PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - FrenchEd (D-NJ) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:64

Prediction Map
FrenchEd MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
FrenchEd MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem353
 
Rep185
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep157
 
Ind0
 
Tos90
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+80+101000202252+101
Rep000-80-101233185-101
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
101504443
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

FINAL PREDICTION:

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)
Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE)
projected to win 52.5% of the popular vote and 353 electoral votes.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)
projected to win 46% of the popular vote and 185 electoral votes.

Margin of error: 90% confidence on a 50.5-54.5 to 44-48 Obama victory with 291 to 396 electoral votes, i.e. 2-point margin of error on the popular vote and 62 electoral votes on the electoral count.

AL: M 62, O 37
AK: M 57, O 38
AZ: M 53, 0 46
AR: M 55, O 44
CA: O 61, M 38
CO: O 52, M 47
CT: O 58, M 40
DE: O 58, M 40
FL: O 51, M 48
GA: M 52, O 46
HI: O 65, M 33
ID: M 63, O 35
IL: O 61, M 38
IN: M 50, O 49
IA: O 55, M 44
KS: M 56, O 43
KY: M 56, O 43
LA: M 57, O 42
ME: O 57, M 41
MD: O 58, M 40
MA: O 61, M 38
MI: O 56, M 43
MN: O 55, M 44
MS: M 54, O 45
MO: M 50, O 49
MT: M 50, O 46
NE: M 58, 0 40
NV: O 52, M 47
NH: O 54, M 45
NJ: O 58, M 41
NM: O 55, M 44
NY: O 62, M 37
NC: O 50, M 49
ND: M 51, O 48
OH: O 52, M 47
OK: M 63, O 37
OR: O 56, M 42
PA: O 53, M 46
RI: O 61, M 37
SC: M 56, O 43
SD: M 54, O 45
TN: M 56, O 43
TX: M 55, O 44
UT: M 65, O 33
VT: O 61, M 36
VA: O 52, M 47
WA: O 57, M 41
WV: M 55, O 44
WI: O 55, M 44
WY: M 61, O 38
DC: O 90, M 8

Toss-up means the state can essentially go both ways.
Lean means the chance are at least 5 to 1 the state will go for the candidate, but no more than 20 to 1.
Strong means the state goes for the candidate unless an unforeseen event or landslide occurs on one side or the other.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 63

A tiny update... Last before the FINAL MAP which I will put up on Sunday or Monday.

AL: M 62, O 37
AK: M 57, O 38
AZ: M 53, 0 46
AR: M 55, O 44
CA: O 61, M 38
CO: O 52, M 47
CT: O 58, M 40
DE: O 58, M 40
FL: O 51, M 48
GA: M 52, O 46
HI: O 65, M 33
ID: M 63, O 35
IL: O 61, M 38
IN: M 50, O 49
IA: O 55, M 44
KS: M 56, O 43
KY: M 56, O 43
LA: M 57, O 42
ME: O 57, M 41
MA: O 61, M 38
MI: O 55, M 44
MN: O 55, M 44
MS: M 54, O 45
MO: M 50, O 49
MT: M 50, O 46
NE: M 58, 0 40
NV: O 52, M 47
NH: O 54, M 45
NJ: O 58, M 41
NM: O 55, M 44
NY: O 62, M 37
NC: O 50, M 49
ND: M 51, O 48
OH: O 51, M 48
OK: M 63, O 37
OR: O 56, M 42
PA: O 53, M 46
RI: O 61, M 37
SC: M 56, O 43
SD: M 54, O 45
TN: M 56, O 43
TX: M 55, O 44
UT: M 65, O 33
VT: O 61, M 36
VA: O 51, M 48
WA: O 57, M 41
WV: M 55, O 44
WI: O 55, M 44
WY: M 61, O 38
DC: O 90, M 8

Toss-up means the state can essentially go both ways.
Lean means the chance are at least 2 to 1 the state will go for the candidate, but no more than 10 to 1.
Strong means the state goes for the candidate unless an unforeseen event or landslide occurs on one side or the other.


Version: 62

Finally decided to call those four toss-ups. Two Democratic: Florida, North Carolina; two Republican: Indiana, Missouri.
Here are my predictions for all 50 states:

AL: M 62, O 37
AK: M 57, O 38
AZ: M 53, 0 46
AR: M 55, O 44
CA: O 61, M 38
CO: O 53, M 46
CT: O 58, M 40
DE: O 58, M 40
FL: O 51, M 48
GA: M 52, O 46
HI: O 65, M 33
ID: M 63, 0 35
IL: O 61, M 38
IN: M 50, 0 49
IA: O 55, M 44
KS: M 56, 0 43
KY: M 56, 0 43
LA: M 57, 0 42
ME: O 57, M 41
MA: O 61, M 38
MI: O 55, M 44
MN: O 55, M 44
MS: M 54, O 45
MO: M 50, O 49
MT: M 51, O 45
NE: M 58, 0 40
NV: O 52, M 47
NH: O 54, M 45
NJ: O 58, M 41
NM: O 55, M 44
NY: O 63, M 36
NC: O 50, M 49
ND: M 51, O 48
OH: O 52, M 47
OK: M 63, O 37
OR: O 56, M 41
PA: O 54, M 45
RI: O 61, M 37
SC: M 56, O 43
SD: M 54, O 45
TN: M 56, O 43
TX: M 55, O 44
UT: M 65, O 31
VT: O 61, M 36
VA: O 52, M 47
WA: O 57, M 41
WV: M 54, O 45
WI: O 54, M 45
WY: M 61, O 38
DC: O 90, M 8

National:
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/ Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE) - 52.5%
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/ Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) - 46.5%


Version: 61

Green means toss-up, not Barr pulling an upset.

