This prediction is based off a 6.5% Obama national victory. Tossups are margins less than 5, leans 5-10, strong greater than 10%.

Some noteables
North Carolina Obama +2.2%
Virginia Obama +7.3%
Missouri Obama +1.4%
Pennsylvania Obama +8.6%
Ohio Obama +3.7%
Nevada Obama +4.1%
Florida Obama +3.5%
Indiana Obama + 0.8%

South Dakota McCain +3.8%
North Dakota McCain +2.7%
Montana McCain + 1.8%

This is based off about a 4.5% Obama victory. As far as my picks on tossup, lean or strong, that is more based on margin of victory (assuming the 4.5% national PV Obama win. Tossup less than 5%, lean 5-10%, strong greater than 10%.

For example while I truly don't believe Obama will be able to pick off Indiana and Montana, I have them listed as tossup because I believe if Obama wins nationally by 4.5%, both of these states will see a McCain victory of less than 5 points.

I see a state such as Ohio pretty much in line with the national average so it gets a tossup designation, PA and CO I see as slightly more Democratic than nationalaly, and since it only has to be 0.5% more Democratic to the 5% margin (based off my 4.5% national prediction) it goes into lean category.

Iowa and Minnesota get thrown into the strong column because I believe both will be slightly more than 5% more Democratic than nationally, which would put in just into the double digit range with that 4.5% PV victory. The polling in Iowa really tends to back up the claim that Obama is starting to run away with it there, while Minnesota polling has been pretty much all over the place from small to double digit Obama lead, but in the end I don't see Minnesota drifting that far from way to another from where is stood against the national average in 04.

McCain has just put himself too close to Bush, very unpopular war in Iraq, very poor economy is just too much for McCain to overcome. Obama wins the pv by 5-6%

With Obama looking like he will win Iowa and gaining nationally and Huckabee having a massive surge I decided to do a map of Obama v huckabee

Nationally comes out to a 5-6% Dem win, the coasts, especially the northeast are an absolute slaughter house. For those questioning why Arkansas is listed as a tossup. the default setting for tossup on the board is margin less than 5%. With the 5-6% national victory I am predicting, a tossup GO could mean any state that is up to 11% more GOP than the national average. Arkansas itself was about 7% more GOP than nationally in 04 & part of the reason it was that high was Kerry. The natural or generic matchup lean would probably be GOP +5, I predict a huckabee/ Obama matchup would make the state more Republican than its generic lean of 5 points more GOP than nationally, but I doubt it would become more than 11 points more GOP than nationally which is what it would need to get out of the tossup barrier with my national prediction

Consolidation/ average map. I have created maps between the top three on each side. This map is a consolidation or average of those maps. Some states could be labeled as a lean even though the more maps have them labeled as tossup. Iowa and Nevada are examples of this as they each have 5 maps listed as Dem tossup 4 as Dem lean. The reason they average out to lean are due to the numerical values. For example tossups are states predicted to have a margin under 5%, leans 5-10%. In all the tossups Iowa & Nevada were near the end of the tossup category 4-5%, in the leans they varied. The average method also impacts the pv, this results in a 4.2% Dem national victory. Which means any state which winds up being 0.8% more Dem than the national average is at least a lean. Every state I have listed as at least a lean were at least that in 04 with the exception of Ohio & Nevada, both of which were within 1 point of that in 04.

Edwards V Thompson

Edwards wins by about 4.5% or so nationally. Edwards's southern appeal is diminished by going up against a southern Republican, but he still does better in the south than any other Democrat (with the exception of Hillary in (Arkansas) and does so without weakening his performances elsewhere.

Worst GOP scenario Edwards v Romney

Edwards win nationally by 8-9 points, similar to Clinton 96. Edwards does quite well in the south against someone like Romney, and Romney has no chance along the coasts.

Edwrads v Giuliani

Edwards is probably the strongest Dem candidate, he has appeal in the south especially against Giuliani. Wins nationally by 4%

Obama V Thompson

Obama wins nationally by about 3 points. Similar national result as the Obama rudy matchup, though Thommpson does better in the south and worse along the coasts than Rudy

Obama vs romney

Obama would the general by 4.5- 5 points, comes very close in Arkansas and West Virginia. Sweeps the coats with large margins

Obama vs Giuliani

Obama by 2.5-3 point pv win nationally. Bunch of pretty close states in the south, Virginia, West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, and Florida all within about two points and could go the other way. The other tossups OH, WI, IA, CO are at or slightly more Dem than the national average so on the higher side of the tossup distinction (3-5 points) Again Giuliani does slightly better in the northeast than the other GOP candidates do, but his Iraq views diminish that advantage as Obama sweeps D.C north

Clinton v Thompson
Similar national margin as Rudy 2.5-3% Clinton victory. Thompson performs better than Rudy in much of the south which solidifies Tenn, and gives him W VA & MO as opposed to Rudy. The stronger performance in the south compared to Rudy is canceled out by a stronger Clinton performance in the northeast against Thompson than Rudy which results in a similar margin of victory on the PV level. The lower margin of victory compared to Romney puts Virginia and Florida back in the GOP column.

Clinton V Romney

Clitnon wins nationally by about 3.5-4. Romney being more conservative than Rudy results in him doing slightly better than Rudy there. However, he doesn't have much appeal beyond the base of the GOP. This results in a slightly larger margin on the national level which solidifies IA, WI & NM (or at least puts them into the lean category since they are above the 5 point barrier which in this case is 1-1.5% more Dem than nationally). Also flips VA & FL which are shaping to be about 3 points more GOP than nationally, as Clinton takes those two by about a point.

for the next week and a half I will be posting matchups between the three top tier candidates on each side (Clinton, Obama, Edwards for the dems, Giuliani, Romney, Thompson for the GOP.

This one Clinton vs Giuliani.

Rudy does slightly better than other Republicans in the northeast, but his very staunch pro-Iraq views diminish what impact he could have had in what is the strongest anti-Iraq region of the country. Same in the northwest, he does slightly better than other GOP candidates would have because of his social views, but thats diminished quite a bit by his Iraq views. Again those who would tend to be the most willing to vote for Rudy as opposed to other GOP candidates because of his social views are one of the strongest opponents to the War in Iraq, especially in these two regions of the country.

His views on social issues have the opposite effect in West Virginia, and the state very narrowly goes to Clinton (less than a point). Numerous recent polls show Clinton is still very strong in Arkansas

This is under a Clinton victory of about 2.5-3 points nationally. Strong dem = 10% or more dem victory lean 5-10%, tossup less than 5%, and same for the GOP states.

Based off a Dem 3 point PV victory, and in that case Florida would be within a 2-3 points

Generic D vs Generic R, 3 point PV victory for Generic D

• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Presidential Prediction Home
• Update My 2008 Presidential Prediction Map