Comments History
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hideVersion: 28
Pennsylvania is McCain's only shot.
Version: 27
Still hoping for a miracle
Version: 26
Factors of Penn.
-racist voters in the western part (may lie to polls)
-if Phillies win world series in game 7 and if the parade is on Nov 4, some people in the eastern part of Penn (mostly Democratic) may forget to vote (may sound stupid but is a factor)
-Joe Biden is from Penn.
-Obama's statement about "Pennsylvania voters clinging to guns and religion."
-Obama lost primary there
Factors of New Jersey:
-surprisingly a lot of KKK groups (Bradley effect)
-central part is leaning Republican and racist groups are in Northern and Southern parts, so state may be close and possibility that NJ swings to McCain on election day
-Jewish voters aren't crazy about Obama
Factors of Southern States:
-racist voters and the Bradley effect
-Jewish voters in Florida
-Virginia is leaning Obama, so Bradley effect may not help McCain
Other Notes:
-New Hampshire can go either way.
-Obama is consistently winnning in Colorado and no reason why McCain can win it.
-Nevada and Missouri are bellweather states so can go either way
-Ohio, Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina are really close in the polls, so if McCain can make a bounce he may win those states
Version: 25
With the Bradley effect, anything can happen.
Version: 24
If McCain could rebound and compaign in NJ.
Version: 23
The Jewish factor.
Version: 22
McCain needs a miracle.
Version: 21
The momentum right now is at Obama. So if McCain comes back, all states that are close at this moment will go to McCain. Colorado was not doing well when McCain had the momentum so idk.
Version: 20
The best Obama can do.
Version: 19
Keys for McCain:
1. Gain Jewish voters (can have a major impact on New Jersey, New York, and several other states).
2. Convince voters that he is better than Obama on the economy (only way he can win Michigan).
Version: 18
State Within Margin of Error Before 9/26 Debate:
(9/20 Stats) State/RCP Average/Last 10 Polls/Overall Status
Penn.-Obama +2.0 8-0-2 Lean Obama*
Wisconsin-Obama +1.5 10-0-0 Lean Obama
Minnesota-Obama +1.5 9-0-1 Lean Obama
Michigan-Obama +3.5 9-1-0 Slight Obama**
New Hamp-Obama +3.5 6-4-0 Pure Toss-Up
Colorado-Obama +2.5 7-3-0 Pure Toss-Up
Nevada-McCain +1.0 7-3-0 Pure Toss-Up
Virginia-McCain +2.5 6-3-1 Pure Toss-Up
Ohio-McCain +1.5 9-3-0 Pure Toss-Up***
Indiana-McCain +2.5 7-3-0 Slight McCain
*Joe Biden was born in Pennsylvania
**Obama has weak support
***there were 12 polls in the past week
Version: 17
State Within Margin of Error Before 9/26 Debate:
State/RCP Average/Last 10 Polls/Overall Status
Penn.-Obama +2.0 8-0-2 Lean Obama*
Wisconsin-Obama +1.5 10-0-0 Lean Obama
Minnesota-Obama +1.5 9-0-1 Slight Obama**
Michigan-Obama +3.5 9-1-0 Slight Obama**
New Hamp-Obama +3.5 6-4-0 Pure Toss-Up
Colorado-Obama +2.5 7-3-0 Pure Toss-Up
Nevada-McCain +1.0 7-3-0 Pure Toss-Up
Virginia-McCain +2.5 6-3-1 Pure Toss-Up
Ohio-McCain +1.5 9-3-0 Pure Toss-Up***
Indiana-McCain +2.5 7-3-0 Slight McCain
*Joe Biden was born in Pennsylvania
**Obama has weak support
***there were 12 polls in the past week
Version: 16
McCain must pull an upset in Michigan or New Hampshire.
Version: 15
McCain must pull an upset in either Michigan or New Hampshire. Nevada will go to who has the momentum.
Version: 14
Michigan and Colorado will decide the elction
Version: 13
Ohio: This state may be a classic swing state, but it seems like McCain will likely win this state. Obama favorable rating is 47% (extremely low), compared to McCain's 62% rating. But I could be wrong, because even though Rasmussen polls show consistent McCain strength, the latest CNN/Time poll showed had Obama up by 2. But how can a poll lie?
Virginia: Everyone is criticizing me for being very rational. Well in this state, Obama has a 55% favorable and 44% unfavorable (pretty high) ratings. So their are racist voters, but I still think this state is a toss-up.
Penn: As close as polls may be, McCain has no reason why he might win this state. Obama will likely win.