California has entered the realm of >60%.

States in green I couldn't decide:
NC: polls give it to Obama but it's close and I'm not so sure.
MO: polls are contradictory, no clear winner.
FL: like we're going to trust polls on that one -tctc.
IN: between Obama+10 and McCain+6, I say toss-up.

I still have a week to decide those four and change a couple of others if need be.

Obama wins. His chances are now 20 to 1. Still, there is that odd feeling at the pit of my stomach... Waiting for Nov 5th, 4p.m. GMT+1, with awful impatience.


Version: 60

Obama 53, McCain 46

Battlegrounds:
NV: Obama 51, McCain 48
MT: McCain 51, Obama 45
CO: Obama 52, McCain 46
NM: Obama 53, McCain 46
ND: McCain 52, Obama 47
MO: Obama 50, McCain 49
MN: Obama 54, McCain 44
IA: Obama 55, McCain 44
WI: Obama 54, McCain 45
IN: McCain 50, Obama 49
OH: Obama 51, McCain 48
VA: Obama 52, McCain 47
NC: McCain 50, Obama 49
GA: McCain 51, Obama 45
FL: Obama 50, McCain 49

Biggest margins:
DC: Obama 90, McCain 8
HI: Obama 65, McCain 34
VT: Obama 63, McCain 33
UT: McCain 64, Obama 34
OK: McCain 65, Obama 35
WY: McCain 63, Obama 35
ID: McCain 62, Obama 36
RI: Obama 61, McCain 36
AL: McCain 62, Obama 37
NY: Obama 61, McCain 37
MA: Obama 60, McCain 37
IL: Obama 60, McCain 38


Version: 59

Obama's best case scenario.


Version: 55

Lean = margin >5%
Strong = margin >10%
I think many states can have 30%+ margins:
Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma on the GOP side and Vermont and Hawaii on the Dem side. Some others can get to 20%+ margins, like Alabama, Kansas or Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut or Maryland.
The closest states as of now are NC and MO, but I still feel Obama has to fight to keep his leads in FL, OH, NV, VA.


Version: 51

McCain is falling, falling...


Version: 49

The map as I see it now. Virginia is a strong contender for lean Republican. Map reflects weakening of Obama margins in WA and MN. NM still lean Democratic despite Rasmussen poll. Kansas should be >60% and New York probably >50%, I'll correct it later.
McCain wins the popular vote, Obama the electoral vote. Closest states: Michigan, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada.


Version: 48

2012 scenario:

VP Sarah Palin (R-AK) - Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) - Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)

Warner 55%
Palin 41%

That would be fun to watch...


Version: 47

>90%: Core states. These are the traditional post-1992 base of the party. They are not in play, under any circumstances.
>70%: Solid states. Though more irregular in the past and in the polls, there is no serious possibility that they might swing.
>50%: Likely states. They might swing, but are not the main battlegrounds and will be difficult for the other side to win over.
>30%: Leaners. These could easily swing, but are consistently leaning to one side.

Green states: Battlegrounds. Ranked by importance to the electoral count.
>90%: Ohio. Not vital to Obama, but assuming one can win without it is dangerous.
>70%: Colorado. The "tipping point" state. The election could be decided there, but it's not as rich in EV as OH.
>50%: Virginia. More EV-rich than CO, but less psychologically important: if McCain loses there, his chances are virtually nil.
>30%: Nevada, New Hampshire. Though said to be leaning (GOP and Dem, respectively), and not EV-rich, two tough calls. I'm not making up my mind on these just yet.

NB:
1) Obama leads the electoral count on this map, but the race is an objective toss-up. The last 10 EVs he needs will be tough to find.
2) Message to Gceres: remember, we are NOT discussing your fantasy world where Virginia is not in play. No need to make that argument again. Thanks.


Version: 46

Poll-based (RCP). O/B v. M/P.


Version: 45

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE)
v.
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)

Alaska is superstrengthened by the Palin pick. Moved to the Strong and 60% categories. Other impacts yet to be seen.

The election still seems close. Tilts Obama for now.


Version: 44

Obama/Biden v. McCain/Anyone (anyone is better than Biden, and yes, I include Tom Ridge)

BIDEN! What the hell?

-Completing his SIXTH TERM as US Senator. They're going to change politics in Washington with a six-term Senator? Ha ha ha.
-Moderate to onservative: alienating the liberal base of the party, and not even appealing to social conservatives because he supports abortion rights.
-Roman Catholic: will appeal only to liberal Catholics because conservative Catholics are against abortion rights (think Kerry, who lost the Catholic vote). Yeah, we'll win Rhode Island, Delaware and Philly by a superlative margin. Like that's new.
-Foreign policy expert: Wonderful. The only snag is, the main concern of American is the economy by 55%.
-Iraq: Biden has a crazy partition plan which doesn't exactly fit into Obama's plan.
-Experience: Wonderfuller! He was worse than Clinton during the primary hammering Obama's lack of experience. The Republicans will have a field WEEK with that. Worse than Bush's voodoo economics.

