Comments History
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hideVersion: 51
Possibly my final map....it's going to be very tight and very close....probably like 1976 Ford v. Carter. Most of the toss-ups can go either way and there will be PLENTY of surprises such as Oregon, Washington State, Wisconsin, New Hampshire Minnesota and Pennsylvania being very, very close.
Version: 50
Percentage of Obama Cultists unable to name a single position, accomplishment or belief of the Messiah.
Version: 49
Changes:
PA and ME to McCain
WI to Obama.
Version: 48
Cannot wait for the cultists to attack this map.
This was the weekend that the race changes forever until the election in ten days. This is no longer a pro-Obama trended election and is now even lean McCain. The Joe the Plumber/Spread the Wealth message has 100% sunk in and with reminders of Obama's weaknesses (by none other than his own runningmate whom is supposedly not a drag on the ticket).
These issues have dramatically changed the dynamics of the race.
I will now predict fairly confidently that McCain wins the election.
Version: 47
I see the "Spread the Wealth" message taking hold in a big way and I see this election breaking now towards McCain...possibly decisively so by the end of next week.
Changes today:
MO & NC from toss-up to lean McCain
MN & WI from toss-up to lean Obama
NH, NV from toss-up Obama to toss-up McCain
IN from lean to strong McCain
Version: 46
A couple of changes which resulted in an unexpected tie today:
Moved Nevada and NM to Obama.
Again, not based on anything other than the news of the day, demographics and political culture...will probably change again tomorrow.
Version: 45
Minor changes today:
NH and ME to Obama....I'll probably vaciliate NH daily as it will be razor thin either way.
Version: 44
Unbelievable this race is! Biden's idiotic comments about the international crisis to "test Obama" and the breaking story that Biden told donors that Obama may have the wrong response initially is just as damaging as the "spread the wealth" comments. The momentum of this race has definitely shifted even if the media and the "polling data" has yet to acknowledge it. Again McCain's race to lose and I'm seeing more shifting towards McCain today....CO and ME to McCain today and a few more to toss-ups from lean Obama.
Florida is now looking much better for McCain too based entirely on the exploitation of the Biden comments by the McCain campaign.
Version: 43
I'll be updating frequently now....
Today's change...Colorado from McCain to Obama.
Version: 42
I'm once again starting to see that this is McCain's to lose yet again. The media may have gotten this race much more wrong than I originally expected especially after reading comments of so many Obama supporters that actually believe the ACORN scandal doesn't hurt Obama in a major way...or dismiss it as fabricated. I believe in the past week it's had a major impact...but PALES in the impact of Obama admitting on camera he's a socialist by telling Joe the Plumber he wants to spread the wealth around. Those four words will have more impact on this race than Obama cultists would like to admit.
And btw, it's absolutely pathetic that the media and the Obama campaign have decided it was okay to personally attack this guy Joe who did not nothing but ask a tough question to a Presidential candidate. I guess in the mind of the cult, questioning the Messiah is grounds to be personally destroyed.
Once again, the focus of the race has changed yet again (what a year) and I think the focus is now on whether or not Obama is a socialist (and if you are paying attention he's very obviously a socialist).
I now am thinking this is a lean McCain race 50-48
Version: 41
This could easily switch back to Obama again. For now, I believe the perceived halt in the stock free-fall combined with the ACORN scandal and the direct ties to Obama will be enough to move Florida back to McCain.
In the end, it will be a repeat of 2000 in that Florida may decide it all...I never would have thought this a month ago.
Version: 40
This map pre-supposes that enough Americans watched this last debate to make a difference. McCain's best performance possibly ever, in any venue. And Obama was at a loss to explain many of his positions. I don't believe it will be enough though as it's probably too late.
Version: 39
Well it is painfully obvious that McCain refuses to actually campaign the way he needs to to win and would rather appear to be "above the fray".
The economy is in the crapshoot. McCain blew it.
Version: 38
Well, McCain did okay in the debate but did not do anything near what he needed to and in fact never once raised Ayers or Wright which is a mistake of immense proportions.
