PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - Ogre Mage (D-WA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-02 Version:8

Prediction Map
Ogre Mage MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Ogre Mage MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem338
 
Rep200
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem264
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
Tos111
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+70+86000202252+86
Rep000-70-86243200-86
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
93493941
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 7

The economic crisis has dramatically reshaped this race.


Version: 6

Ohio: I think that McCain + Palin will be the push among appalachian voters in the south, hunters and blue collars to get the GOP over the top. Ohio voters are economically depressed but Obama isn't very good at talking about the economy. Multiple polls showing Obama only attracting half of Hillary Clinton voters are devastating and suggest just how big of a difference her presence could have made on the ticket. This is a very tough call, though, because I am sure Strickland's political operation will help Obama.

New Hampshire: New Hampshire likes maverick McCain but I think the anti-war sentiment here will ultimately prove too much. Looking at 2004 and 2006 the trend in this state looks disastrous for Republicans. And Lynch will stump for Obama.

Colorado: Colorado is another state where the trend favors the Democrats. As in N.H. the independent vote will be key. Obama showed considerable strength in the primary here, I think he has the organization to take this state.


Version: 5

Ohio: I think that McCain + Palin will be the push among appalachian voters in the south, hunters and blue collars to get the GOP over the top. Ohio voters are economically depressed but Obama isn't very good at talking about the economy. Multiple polls showing Obama only attracting half of Hillary Clinton voters are devastating and suggest just how big of a difference her presence could have made on the ticket. This is a very tough call, though, because I am sure Strickland's political operation will help Obama.

New Hampshire: New Hampshire likes maverick McCain but I think the anti-war sentiment here will ultimately prove too much. Looking at 2004 and 2006 the trend in this state looks disastrous for Republicans. And Lynch will stump for Obama.

Colorado: Colorado is another state where the trend favors the Democrats. As in N.H. the independent vote will be key. Obama showed considerable strength in the primary here, I think he has the organization to take this state.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 34/35 24/35 58/70 82.9% pie 1 86 97T305
P 2020 President 52/56 40/56 92/112 82.1% pie 6 5 307T684
P 2020 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 6 3 66T423
P 2018 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 3 0 24T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 24/36 57/72 79.2% pie 1 4 78T372
P 2016 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 7 2 194T678
P 2016 Senate 29/34 16/34 45/68 66.2% pie 8 6 277T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 3/12 12/24 50.0% pie 1 0 164T279
P 2014 Senate 33/36 20/36 53/72 73.6% pie 9 0 158T382
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 22 17T153
P 2012 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 4 13 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 20/33 52/66 78.8% pie 8 2 74T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 2 51T228
P 2010 Senate 34/37 24/37 58/74 78.4% pie 10 2 86T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 1 2 29T312
P 2008 President 53/56 40/56 93/112 83.0% pie 8 2 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 8 4 81T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 4 10 50T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 17 1T167
Aggregate Predictions 573/614 398/614 971/1228 79.1% pie


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