Now, on my map:
-Indiana: moving toward McCain, will move yet faster without Bayh. Moved out from the list of battleground (and that includes the long list).
-Virginia: not lost yet, but I don't expect to hold it.
-Ohio: toss-up, not clear.
-Pennsylvania: maybe Biden helps there? Hope is on the way...
-Colorado and Nevada: toss-ups, not clear.
-New Mexico and Iowa: still leaning Dem.
-Michigan: well, let's hope McCain doesn't make a decent choice for one and picks Romney.


Version: 43

Pres. George W. Bush/Vice President Dick Cheney
v.
Sen. John Kerry/Sen. Evan Bayh (Edwards taken off ticket because of affair)

Popular vote: Kerry 56, Bush 41, Nader 2.

Waiting for Obama's VP, here's what 2004 would look like this year.


Version: 42

Reflecting the current polling, with two minor adjustments: Ohio tilts Dem and not GOP (Rasmussen poll overlooked, too biased) and Indiana tilts GOP, not Dem (too close to swing).

Leaners are states with a margin <8%
Toss-ups, <2%


Version: 41

This map features McCain/Romney versus Obama/Bayh.
The VPs' influence might be overemphasized, but here is how it plays:
Romney strengthens the West, with Colorado and Nevada drifting toward McCain because of the LDS connection. However, New Mexico has less LDS and therefore stays in the Obama column. In Michigan, Romney plays for McCain and Granholm against Obama.
Bayh helps Obama with Clintonites and Rust Belt blue collars, therefore helping him in Indiana (Bayh's home for those who really haven't been following) and Ohio.

Note that if Obama loses EITHER Indiana or Ohio, he loses. That is very possible. However, if he wins only one of these and Michigan, he wins, or Ohio/Michigan and Colorado and loses Indiana.


Version: 40

Waiting for the VPs, a fun map for 2012:
Obama is defeated in '08.
McCain chooses not to run again in '12.

Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia is nominated for President and picks Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, the runner-up, for Vice President.
The GOP nominated Vice President Mitt Romney of Massachusetts/Michigan/LDS for President and Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana.

Warner pulls a historic landslide, carrying 56% of the popular vote.

NB: the Electoral Vote is an approx, since the 2010 census will change the congressional apportionment.


Version: 39

30%: Battlegrounds or disturbingly close states.
50%: Long shots.
70%: Not in play, except if landslide.
90%: Don't even think about it.


Version: 38

McCain has a extra-marital affair problem.
The devout right stays home.
End of the game.

Don't worry about confidence, I was very lazy about it.


Version: 37

My previous map, with confidence corrected and New Jersey switched back to Sen. Obama.


Version: 36

McCain 5% victory. Not a landslide, but a healthy win. I do think we can get close to 350 EVs one way or the other, but probably not beyond. The country is too polarized. The red states on this map are core Obama states. Maybe he could lose ME-02, WI and CT in addition but that's really a very long shot.
New Jersey is a liability for the Democrats. It's a liberal Democratic state, but its voting pattern is inconsistent and it used to be a Republican-leaning state. It went heavily for Reagan and Bush. If McCain gets the upper hand, which is predictable nowhere in the very near future, New Jersey should be watched.


Version: 35

Obama 53 McCain 45 Barr 1 Others 1
I think if things turn well for Obama this could work out.


Version: 34

My new take on election 2008. I have not been shy on confidence, with only two toss-up states. All state from +3 to +7 in polling margin are included as leaners. Above are strong.
Virginia is currently the most undecisive state.
This map is a snapshot of what is going on. No need to bark at me that Indiana will NEVER be so close in November or that Wisconsin has ALWAYS been a toss-up state...


Version: 33

A snapshot of the race as I see it if the election were held today.
Swinggies:
West:
NV: M+5
CO: O+4
NM: O+5
MT: M+7
Midwest:
MO: M+5
IA: O+6
WI: O+9
MN: O+10
MI: O+3
ND: M+8
Rust Belt:
IN: M+5
OH: O+2
PA: O+7
NJ: O+7
South:
VA: M+1
NC: M+6
WV: M+10
AR: M+10
GA: M+8
FL: M+7
North East:
NH: O+5


Version: 32

Good McCain performance on election night.
McCain 50.5, Obama 47.5, Barr 1, Nader .5, scattering .5

McCain takes all the current toss-up states.


Version: 31

McCain supporters were getting too excited on the other map, so this is the map of McCain getting Goldwatered or Hoovered in a historic 60-38 landslide.


Version: 30

Obama gets Mondaled. The popular vote count goes into the middle of the night in NY, IL, MD.