Obama did well in this format especially on foreign affairs unlike the first debate which I think was such a horrible, horrible performance by Obama and made him look like an amateur high school debater. This performance wasn't blowing anyone away but it didn't need to be. He needed to look plausible and he appeared as such.
With the market tanking another 500 points today and with McCain shockingly proposing a $300 billion bad mortgage govt. buying scheme, I think the momentum just shifted today decisively. Still McCain's to lose, but he seems to be trying to do it at this point.
Version: 37
I think we are seeing a shift again. More towards the McCain landslide model and away from the close election. With McCain pulling out of Michigan though, I have moved it from a McCain toss-up to an Obama toss-up.
Mind you, I do not look at polling for analysis.
Version: 36
It's clear that the ground has shifted in the last week and no I am not referring to the polls. McCain had an amazing opportunity to come out forcefully against the use of government taxpayer dollars for the bailout and thus set up a situation where he and House Republicans were opposed to Bush and Obama and the Democrats. He could have proposed, in a press conference, loan guarantees, free market reforms and elimination of capital gains and corporate taxes. It would have been well received and put Obama on the defensive. Instead McCain squandered the opportunity and voted for the bailout. I think his landslide died with that vote. It also changes the dynamics of the race. We are still a month out and that is a political eternity. The VP debate "could" boost his campaign again but we'll have to wait and see.
For now several states have shifted, a few more appear to be toss-ups and a couple are not as strong as before.
Again, this is not an analysis based on polling at all.
Version: 35
The financial crisis has certainly blunted the momentum of the McCain landslide...while still I see virtually no clear path to a victory for Obama and while McCain will still decisively win, I think the margin has narrowed and a few states have switched back to Obama on my map.
Version: 34
Some minor changes to reflect events in the past few days.
A side note:
The notion that Sarah Palin is not a factor is pretty much fantasy. The Republican base has not been this energized since 1994. Her appeal to independent women and to Reagan Democrats continues to be strong despite the negative press and those trying to tear her down. Even those sacred polls that some cling to show she's viewed more favorably still than Biden.
Biden is the real drag on the Obama ticket not Palin on the McCain ticket. Biden in the last week and a half has made severe gaffes...the worst being caught on tape telling a women that he wants no coal plants in the US. Can we say kiss Pennsylvania good-bye?
Version: 33
Few changes...edging towards Carter 1980
Version: 32
My maps from here on out are no longer about whether McCain or Obama are going to win. I think it's very clear that McCain will be elected. The question is merely how large the McCain victory will be.
There are basically four scenarios that the McCain victory will fall into:
1. A Bush style win by a few EV votes.
2. A Bush the First style landslide with a sizable EV vote margin.
3. A 1980 Reagan style landslide with an overwhelming EV vote margin.
4. A 1972 Nixon or 1984 Reagan blowout with virtually unanimous EV vote.
I believe we are way past scenario 1. We are already in landslide territory it will just be a matter of magnitude.
I believe scenario 4 to be very unlikely as there is still a core of cultists and other Obama supporters in certain states.
Right now I lean towards scenario 2 but will not be surprised if the coming weeks deliver us scenario 3.
States to watch for switches on my map:
IA, OR, NJ, ME, CT, DE, HI
Version: 30
We are looking at a totally new ballgame....
I don't believe it's a question of whether McCain/Palin wins but by whether it is a comfortable win or a tidal wave.
Version: 29
If the election were held right now...
Version: 28
McCain/Palin - 55%
Obama/Biden - 45%
Analysis:
Palin Situation:
The backlash against the most vile campaign of personal destruction possibly in modern political history is going to be severe. It is so obvious that if Sarah Palin were a man she would not be attacked so viciously. Can you imagine a reporter wondering out loud how "Obama can run for President when he has small children at home?" yet this is exactly what a CNN reporter did live on air. Millions of women are going to get fed up with this line of attack and quickly.