New Hampshire: Polls are consistent to Obama. But McCain is quite popular their and polls are closer, so I'm not as confident now.
Colorado: Obama is starting to consistently win polls. This state is still a pure toss-up. So wherever the nation goes, Colarado will go.
Nevada: Polls are very diverse, so a pure tossup.
Michigan: McCain must compaign here if he wants to pull a major upset. Unlike Pennsylvania, their are reasons. The Democratic primary was messed up and the Democratic Governor has a 20% approval rating. If Colorado goes to Obama, McCain must pull an upset here.
Version: 12
McCain/Palin v. Obama/Biden
Ok, I was totally wrong about the VP selections. Although I still think that Obama should've picked Bayh. As far as McCain, I didn't think Palin would be the choice because I didn't think she would be able to compaign for McCain in the states while she's taking care of 5 kids and still being Governor of Alaska. God bless her. lol.
But the one major problem with Palin is that since McCain didn't pick Pawlenty (Minnesota) or Romney (Michigan), they will have to heavily compaign in those 2 states. The reality is that Colorado is a pure tossup and if McCain loses that state he will loose the election. So he will have to swing Michigan, Minnesota, or win Colorado. It's an uphill battle, which is why Pawlenty would've been the "safe pick." The McCain compaign must compaign heavily.
Leaners:
Florida-With the racism in all the Southern states, the distrust of the Jewish population, and the high nummber of people over 60 years old-McCain should be able to win the state.
Missouri-It's known for being a bellwhether state, but it's heavily trending Republican. It has a high number of evangelicals and probably a lot of racism.
New Mexico-President Bush got 40% of the hispanic voters. In the polls, McCain has around 30%. The population is 42% hispanic and 42% white. Obama will likely win this state.
Montana/North Dakota/Indiana- Hard-core Republican states in 2004. They are a lot closer this time around, but I think gun control is a big factor. Tell me if I'm wrong.
Penn-It's mostly close to super liberal states of NJ and NY. President Bush compaigned their 20x in 2004 and couldn't win. With decreased # of conservatives it's hard for McCain to get the same voters Bush had.
New Hampshire-It's surrounded by liberal states. But McCain is well known in their so it may be close again this year.
Wisconsin/Iowa-The only major swing states with low black populations that Obama won in the primary elections.
North Carolina/Georgia-May be a lot closer this year, but a lot of racism. Some stupid voters in Georgia will vote for Barr or McKiney but McCain will squeze out a victory.
Minnesota: I thought McCain had a shot in this state, but after doing research this state voted for Dukakis and Mondale because these people are ultra liberal and anti-war. But their is a lot of Ventura independents so anything is possible.
Check in for my next map for my analysis of the pure tossups.
Version: 11
McCain/Palin v. Obama/Biden
Ok, I was totally wrong about the VP selections. Although I still think that Obama should've picked Bayh. As far as McCain, I didn't think Palin would be the choice because I didn't think she would be able to compaign for McCain in the states while she's taking care of 5 kids and still being Governor of Alaska. God bless her. lol.
But the one major problem with Palin is that since McCain didn't pick Pawlenty (Minnesota) or Romney (Michigan), they will have to heavily compaign in those 2 states. The reality is that Colorado is a pure tossup and if McCain loses that state he will loose the election. So he will have to swing either Minnesota or Michigan or both. It's an uphill battle, which is why Pawlenty would've been the "safe pick." Although after her speech in Ohio I'm convinced she is the best choice for McCain.
Major Advantages of Palin:
1. Gun Control- Look at the 2 tickets. Biden is 100% against gun ownership. In fact: both Obama and Biden has an F rating by the National Rifile Association (NRA). Palin is a strong supporter of gun rights and is actually part of the NRA. McCain has a C+ rating by the NRA. Bottom line: McCain has a strong advantage in this area.
2. Gender- The fact is that 30% of Clinton supporters aren't crazy for Obama. McCain is leading among men, but is losing by double digits by women. Palin should help at least a little bit in each state.
3. Bush #3- With the anti-corruption record and high approval rating of Palin, it's a lot harder these days to say that McCain is just a 3rd Bush term.
4. Experience- Some stupid liberal journalists coin the Palin choice a risky decision. I think McCain wants people to be talking about experience. After all a 2 year Governor with an 80% approval rating is way more qualified then a 2 year Senator who is a great speaker.
Bottom line: If McCain and Palin compaign and talk about their life stories, emphasis on fighting corruption, and reach out to voters in small towns in Minnesota and Michigan then they may be able to pull an upset in this exciting election.