Version: 29

I'm bored, so I crafted a crazy scenario for 2012.
McCain/Romney wins 2008. Obama takes the popular vote.
In 2012, McCain retires. Vice President Romney is nominated for President after a tough primary re-match with Mike Huckabee. Polls show Romney is in trouble in the South so he tries to have Huckabee on the ticket, but he declines, so Romney gets Mark Sanford instead.
On the Democratic side, Obama seeks to be nominated again after a landslide re-election for Senator in 2010. Says he now has the experience in both policy and campaigning. Warner and Bayh think otherwise. Bayh wins Iowa and narrowly defeats both Warner and Obama for the Democratic nomination. Bayh chooses Ben Nelson of Nebraska for Vice President, causing an upset un the liberal party base.
Meanwhile, former Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island decides that the two candidates are too conservative and mounts an anti-death penalty liberal campaign. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont accepts to run for Vice President.

Everyone thinks Chafee will hurt Bayh. It turns out he doesn't. Romney is in huge trouble in the South where Bayh's moderate stances are well received, unlike his Mormonism. Chafee runs strong in the North East and Upper Midwest, threatens to overtake Bayh in New York. Bayh makes a near 50-state campaign but Romney and Chafee don't let go.

On Election night, Bayh sweeps the Rust Belt and takes enough in the South to take Romney off-balance. However, Romney scores unexpected victories in Iowa, Connecticut and New Hampshire, because the Democratic vote is very tightly split between Chafee and Bayh.
Chafee wins Vermont and Rhode Island, as expected, but also overtakes Bayh in Massachusetts, DC, and most unexpectedly in Minnesota. He also takes ME-01, but that's not enough to stop Bayh from getting the majority of the EV.

Biggest margin of the night:
Utah: Romney 75, Bayh 17, Chafee 7, margin +58


Version: 28

Obama gets Dukakized. Somehow.
Still I hesitated on OR, MN and IA.
I don't believe this will happen. But I just wanted the McCain vultures to have something to rejoice in.


Version: 27

Updated to reflect latest polling.
Looks like FL, OH and MI are the big three this year. So much for "all elections won't be like 2004 forever". But if you look at the map, if Obama loses all three he still wins the tie. So...


Version: 26

Obama is currently leading by 4.5 in national polls.
It is hence likely that most battlegrounds would vote for him.

Obama/Webb v. McCain/Sanford

Toss-ups:

OH: O 50, M 49
VA: O 51, M 48
WI: O 51, M 48
NV: M 51, O 48
CO: O 51, M 48
NH: O 52, M 47
MI: O 52, M 47
FL: M 52, O 47
PA: O 52, M 47

Leaners:

NM: O 53, M 46
NC: M 53, O 46
IA: O 53, M 46
NJ: O 54, M 45
MO: M 54, O 45
OR: O 54, M 45
MN: O 54, M 45

Recent polling show very possible wins in Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, despite those who foresee doomsday for the Democratic nominee. Obviously Americans think otherwise.



Version: 25

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA)
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Gov. Bobby Jindal (D-LA)

Close states:
Nevada M 51 - O 48
Colorado O 52 - M 47
New Mexico O 51 - M 48
Wisconsin O 52 - M 47
Michigan O 51 - M 47
Ohio M 52 - O 47
Pennsylvania O 51 - M 48
Virginia O 50 - M 49
Florida M 52 - O 47
New Hampshire M 51 - Obama 48

Of the three Western states, New Mexico is the most Democratic and Colorado the most Obamaniac -I predict these two states will be Obama's. Nevada remains Republican.

Obama strengthens the Democrats' position in Minnesota and Iowa, but wins more uneasily in Wisconsin and Michigan.

He holds the North East despite a few close races with the exception of New Hampshire which swings -again.

The election is closer than foreseen on the Eastern seaboard, with the Carolinas within single digits and Florida being too close to call when the polls close.

Obama takes Virginia thanks to Webb (current Rasmussen polling: McCain 47, Obama 44 -pure toss-up).
If he were to take all the states mentioned minus Virginia, he would still be elected by the House of Representatives.

Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota might become more decisively Democratic this year.


Version: 24

This map is more an analysis than a prediction.
Presumptive nominees Barack Obama and John McCain.
Here is the key:
For blue and red states:
>90% means the state is safe, and unless something particularly sordid happens, it will remain so throughout.
>70% means the state should be safe, but polling makes it sometimes close, so that we cannot be sure it will "behave" as usual.
>50% means the state will likely go for the presumptive nominee of either party, unless unforeseen events shake the campaign's course.
>30% means the state is leaning, but can be caught by the other side depending on how the campaign evolves.

For green states:
For want of purple, I made the swingers green. They are ranked in order of importance:
>90% Pennsylvania, the all-important state and a must-win for Obama.
>70% Colorado : if Obama doesn't pull a strong showing there he will have difficulty going forward.
>50% New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire: the small three unknowns.

I will spare you the state-by-state analysis, but I would like to make a few remarks:
1) Obama seems to be unsettling the Republicans in the Midwest and West. The close polls in ND, NE, TX are worrying on the long-term for Republicans. Plus, he has a real shot at carrying the three Western swing states (NM, NV, CO).
2) The Eastern Seaboard is behaving oddly: the North East Democratic part is not Obama-friendly though still solidly Democratic (especially MA, NY, NJ), but the Southern part, VA, NC, SC and GA are listening to him though conservative Republican states. They shouldn't be in jeopardy for the Republicans, with the possible exception of VA, but that is interesting.
3) Michigan and Ohio are two important swing states which have very definite leans for now. But that might change, and then it will be cristal clear that if Obama can't win MI or McCain can't win OH they will be in serious trouble. Remember that the GOP does not win without Ohio.
4) The Upper South (KY, WV, AR, MO, TN) was supposed to be democratic target. With Obama, I think we can rule that out. Focus will be on MI, PA, OH, and the Western states. The Upper South will have to wait for a Warner candidacy.