And the Obama campaign is making a major mistake if it thinks opening up a line of attack on her pro-life bona fides is going to be a winning issue for them. Evangelicals and other pro-lifers were lukewarm at best to a McCain candidacy and now will be out in greater numbers than ever (much more than enough to off-set any new voters Obama attracts) because by attacking Sarah Palin's pro-life stance, they are essentially attacking the core values of these voters. You will recall that a LARGE reason Kerry lost in 2004 was because 22% of voters cited Moral Values as their primary motivation and chose Bush over Kerry more than 6 to 1. Expect a similar outcome if abortion is brought to the forefront as the Obama campaign is so stupidly doing by airing ads in 7 states. Abortion is not a winner for the Democrats. Those that vote specifically on abortion and mainly on abortion tend to vote for the pro-life candidate almost 3 to 1. These voters were mostly conservatives that were not enthusiastic about the McCain candidacy and were voting holding their noses or not voting at all. Thanks to the attacks on Palin, expect 2004 turnout in Ohio rural counties, better than usual turnout in PA, MN, WI, MI, etc. I cannot imagine why the Obama campaign would think that the abortion issue would be a winner for them and especially by attacking a woman.
As far as the DWI of Palin's husband 22 years ago...allow me to point out that 22 years ago, Obama was snorting cocaine by his own admission yet the media thinks it is more relevant that one night Sarah Palin's husband had too much to drink in his early twenties. What a non-issue!
Version: 27
Explanation - Kool-Aide Flavor Preference of Obama Cult Members.
Version: 26
Biden?!!!
LMAO - So now that the Messiah has laid his hand on the table and exposed himself as a run of the mill politician instead of an agent of change, this race is done for. More sure now that no matter whom McCain picks, we are looking at a Dukakis sized landslide...and I suspect I'll be moving more states to the GOP over the course of the next few weeks.
Changes from my last map:
Delaware: I think Biden will probably keep Delaware in the Democrat column by a VERY narrow margin...probably a few thousand votes.
Maine's 1st District: Thought McCain had a decent shot but not so sure anymore.
Washington: Look for a McCain surge here after the convention...same thing in Oregon.
Maryland: Look for extremely polarized racial voting here. Outside the deep South, Maryland has the highest percentage of black voters so this should keep the state Democratic with the help of the latte liberal crowd in the University towns. But it's not going to be a walk in the park like it's been in the last 4 elections.
Version: 25
Very sorry but I'll have little time for comments in the next couple of weeks...swamped with my business (which is a good thing :-) )
Analysis:
It is becoming increasingly more clear to me with every passing day that this will not be a close election and that all the pundits got it wrong.
I believe it will be McCain in a blowout.
Version: 24
Moved Minnesota and Oregon barely over to Obama, but the general outcome remains the same.
At this point I'll make the following predictions:
Presidential race:
VA - McCain 55%
Obama 45%
NJ - McCain 46%
Obama 54%
Best McCain state - WY 70-73%
Best Obama state (outside DC) - NY 60-62%
Whites - McCain - 68%
Obama - 32%
Blacks - McCain - 8%
Obama - 92%
Hispanics - McCain - 45%
Obama - 55%
Jewish vote:
McCain - 35%
Obama - 65%
Voter Demographics:
Non-Hispanic Whites - 74%
Blacks - 13%
Hispanics - 9%
Asians and others - 4%
CONGRESSIONAL ANALYSIS:
My Congressional analysis has changed somewhat in the past month or so. I know longer see a tidal wave of Republican losses.
Prediction for the House - Democrat gain of 3 to 7 seats.
Prediction for Senate -
Likely Democrat gains:
NH - Sununu loses to Shaheen
VA - Warner beats Gilmore
NM - Udall wins
Pure Toss-up:
Colorado
Alaska (if Stevens loses primary...if he wins this goes to Likely Democrat gain)
Likely GOP hold that the national media says is lean Dem or a toss-up:
NC - Dole wins very, very easily
MN - Coleman by 10 points
OR - Smith by 5 to 6 points
KY - McConnell by 10 to 15 points
ME - Collins by at least 15 points maybe more
Likely Democrat holds that the national media says are competitive:
NJ - Lautenberg by 5 points almost exactly.