Version: 10
I can't believe Obama chose Biden as his running mate. He's a moron. He could've picked Evan Bayh which would have ensured him 11 EV. Biden doesn't even want to be Vice President. He still lacks Governor experience. It also didn't really help him get any swing state. On the up side, Biden is a senator for 36 years, so he's been in Washington for a very long time to help Obama play the game.
Since the Vice President's job is to be the leader of Congress, Biden deserves the position. Although it gets me thinking: When was the last vice presidential candidate that was a governor?
Version: 9
Since both candidates won't make their VP decisions until the conventions, I'm really eager to make one last map until then. I'm not as confident as I was about Richardson and Romney.
Democratic VP Frontrunner: Evan Bayh (Senator of Indiana)
He may be a 2-term Senator, but before that he was Indiana Sec. of State and a 2 term Governor of Indiana. This guy was not just like any other governor. He was a VERY successful one. He never raised taxes and had the largest tax cut and highest surplus in state history. He won re-election with 62% of the vote and left office with an 80% approval rating. He was elected and re-elected of senator by over 60% each time.
In 2004 when Kerry chose John Edwards as his running mate, Edwards really didn't help him win N. Carolina. Why? He was a senator, but it didn't matter to the voters. Virginia governor Tim Kaine has been in office for 3 years. He was elected by 51%. His approval rating is 55% with a 40% disapproval rating. Wouldn't choosing him be sooo obvious that Obama is just trying to use him to win Virginia?
Evan Bayh is extremeley popular in Indiana and would definetely influence voters. Obama could also emphasis his economic experience. In the polls, the state is close. Bayh also said he would accept the VP if asked.
The only problem may be that he's centrist.
Democratic VP runner-up: Bill Richardson (Governor of NM)
-US Rep. from New Mexico (1983-1997)
-US Ambassador to UN (1997-1998)
-US Sec. of Energy (1998-2001)
-New Mexico Governor (2003-)
Obama can put alot of experience on the ticket. He can also guarentee 90% of both the black and hispanic vote and can guarentee the swing state of New Mexico (although since half of the New Mexico population is hispanic-Obama should win anyway). Colorado and Nevada has a high hispanic population.
The only problem is that it could be risky having both a hispanic and black guy on one ticket. But it can be a good think too.
Republican VP Frontrunner: Mitt Romney (Governor of Mass)
We all know about his experience in the private sector as a successful business man (economic experience) and his experience as governor. More importantly, he can help McCain win a VERY IMPORTANT swing state of Michigan. Romney's father was a 3-term governor in the 1970s. Romney can also help win Nevada. In addition he's a great speaker and can raise alot of money.
The only problem is the fact that he's a mormon. Evangelicals in Minnesota and the Southern states may have a problem with that. However, if McCain wants to win he must be aggresive. Michigan has 17 EV after all.
Republican VP Runner-Up: Tim Pawlenty (Governor of Minn)
Unlike Romney, McCain does like Pawlenty on a personal level. He's also evangelical himself! He would likely help him win Minnesota, but it only has 10 EV. Although the Republican convention is in Minnesota after all.
The problem is that Pawlenty is the "safe pick." He's not a great speaker and isn't even that popular in his own state (60%a approve, 40% don't).
Since Bayh brings Obama an instant 11 EV, McCain has alot of work to do. The only swing state McCain can afford to lose is Colorado or Montana. Romney brings the most to the table (experience, money, and 17 EV), what all Pawlenty brings is one state with 10 EV.
Do you agree?
Version: 8
Republican Democratic Liber. Green Independent others
McCain Obama Barr McKinney Nader
Romney Richardson Root Clemente Gonzalez
47% 51% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First off, I wanna say this year's election will be very exciting. Obama may be winning now, but the polls will change between now and this Fall when everyone starts to tune into the election. Although it's also a possibility that his support will increase in the fall to double-digits, we'll see. I don't know if the election will be a tie and be thrown to the House of Reps (which is Democraticly-dominated) but based on my map it's actually a very good possibility this year. It's going to come down to one question: Will McCain bring things to the economy that's President Bush didn't? I'm not sure if Bush is in favor of offshore drilling or nuclear power plants, but he must provide some type of economic solution that Bush failed to do. If McCain can't answer that question effectively he won't win the election. For example, in the 1992 election President George HW Bush gave America no reason to vote for him for re-election. The economy was in a recession and Bush failed to do anything to solve it. Yes, McCain is different then the current Bush, but he must convince the American people that he has an economic solution.