Version: 23

This is not a map featuring projected vote % but chances %.
Strong = more than 80% chances.
Lean = 60 to 80% chances.
Toss-up = 50 to 60% chances.
This is a McCain v. Obama map.

Analysis:
It is obvious that Obama needs at least one of trifecta, most probably Pennsylvania. His chances in the GE rest on a win there. PA is toss-up Democratic IMO.
Obama also needs to put up a strong performance in the West, as shown on this map. McCain is a Westerner and will therefore also try to keep the West Republican. If Obama also succeeds in taking Colorado and either New Mexico or Nevada, the scenario looks, say, conceivable for him.
Another unknown is New Hampshire, which though a small state could be all-important in a close election (such as this one promises to be). Remember that if Al Gore had won NH in 2000, he would have won the election. McCain polls well in NH, which is therefore toss-up Republican.
Then there's Michigan. This is a Democratic-leaning state, but McCain polls strongly and the Democrats will probably face a difficult challenge keeping that one.
Notice that although Obama wins by a very small margin in this scenario, McCain wins in confidence states. In fact, 240 Electors are all but safe (I estimate that 240 have a 70% chance or more to go for McCain). This is now McCain election to lose, but Obama can still pull a win if the Democrats show sufficient unity (I mean sufficient, not perfect).


Version: 22

This is a sick of 2008 map.
McCain wins 2008.
This is 2012.
D: Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) - Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
R: President John McCain (R-AZ) - Vice President Mark Sanford (R-SC)

Warner wins 54 to 44.


Version: 21

Obama's best case.
Let's say McCain has a Lewinskylike problem...


Version: 20

Obama is found to have an Islamic terrorist cousin five times removed...
McCain's best case win.


Version: 19

Obama - McCain.
Best realistic case for Obama. No Nebraska, Alaska, Missouri or North Dakota ;)


Version: 18

Another crazy scenario...
The Democratic Convention turns into a stalemate... Clinton and Obama make a deal in which they agree to put their name on ballot only in states which they have won in the primaries. (For practical purposes, it will be agreed that Obama wins Montana, Oregon, North Carolina and South Dakota, while Clinton wins Kentucky, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Indiana)
Each candidate campaigns in his or her respective states, while John McCain campaigns nationawide.
For practical purposes, they nominate Tim Kaine of Virginia (for Obama) and Evan Bayh (for Clinton) for Vice President. However, it is agreed that the candidate who wins the most electoral vote (most likely Clinton) will be elected President of the United States by the House of Representatives, while the other (Obama) will be elected Vice President by the Senate. Moreover, Clinton agrees to step down after one term (lest she wants a 2012 déjà vu of 2008).

Red denotes Obama, Green Clinton, Blue McCain.

In 2012, Barack Obama is elected President of the United States, taking Senator Mark Warner as Vice President.


Version: 17

Let's say for a second, Obama and Clinton decide to end the nomination process and both run for President. Here is the map of their three-way race with McCain.
Republican vultures, enjoy.

In all states where he does not win, McCain comes in second.


Version: 16

Obama v. McCain

Despite McCain polling well in PA, I put it Democratic because I think he will win it eventually.
Also, McCain will have to defend states normally safe for the GOP: Alaska (Rasmussen shows only a 5% lead for McCain -less than in Ohio ???), Virginia, Texas (where he doesn't poll well). Things won't be eaasy for him either. All this excitement about Obama polling badly in the North East overshadows the fact that McCain polls really badly in the West and in Texas.


Version: 15

Currently projecting a win for Senator McCain (R-AZ) over Senator Obama (D-IL). A win in all "big three" purple states makes it an unavoidable victory. However, evolution of the situation in OH, PA, NJ, VA and MI and the Western swing states is crucial. Democratic victory still likely (60-40, I'd say -debatable).


Version: 14

Obama/Easley v. McCain/Sanford
Closest states:
New Mexico 49-49
Nevada 48-49
Virginia 48-50
Missouri 48-50
Ohio 48-50
Colorado 50-48
Wisconsin 50-48
Florida 48-51

Other swing states:
Oregon 53-45
Iowa 53-45
New Hampshire 52-47
Connecticut 52-47
Arkansas 44-54
West Virginia 45-53
Minnesota 52-47
Michigan 53-46
Kentucky 44-54
Indiana 45-53
Pennsylvania 53-46

Strongest margins:
Utah 65-31
Wyoming 63-35
Idaho 62-37
Nebraska 62-37
South Carolina 61-36
Vermont 62-36
Rhode Island 61-38


Version: 13

Obama/Easley v. McCain/Sanford.
Many uncertainties lead me to this painful and pessimistic conclusion.
Polls say Obama is growing strong in the West, but political analysis says differently -McCain is in friendly territory.
Ohio and Florida are very close, but both tilt to McCain and it seems that Obama would not be strong there, though I think that can be changed.
Possible wins in MO and VA are anything but certain, so... McCain until we know more.
Pennsylvania would be safer with Clinton perhaps, so toss-up for now. Wisconsin -not sure about that one, toss-up Dem for now.
In the end, close McCain win 279-259, but confidence shows my state of mind better: 228 for Obama, 189 for McCain. This is Obama's election to lose, the Democrats are up and the GOP is down. However, Obama will have to do some pretty good campagning in critical states if he wants to enter the White House.