Only lean Democrat and the sleeper race of the year:
LA - Landreau is in trouble by virtue of the D next to her name as Democrats are an endangered species in Louisiana. However, she is forcefully FOR off-shore drilling and has a moderate record so she leans as the favorite.
Version: 23
Haven't posted in so long because our business is booming and very distracted with working so won't be able to comment much.
However, I am more sure than ever about my previous analysis that this election will not be close and Obama is destined for a landslide defeat.
There will be millions of bewildered cult members on election day that just don't understand how Obama didn't win and actually was clobbered when the media has been telling them how he is the next Christ.
Obama - 44%
McCain - 56%
Whites:
McCain - 68%
Obama - 32%
Blacks:
McCain - 5%
Obama - 95%
Hispanic:
McCain - 45%
Obama - 55%
AND VA:
McCain - 54%
Obama - 46%
Version: 22
Obama v. McCain
McCain - 55.0%
Obama - 43.5%
Others - 1.5%
Obama has peaked and the general Election has begun.
A few things are immediately clear:
1) Reverend Wright and the black nationalist church he attends will be the paramount issue of the election despite everything we hear on the media. Most Americans have not heard the story of the church or know much of the connections because Barrack and the church but will. Fully 53% of Kentucky DEMOCRATS said that Obama shared at least some of Reverend Wright's views and they voted overwhelmingly against him. More telling only 50% of Clinton voters planned to support Obama and 32% planned to support McCain...deep trouble for Obama.
2) The Republicans will be slaughtered in the Congress...absolutely slaughtered...reduced to ineffective numbers despite the national landslide defeat of Obama.
3) McCain is one of the worst campaigners and candidates the GOP has ever offered and it includes Dole. Climate change tours? People that actually care about climate change tours are already hardcore liberals that are not ever going to vote for him...he's senile loser...but he'll win in a landslide.
4) Obama is an easy target. Now have zero desire to argue over the merits of negotiating with dictators...I'm only going to analyze the political impact...and it's a nail in the coffin. If his campaign thinks this is a winning strategy then these are the worst political handlers in history. It's a several point losing issue taken at face value.
5) Most Obama supporters think because he did well in the primaries he'll do well in the general election and cite poll after poll. Polls are one of the worst predictors of actual outcomes until post-Labor Day. Mondale didn't poll so bad in May and we know how that turned out.
6) Obama will wind up with no more than 35% of the white vote nationally. He will win over 92% of the black vote. The Hispanic vote will split down the middle. Asians will go heavily for McCain. Almost 40% of the Jewish vote deserts Obama while over 75% of them vote Democratic for Congress.
7) Reverend Wright will rear his head again.
8) CA will actually become a swing state with Southern California outside of Los Angeles going very heavily McCain (over 60% in San Diego...almost 70% in Riverside Cty and San Bernadino Cty)...Obama will still win.
9) VA will not be close and none of the pundits will admit they were wrong.
10) PA and MI will be in the GOP column by larger percentages than OH.
11) White vote for McCain tops 80% in states like KY, AR, MS, AL, GA, SC...more than offsetting record black turnout.
12) Bob Barr receives less than 0.5% of the national vote and does best in GA with 3% or less.
13) Nader syphons off about 1 million votes nationwide from disaffected feminists.
Version: 21
Obama V. McCain
This map is somewhat different from the previous map I've made and presupposes that McCain's entire General Election strategy and campaign will be pursued as horribly as it has the last couple of weeks.
One or two more "climate change" tours and I'll be moving a couple of other states to the black nationalist.
Version: 20
Okay...a real map this time.
Obama v. McCain
I've given Obama the benefit of the doubt with some of these states and I do think that many of the states I have in the Obama column could easily swing away should Reverend Racist release a book or more revelations about Obama's extremist ties surface.
Version: 19
Preferred Kool-Aid of Obama cultists by state.
Blue = Grape Kool-Aid
Green = Watermelon Kool-Aid
Red = Cherry Kool-Aid.
As you can tell Louisiana cannot make up it's mind.
Version: 18
First parody map I've done and probably the last...