Independents:
Even though their are three well-known candidates this year, I don't think they'll add up past 2%. Nader right now has only ballot access in 4 states!(based on this site)This is because this year, unlike other elections, he doesn't have the help of a political party. He is a well-known candidate so he will get over 0.1%. Barr is the most popular in this election. Libertarians automatically get 0.5%(considering Badnarik who was a nobody got 0.47% in 2004). So far he has ballot access in 31 states and counting, so I predict he'll get at least 1%. McKinney was a congresswoman from Georgia, so she'll get alot of support from their, but she's not popular nationally. Also, I don't think Constitution's party nominee Chuck Baldwin will get a significant amount of votes considering their is a wide range of other independents to vote for.
Running Mates:
VP decisions are based on the disadvantages the Presidential nominee has. Romney will be chosen as McCain's nominee. He's young, was a governor, and is well-experienced in the economy. He can also help get the swing-state of Michigan. He is a great speaker and can bring in alot of cash, which McCain desperetly needs(based on the fact that Romney raised over $100 mil. in his short lived compaign). Palin is the runner-up. Even though she can get alot of woman voters, which is McCain's biggest weakness, it would be difficult to compaign in the states because she's currently a governor of Alaska which is very far away from the states and is a Republican state ragardless. Romney isn't a governor anymore, and he even said he would love to be McCain's running mate. The fact that he's a mormon, he was McCain's rival, or that he's a flip-flopper is irrelevent.
I thought alot about Obama's decision. Richardson is definetly the best chose. Obama's #1 weakness is the fact that he's inexperienced. Richardson is governor of the swing state of New Mexico, former Secretary of Energy (which is an economic experience), and was a US Ambassador to the United Nations (foreign affairs experience). He even endorsed Obama over close friend Clinton before the primaries were over, which represents loyalty with Obama. He would be the perfect running mate. Yes, he's a traitor to the Clinton family. But do you think that 70% of Hilary Clinton voters are going to turn on Obama and the Democratic party just because their pissed over the fact that he's a traitor. Most Democrates are excited to vote for Obama to get the Republicans out of the white house. 30% of Clinton voters are voting for McCain in the general election regardless. Governor Tom Kaine of Virginia is the runner up. Yes, he's from a swing state but does he have the experience Richardson has? Yes, Jim Webb has foreign affairs experience, but one year in the Senate?
Leaners:
I'm now convinced the southern states are totally racially polarized. Those states are 30% black and then many white voters who are racist (remember it's the deep south I'm talking about). Blacks voted for Kerry in 2004 by 88% and usually vote Democratic that high regardless. Yes, I know the black turnout will be much higher, but many whites will come out to vote in the south because their racist. McCain is winning in every single poll in North Carolina. Georgia and Virginia are a totally different story.
New Hampshire and Penn. are from the Hard-core Democratic Northeast region so Obama will win both. Obama is winning by 10 points in all of the Wisconsin polls and only 35% of the states' voters want to stay in Iraq. Obama won the Iowa caucus so he'll win that state. Richardson will help Obama win New Mexico and Romney will help McCain win Michigan. Navada and Missouri is leaning to McCain, but if Obama will win the election he'll win those states. Keep in mind that no one ever won a Presidential election without winning Nevada (except in 1976) and Missouri (except in 1956). McCain will win Florida because he won it in the primary, Obama barely compaigned there, and has alot of voters over 60 years old. Montana, North Dakota, and Indiana are strong Republican states and I think McCain will start winning in those 3 when more polls come in the fall.
Swing States:
Obama may be winning in Ohio by 5% right now, but most of those polls were from Obama's highest point of momentum from mid-June. Ohio is a classic swing state and I'm sure many of the Ohio voters follow politics. Ohio will decide the election. I'm not very confident that McCain can pull a win in Colorado. But it should still be a close state. Denver is democratic regardless of the convention. As far as Virginia, it's in the middle of the country and I'm not sure how many people are racist. The state voted for Bush by 5 points in 2004, but has voted Republican for a long time. They have a lot of Democrates elected, such as the current governor and senators. The 20% of the blacks will definetely come out in high numbers to vote in this brutally close swing state.