Version: 12

Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Evan Bayh (D-IN) 46%
John McCain (R-AZ) / Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) 52%

Due to massive pessimism among Clinton Democrats, I created this map starring their hero against the GOP frontrunner.
After losing the primary vote, Senator Clinton of New York is nominated through political intrigue at the Denver Convention. Despite the pressure put upon her by the DNC, she picks Senator Bayh of Indiana, her faithful supporter, for Vice President, instead of the primary favorite, Senator Obama of Illinois.
Senator McCain, after handily winning the Republican nomination, chooses Governor Pawlenty of Minnesota, also his supporter, but receives the massive support of the conservative leaders of his party. He criticizes the nomination of Clinton, which is obviously undemocratic.

On election day, the Democratic base is still bitter and divided, while most Republicans, afraid that Senator Clinton might be elected against all odds, turn up in large numbers.

Senator McCain carries 52% of the vote, and swings the states of Minnesota (thanks to Pawlenty's support), Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Connecticut (where Senator Joe Lieberman heavily campaigned for him), New Hampshire, and Oregon.
Clinton wins a surprising but razorthin victory in New Mexico, and carries her kind-of-home state of Arkansas (the place she was first lady, anyway). Iowa swings Democratic by a thin margin.


Version: 11

Barack Obama/Mike Easley 51%
John McCain/Rudy Giuliani 46%


Version: 10

Doomsday for the GOP. Barack Obama and Mike Easley sweep the coutry with a 44% plurality, while Republicans John McCain and Tim Pawlenty carry 30% of the vote, Libertarian Ron Paul 10%, and Conservative candidate Jim Inhofe wins 12%.
Inhofe does well in the South and in KS and OK. Paul does well in ND, SD, MT, WY, ID and AK losing these states for McCain, who carries only UT and his home AZ.
Closest contests include:
Idaho: Obama 37, McCain 36, Paul 17, Inhofe 8.
Nebraska: Obama 38, McCain 37, Paul 14, Inhofe 10.
Kansas: Obama 35, McCain 33, Inhofe 18, Paul 13.
Oklahoma: Obama 36, Inhofe 33, McCain 27, Paul 4.
Alabama: Obama 33, McCain 31, Inhofe 30, Paul 5.
Texas: Obama 35, McCain 32, Inhofe 20, Paul 12.
Montana: Obama 36, McCain 34, Paul 18, Inhofe 11.
Wyoming: Obama 37, McCain 35, Inhofe 14, Paul 13.
Arizona: McCain 44, Obama 39, Paul 9, Inhofe 8.

Biggest margins include:
Illinois: Obama 57, McCain 28, Paul 8, Inhofe 6.
New York: Obama 53, McCain 33, Inhofe 7, Paul 6.
Massachusetts: Obama 56, McCain 33, Paul 6, Inhofe 4.
Utah: McCain 42, Obama 25, Inhofe 20, Paul 13.


Version: 9

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/ Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) - 52%
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/ Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) - 45%
Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)/ Daniel Imperato (L-FL) - 2%
According to a Time poll, Obama would win with a 7% margin to McCain. This map represents such a victory as I see it.
Richardson balances Obama's lack of experience, and is instrumental in NM.


Version: 8

Seeing as my last map created a consensus against a McCain victory, I change it to a more optimistic one.
Clinton/Bayh 50%
McCain/Giuliani 46%
Paul/Imperato 3%
I hope it suits you all better. I still don't think Obama will win though I support him 100%.
And I hope OK is not too strong on this map lol.


Version: 7

Doomsday for the Dems. Brokered convention, messed-up campaign, bad blood.
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-NY)
v.
Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
McCain 53, Clinton 46.
Closest states are MN, MI, CT, AR and IA.
Heavy Clinton losses which make the Dems lose the Senate : only Warner wins in VA -Shaheen loses to Sununu, Allen to Collins, Landrieu to Kennedy, GOP holds OR, MN and NM. Lieberman goes on to caucus with the GOP, which makes 49+1 to 49+1 with Giuliani breaking the tie for the GOP.
Most useless VP candidates in history, lose both their home states by a 20-percent margin.


Version: 6

Obama/Richardson vs. Romney/Barbour
Latest poll showed an Obama lead of 25 %. Assuming that lead is kept until November, this shows Obama 62%, Romney 37%.