Reverend Racist (Wright)
vs.
The Peabrain (David Duke)
vs.
None of the Above
Version: 17
Obama v. McCain....
Obama is increasingly becoming a McGovern or at least Dukakis candidate.
Additional wonderings/analysis for discussion....after a brief tilt left-of-center in the past few years, it appears that the overall trend is once again center-right throughout much of the Western World.
Proof positive....Bertluconi (sp.) has regained power in Italy. The Socialists have under-performed in the Spanish elections...while Gordon Brown is in power in the UK he heads a diminished majority and may well lose the next general election. Stephen Harper sits in power in Canada. Sarkowsky represented a pro-American, center-right to right tilt in France. Conservatives won in Austria. Merkel is in power and in a strong position in Germany. The one seeming exception would be Australia...however, the Labor Party of Australia is far more center than left as it had been in the past...and their victory was not overwhelming.
All these worldwide trends, coupled with success in Iraq, coupled with the most liberal candidate in US history (Obama) are pointing to an overwhelming Democratic loss of the White House race in the 2008 Election. In the Senate, due to the Republicans defending twice as many seats and the Democrats fielding decent candidates, the Dems will hold on likely with two or three more seats. While I thought the House was solidly Democratic...the weakness of their probable White House candidate leads me to rate the House toss-up. I do think that the presence of many pro-life, conservative Democratic candidates tends to help the Democrats though.
Version: 16
Obama v. McCain
Not much change from my last map....I switched MN back to the Dems because Obama has recovered just a tad bit in the last week. But once this general election gets through with I am starting to sense a complete and total disaster for the Democrats....think 1972. It is well possible that there will be just a couple of red spots on my map by the end of this campaign in November.
And for the record, I was the one that originally thought McCain would be a goner and had zero chance of winning. The Democratic implosion is really epic at this point and cannot be understated.
Version: 15
Okay I need some major explaining since for months I have maintained that McCain was the absolute worst GOP nominee and under no circumstances could he win the General Election.
But, it is now apparent that the Democratic Party has cannibalized itself to the point of no way, no how can it win the election.
There is simply no way that Obama can be denied the nomination without almost a civil war breaking out that would dwarf the 1968 convention violence.
It is impossible for Obama to win the election after the revelations about his church. You cannot in America in the year 2008, be associated closely with a racist pastor and be in a church for 20 years that preaches black nationalism and compares America to Al Queda and claims the US government invented HIV to kill black people...and then subsequently be elected the US President.
This isn't a week-long story. Obama is toast...he's done...no way whatsoever, no how can he recover. His white vote total will not pass 35%. And the Hispanic vote will likely go to McCain this cycle.
I was too naive that I did not think that the Democrats could implode so overwhelmingly. They had a perfect storm and the GOP had the worst possible candidate. But they did implode and this election is for all intents and purposes over on the Presidential level.
The Democrats can expect gains in the House and Senate provided their candidates do not associate with Obama.
Version: 14
Despite my utter contempt of a McCain candidacy, I have attempted to be a bit more fair.
Obama v. McCain
Version: 13
Updated Obama v. McCain
Version: 12
McCain v. Obama
Version: 11
McCain v. Obama
Version: 10
McCain v. Clinton
Version: 9
Clinton v McCain...even more pessimistic than my last map.
Version: 8
McCain v. Clinton
Hillary - 52% McCain - 48%
Version: 7
I gave myself some latitude on this one...
Romney vs. Obama
Version: 6
Romney v. Clinton
Pretty much the same as my last map with a couple of minor changes.
Version: 5
Romney vs. Clinton
Guiliani has been a will continue to be a non-factor in the GOP primaries as I've stated from the start. McCain will likely go down to defeat as soon as Thompson drops out and his supporters will go to Romney. Huckabee will not survive Super Tuesday and will carry a few southern states...Romney and McCain will split remaining states and McCain peters out.
Romney will rally conservatives against Clinton who will beat
Obama in every state past South Carolina except Illinois.