Georgia:
McCain-48%
Obama-45%
Barr (from 7th District)-4%
McKinney (from 4th/11th Districts)/others-3%
Final Outcome:
We'll see if Obama gets a double-digit lead or brutally close 2 point advantage by the fall. Anything can happen. Rumors have it that Rev. Wright may be coming out with a book in October for revenge. Anything can happen in the debates. It's going to come down to the final momentum shift. Nevetheless Obama is the favorite. After all, with Bush having a 30% approval rating, it's actually pretty amazing McCain has a chance at winning. The biggest advantage McCain has is the fact that Obama is inexperienced. Even with Richardson, it's going to come down to does Obama have the leadership to lead a country through a recession and 2 wars with being in the senate for 3 year? Regardless of the actual outcome, Obama will win the popular because the Northeast states will vote for him by a wide margin and McCain will win his Republican by lower margins because of the Bush factor. If it comes down to my scenario, Obama will most likely win unless if there's a miracle in the voting in the House of Rep. So McCain must win Ohio and either Virginia or Colorado if he wins.
Please leave comments.
I wanna know that people praise my genius analysis. ahahahahahahhahaha...
Version: 7
McCain/Palin vs. Obama/Richardson
It's going to be very close in the southern states this year because of the African-American vote. Georgia will be very close because of Bob Barr's presence (his homestate) and the facts that McCain lost there in the primary and that 30% of the population is black. Iowa is going to Obama because he won it in the caucus. Florida is clearly going to McCain because it's a swing state that didn't have a say in the Democratic primary and has a very high older population. Wisconsin is slightly leaning democratic. New Hampshire is in the Northeast region, so its likely going to Obama. McCain is winning is almost every poll in Michigan.
Missouri,Ohio,Virginia, and the southern states are going to be the key in the election.More polls need to come out in the swing states in order to make better predictions!
Obama needs a governor as a running mate. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is from a swing state and can help rally up Clinton voters.
Most women are voting for Obama because women tend to not like war. Sarah Palin is the Alaskan governor. She has a 90% approval rating. She can help get Clinton voters. She can also help unite the Republicans.
Version: 6
McCain vs. Obama
It's going to be very close in the southern states this year because of the African-American vote. Mississippi is going to be the closest because it has the highest black population in the country with 36%. Georgia will also be very close because of Bob Barr's presence (his homestate) and the facts that McCain lost there in the primary and that 30% of the population is black. Iowa is going to Obama because he won it in the caucus. Florida is clearly going to McCain because it's a swing state that didn't have a say in the Democratic primary and has a very high older population. Wisconsin is slightly leaning democratic. Missouri,Ohio,Virginia, Michigan, and the southern states are going to be the key in the election.
More polls need to come out in the swing states in order to make better predictions!
Version: 5
McCain vs. Obama
It's going to be very close in the southern states this year because of the African-American vote. Mississippi is going to be the closest because it has the highest black population in the country with 36%. Georgia will also be very close because of Bob Barr's presence (his homestate) and the facts that McCain lost there in the primary and that 30% of the population is black. Iowa is going to Obama because he won it in the caucus. Florida is clearly going to McCain because it's a swing state that didn't have a say in the Democratic primary and has a very high older population. Wisconsin is slightly leaning democratic. Missouri,Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, and the southern states are going to be the key in the election.
Version: 4
McCain vs. Obama
It's going to be very close in the southern states this year because of the African-American vote. Mississippi is going to be the closest because it has the highest black population in the country with 36%. Georgia will also be very close because of Bob Barr's presence (his homestate) and the facts that McCain lost there in the primary and that 30% of the population is black. Iowa is going to Obama because he won it in the caucus. Florida is clearly going to McCain because it's a swing state that didn't have a say in the Democratic primary and has a very high older population. Wisconsin is slightly leaning democratic. Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, and the southern states are going to be the key in the election.
Version: 3
McCain vs. Obama
It's going to be very close in the southern states this year because of the African-American vote. Mississippi is going to be the closest because it has the highest black population in the country with 36%. Iowa is going to Obama because he won it in the caucus. Florida is clearly going to McCain because it's a swing state that didn't have a say in the Democratic primary and has a very high older population. Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan, and the southern states are going to be the key in the election.
Version: 2
McCain vs. Obama
It's going to be very close in the southern states this year because of the African-American vote. Mississippi is going for Obama because it has the highest black population in the country with 38%. Iowa is going to Obama because he won it in the caucus. Florida is clearly going to McCain because it's a swing state that didn't have a say in the Democratic primary and has a very high older population. Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan, and the southern states are going to be the key in the election.
Version: 1
McCain vs. Obama
It's going to be very close in the southern states this year because of the African-American vote. Mississippi is going for Obama because it has the highest black population in the country with 38%. Iowa is going to Obama because he won it in the caucus. Florida and Michigan are clearly going to McCain because their swing states that didn't have a say in the Democratic primaries. Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, and the southern states are going to be the key in the election.
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