Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-01 Version:4

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	291
Rep	160
Ind	0
Tos	87

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+9	0	+112	0	0	0	20	2	252	+112
Rep	0	0	0	-9	0	-112	22	3	174	-112
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
95	49	38	4	4

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

Update for the announcement of the running mates.

Version: 1

I think at this point that Obama will win big in the West.

I fear that McCain will try to play offense in the Midwest, while lacking the money to do so. As such, I also predict that he will lose badly there too.

I think that Obama will win the trifecta of Colorado, Nevada, & New Mexico, due largely to changing demographics. Meanwhile I think that he will win Missouri & Virginia due to Invigorated turnout in St. Louis & NOVA combined with depressed theo-con turnout (compared to the last two elections at least.

However, I also suspect that Obama will suffer in Appalachia due to his extreme incompatability with the region. At this point, I would not be surprised if McCain's best state is not Utah, but West Virginia.

I won't comment on running mates at this point, since both of them, especially McCain, have excellent chances of picking someone who is not currently widely considered.

I just noticed that this map would have Obama win by the same margin in the Electoral College that Bush did in 2004.

Edit: Sorry, it appears that I had a mental lapse when I wrote that last paragraph. Obama gets 16 more EVs than Bush in my map.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Governor	32/36	21/36	53/72	73.6%	1	7	202	T	272
2012 President	52/56	42/56	94/112	83.9%	1	473	367	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	33/52	5/52	38/104	36.5%	1	-	114	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	284	37	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	24/37	58/74	78.4%	8	1	86	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	6	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	17	1	T	103
2008 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	4	3	100	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	21/33	53/66	80.3%	3	3	57	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	7/11	16/22	72.7%	3	3	152	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	285/324	190/324	475/648	73.3%

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