,522

130,700,139

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+10,048,837

-2,325,269

+683,023

+8,406,591


Tendency: Obama has moved above the 52.77% I predicted. Good for him, bad for me :) :) So, I have currently missed his winning percentage by 0.08%, but am now less than one half point away from McCain's percentage. If this trend continues for the remaining official results/canvasses, then Obama could rise to 52.87%-52.88% and McCain may sink to 45.67%-45.68%, so the margin may hit an even +7.20 for Obama.


Other than CA and TX, most of the big states have either final results or official canvasses. I suspect that there are less than 500,000 votes remaining outstanding, but we will probably go over 131 million votes in 2008. CA will put out it's official canvass on 12/13.

prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-12-22 @ 17:03:32
Accuracy below 50%... That's tough. Worse than just putting up the 2004 map and watching what happens.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 36/56 13/56 49/112 43.8% pie 80 5 1473T
P 2008 Dem Primary 36/52 21/52 57/104 54.8% pie 17 - 55T
P 2008 Rep Primary 39/49 12/49 51/98 52.0% pie 19 - 47T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 26 1T
Aggregate Predictions 114/160 49/160 163/320 50.9% pie


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