Version: 5

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) - May. Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) 49%
Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - Gen. Wesley Clark (D-AR) 50%

Clinton wins the popular vote, but loses the election for narrow losses in Virginia, Ohio and Missouri.
IA Clinton 53 McCain 46
NH Clinton 51 McCain 48
WI Clinton 51 McCain 48
PA Clinton 50 McCain 49
OH McCain 50 Clinton 49
MO McCain 50 Clinton 49
VA McCain 51 Clinton 48
WV McCain 53 Clinton 46


Version: 4

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) - 50%
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) / Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS) - 49%
Close race, Clinton wins because of McCain's Iraq position, and because a change at the White House is seen as necessary.
OH, VA, MO, OR, NH and PA are particularly close. McCain keeps West and South, except for Arkansas. Bayh fails to give Indiana to Clinton (too much of an uphill battle) but is an asset in Ohio.
My opinion is that the race will be decided in the rectangle that goes from Iowa to Pennsylvania and from Missouri to Virginia. These states, Northern South, Southern Midwest, are a true battleground. With McCain or Romney in the race, the Dems attention will switch from the West which the GOP will hold to the Midwest and the Upper South (which explains the nomination of Bayh).


Version: 3

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)-Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) 56%
Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)-Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS) 42%

Sweep for Clinton in North East, Midwest, Upper South, Pacific, NM and CO, and FL.
Closest races: Nevada, Colorado, Arizona in the West. Tennesse, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana and Kentucky in the Upper South


Version: 2

Clinton/Clark 53, Romney/Barbour 46.
Clinton carries North East with absurd ease. Romney strong in MI but can't take it back. Clinton strong in upper south, that is MO, AR, KY, VA (Mark Warner factor), and maybe WV. Romney holds West except for NM and blesses his mormonism for keeping so many states there.


Version: 1

Clinton v. McCain (current favorites) 47%-52%
Last polls show a lead for McCain (about 5%), which explains why the map is at odds with the majority of users.
North East:
McCain takes NH, PA. I'd have put Maryland, New Jersey and Connecticut (Lieberman factor) too but that would be only with a national 10-point margin, 1988-like.
Midwest:
McCain keeps OH,IN and MO, takes WI (not sure). There is a possibility that Clinton swings Iowa even if she loses, Dukakis-wise, but that is unlikely.
South:
Sweep for McCain, except for AR which goes to favorite -do you say daughter?- Clinton, especially if Wes Clark is on the ticket.
West is an easy sweep for McCain (AZ especially), with wins in CO, NV, NM like Bush with the advantage of being from the area. If Richardson on Democratic ticket, maybe NM swings to Clinton.
Pacific: AK and HI just as usual, Clinton keeps CA, WA, loses Oregon (perhaps).


Version History


Member Comments
 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-06 @ 17:40:33
Missed:
-1 call, IN.
-5 percentages, AK, DE, HI, MD, MO.
NE-03 and ME-01 results unknown. NE-02 too close to call.

101 to 105 out of 112 right.
90.2 to 93.8 right.

Not bad, I'd say.

As far as specific percentages are concerned, here are the state where I missed one candidate's percentage by more than 2 points (meaning a margin missed by more than 4):
AK, DE, DC, MD, MS, NV, ND, VT and WY.

Got exactly right: MO, NH, NY, NC, TX.

So... Pretty good results, I'd say. The credit goes 80% to polls, 15% to my guts, and maybe 5% to my brains. :-)

Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 09:35:16
prediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 18:45:16
Yes French, let this be a lesson to those who try to claim the polls aren't right, and that they can magically know how the electorate is going to vote, because the "real americans" are on their side.

The polls are almost always correct.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 01:30:20
Pretty good, French, but you missed the call on IN, not MO. You missed CT%, too, at 60.2%. How'd you miss DE & MD??? prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-07 @ 09:50:39
I don't know. I just didn't figure out the Obama wave correctly in the North East, and generally underestimated his vote. I thought the really heavy Dem vote was concentrated in NY and New England.

Thanks for the typo, I was just slightly tired. :-)

I didn't exactly now about CT when I posted, I only knew it'd be around 60%. Apparently I missed it, since I don't think the 1.8% will change that result. No place in CT is Republican enough. :-)
And I also missed MT, where the popular vote is finally just under 50% for McCain.

I was really impressed by the Obama surge. Especially happy about Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina. And also the gigantic swing in Nevada. You know, the state than leaned McCain throughout and saw the light in mid-october?

Things I'm disappointed about:
-the Senate race in Alaska. Stevens' reelection is an utter scandal. These people are completely stupid and immoral. So much for the holier than thou GOP. Their new motto will be "proud to be corrupt".
-in Minnesota, though I don't really care about the Senate race, Michele Bachmann's reelection is also incomprehensible.
-in California, the so-called open and progressive state, the failure of Prop 8 is a shame. Such intolerance, among Democrats and Republicans alike, is just beyond words.

So I'm now at 99 to 103 correct, which means from 88.4 to 92%.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 14:45:39
The gigantic-ist swing (from '04) was Indiana. Look at NYT trend map and behold the block of deep blue that is Indiana. LOL.

The toughest calls on percentages, IMHO: MA, CT at 60%+, & DC at 90%+ !?!?!. These exceeded polling and pre-election projections. Very few got all three correct.
Anyone calling HI at 70% and CA at 60%+ should be pretty happy also.

I take it Liep will wait until certification of results - early Dec.(?) to post scores. Anyone know?
prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-07 @ 16:25:19
California, Massachusetts could be anticipated with polls (which I did).
Connecticut was tougher.
Hawaii -it would have been a wild extrapolation and a terrific insight.