The election will not be as close as predicted...she will lose 53 or 54 percent to 47 or 46 percent in the popular vote.
Version: 4
Considering that Romney was defeated in New Hampshire, it is fitting to do a Guiliani or McCain vs. Obama map.
Version: 3
Okay,
I'll definitely need some explaining with this map.
This is a Thompson v Hillary map.
I think my analysis of the candidates to the exclusion of all polling is the reason for my changes. The Democrats are basically setting themselves up for a loss by short term political wins now.
The Congressional Democrats has reached a new low in popularity in the history of polling. The candidates are not immune. Hillary's health care program is going to be her ultimate flaw. It received a lukewarm reception now but when the general election campaign hits they will make the Harry & Louise notorious ads of 1993 look like child's play. Regardless of any merits, Hillary's plan will be mercilessly assailed as creeping socialism. She will therefore be unable to seize the moderate mantle. This will shift Arkansas to the Republicans as well as New Hampshire. It will put Oregon in play. The one place where the fortunes of the Democrats are slightly better in this scenario is Ohio where the GOP is basically a shell of its former self...but Thompson will squeak by.
Start flaming away! LOL
The left is already dis-satisfied with Hillary. Look for Code Pink wackos and Cindy Sheehan to shadow her throughout the campaign. The far-left will cause Hillary to take unpopular stands even to a further degree than she already has. She will lose the confidence of married women. The gender gap will be strong in this election with Hillary winning about 54 or 55 percent of women...but look for a 60 to 62 percent Republican blowout among men.
Version: 2
This prediction assumes that Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination and that the Republicans choose either Governor Mitt Romney or Senator Fred Thompson...if Guiliani manages to win the GOP nod, the map changes significantly with about 150 electoral votes swinging to Hillary.
For those that have doubted the strength of the Democrats in Pennsylvania especially in relation to California there are three things wrong with this analysis.
Number One is that Philadelphia is overwhelmingly Democratic and the suburbs have been trending Democratic since 1996. This area is casting an increasingly larger proportion of the total state vote while Republican counties continue to shed population to states such as Virginia and North Carolina.
Number Two is the 2006 election results...while Democrats surged everywhere in the country (for the most part) there was a Democratic tidal wave in Pennsylvania (unlike California which if anything was not part of the Democratic trend).
Number Three California has heavily Republican strongholds in Riverside, San Bernadino, San Diego and Orange counties that are actually getting larger in population and more Republican. They are no where near stopping the tidal wave of liberal Democratic majorities that come out of Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area but will hold the Democratic victory in California down to the 53 to 55 percent range.
My guess is that the Senate Race in 2008 will be a virtually opposite the Presidential Race in every respect. I fully expect only one GOP pick-up in LA and expect GOP losses in NE, NH, VA with possible losses in AK and NM.
UPDATED COMMENTARY:
I'll be specific on which states I think Romney and/or Thompson will pull or have a great chance of winning that I don't think Guiliani can win or will have a great difficulty competing in:
MN, WI, IA, FL, OH, WV, MT, CO, NM, NV, MO
Version: 1
This prediction assumes that Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination and that the Republicans choose either Governor Mitt Romney or Senator Fred Thompson...if Guiliani manages to win the GOP nod, the map changes significantly with about 150 electoral votes swinging to Hillary.
For those that have doubted the strength of the Democrats in Pennsylvania especially in relation to California there are three things wrong with this analysis.
Number One is that Philadelphia is overwhelmingly Democratic and the suburbs have been trending Democratic since 1996. This area is casting an increasingly larger proportion of the total state vote while Republican counties continue to shed population to states such as Virginia and North Carolina.
Number Two is the 2006 election results...while Democrats surged everywhere in the country (for the most part) there was a Democratic tidal wave in Pennsylvania (unlike California which if anything was not part of the Democratic trend).
Number Three California has heavily Republican strongholds in Riverside, San Bernadino, San Diego and Orange counties that are actually getting larger in population and more Republican. They are no where near stopping the tidal wave of liberal Democratic majorities that come out of Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area but will hold the Democratic victory in California down to the 53 to 55 percent range.