For DC, my reasoning was simple:
1) John Kerry performed very well in DC, winning 89% of the vote. That could mean the Democratic vote is now going to recede somewhat, but it could also mean DC is trending Dem (as far as it can without crossing the 100% line...).
2) Barack Obama will perform better nationally than Kerry. The only reason where that was seriously in doubt was the western part of the South (KY, TN, AR, LA, OK). There was no reason DC would escape the trend.
3) DC is heavily AA-populated. Meaning huge turnouts for Obama.

If I had anticipated a white, losing by 3 candidate like Kerry, my projection would have been slightly lower, probably 86 - 12. However, both the black vote and the national trend made me lean toward a figure slightly above 90%. But the 93% figure is simply huge.


prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-12-13 @ 19:12:27
Hey I've just noticed something: there are a heck of a lot of state with two Dem senators and a Dem governor:
New York
Illinois, that is depending on how many special elections they run for senator and governor :-( IMPEACH BLAGOJEVICH NOW!
Michigan
New Jersey
Virginia
Massachusetts
Washington
Wisconsin
Maryland
Colorado
Oregon
Arkansas
West Virginia
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Delaware
Montana
for a grand total of... 17 states! Hope is on the way, people...
Of course, this is taking into account the 111th incoming Congress.

And here is a theorem: where you have two Democratic Senators, the governor is Democratic, except in California, Hawaii, North Dakota, and maybe Minnesota if Franken pulls this thing by 1.27 votes. And unless, of course, you count socialists and traitors. I mean, Connecticuters for Lieberman.

Now look at the Republicans...

14 states have two Republican senators (for those have trouble with math, there are 20 such Democratic states, 22 if you consider the caucus).

And what's more, the theorem doesn't work quite as well with the GOP:
-Some do have a GOP gov: that would be Texas, Utah, Idaho, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and South Carolina (7, the big Republican Bushian Texas, two of the hyper-GOP trifecta out west and four of the very Deep South).
-7 are exceptions, which is kind of odd because they're as numerous: Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Maine and Arizona (actually, Arizona should be moved in the upper category if the 2009-11 period is to be considered, since Janet Napolitano's successor will be a Republican woman).
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-12-17 @ 03:56:52
It looks like, when all is said and done and the very last straggler write-in votes will be made official in the next 30-60 days, that Obama's national winning margin will be +7.24.

Of this, I am 99.999% sure, but not 100%. But it looks like it.

With that in mind, that makes the national swing from 2004 to 2008: +9.70.

With these numbers now set in stone, I am just about to produce the end-statistics in a massive way. Stay tuned.
prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-12-22 @ 17:19:13
101/112 is about 89-90%. Not bad.

Actually, a 2004 map would have got a 70/112 mark, or 62-63% score.
42 points lost:
20 lost in NV, CO, NM, IA, OH, IN, VA, NC, FL and NE-02, which swung (2 each).
22 lost in HI, AK, CA, MT, UT, ND, NE, NE-01, NE-03, KS, TX, WI, IL, MO, MD, DE, DC, VT, RI, CT, NY and ME-01.
Please notice that all the swinging was from Bush to Obama in terms of states (all >50 Bush except NM, IA (>40) and NE-02 (>60) to >50 Obama except NC, IN and NE-02 (>40)) and an increase in Dem percentage in Obama states or a decrease in GOP percentage in McCain states in terms of percentages (that increase/decrease was always 10% except in Hawaii, where it was 20%).
prediction Map

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-12-24 @ 07:01:16
I did call Hawaii at 70 per cent...but not CA at 60 percent...on to 2010!prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-02-11 @ 05:10:24
What if scenario for NO ELECTORAL MAJORITY:

A change of 494,349 votes (0.38% of the national total) from Barack Obama to John McCain results in an electoral tie:

NE-02: 631 votes
NC: 7,089 votes
IN: 14,196 votes
CO: 107,494 votes
VA: 117,264 votes
FL: 118,226 votes
OH: 129,449 votes

The election would have been decided by the House of Representatives.
prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-02-11 @ 05:28:59
What if scenario for MCCAIN WINS:

A change of 528,496 votes (0.40% of the national total) from Barack Obama to John McCain results in a victory for John McCain:

All states above: 494,349 votes
NH: 34,147 votes

McCain:
60,463,310 votes
46.02% of the popular vote
273 electoral college votes

Obama:
68,928,402
52.47% of the popular vote
269 electoral college votes

John McCain is elected President of the United States.

I challenge anyone to find a McCain victory with a lesser swing of votes. :-)
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 12 1 115T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 23/33 54/66 81.8% pie 2 1 40T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 44/52 9/52 53/104 51.0% pie 10 - 64T231
P 2010 Senate 34/37 28/37 62/74 83.8% pie 24 4 21T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 6 1T103
P 2008 President 54/56 47/56 101/112 90.2% pie 64 1 6T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 19 4 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 4 2 50T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 21/52 58/104 55.8% pie 16 - 52T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 35/49 15/49 50/98 51.0% pie 15 - 52T235
Aggregate Predictions 380/429 253/429 633/858 73.8% pie


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