PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - tmthforu94 (I-MO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:67

Prediction Map
tmthforu94 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
tmthforu94 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem261
 
Rep277
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem224
 
Rep160
 
Ind0
 
Tos154
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+40+30-10-21192231+9
Rep+10+21-40-30273256-9
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
85453442
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Well, I was wrong.
Sorry for the wrong prediction everyone!!!


My final Prediction. Pennyslvania will go for McCain. Obama hasn't done enough to draw enough Clinton Democrats over to his side. McCain has flooded the news in Pennyslvania, and due to his many stops there, has made it favorable for him.

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.56%
Obama/Biden-49.40%
Other-1.04%

Pennslvania Analysis
McCain has done lots of campaigning there, and has shown that he really cares about the people from the Keystone State. That will be important to many people, and will make them feel important. McCain will win, but it will be very close.

Virginia Analysis
Obama has done enough. He has spent enough money in this state. They say money can't win election. Well, money can certainly win important states. Hillary wouldn't have won Virginia.

Colorado Analysis
This will be a big suprise. McCain had more name recognition going into this, which automatically gave him an advantage. I expcept Republicans to come out in magnitudes in this state, giving McCain the edge.

Ohio Analysis
This has always been a close state, and this election will be no exception. This state will probably even have a recount.

Indiana Analysis
People will expect this state to be really close, but being from Indiana, I don't think it will be quite as close as expected.

State by State Results
Alabama- 61-38%
Alaska- 62-37%
Arizona- 53-46%
Arkansas- 56-44%
California- 59-40%
Colorado-49-49%
Connecticut- 59-40%
Delaware-59-40%
Florida-49-49%
Georgia-51-48%
Hawaii-61-38%
Idaho-69-29%
Illinois-60-39%
Indiana-52-47%
Iowa-53-46%
Kansas-56-43%
Kentucky-56-43&
Louisiana-55-44&
Maine-52-47%
Maryland-56-43%
Massachusetts-61-38%
Michigan-51-48%
Minnesota-50-49%
Mississippi-53-46%
Missouri49-49%
Montana-53-46%
Nebraska-60-39%
Nevada-49-49%
New Hampshire-50-49%
New Jersey-53-46%
New Mexico-51-48%
New York-61-38%
North Carolina-49-49%
North Dakota-51-48%
Ohio-49-49%
Oklahoma-64-35%
Oregon-56-43%
Pennsylvania-49-49%
Rhode Island-61-38%
South Carolina-52-47%
South Dakota-53-46%
Tennessee-55-44%
Texas-56-43%
Utah-69-29%
Vermont-62-37%
Virginia-49-49%
Washington-53-46%
West Virginia-53-46%
Wisconsin-52-47%
Wyoming-69-30%


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 66

Wow. Dispite what the pundits think, McCain has really improved in the polls. The polls are now a statistical dead heat in Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. If McCain can win all of those, and work some magic in Pennyslvania, McCain will win! Some big things will have to happen in the next 48 hours, but I think McCain can and WILL pull this thing off!
Tomorrow will be my last poll, expect something long here!


Version: 65

Obama has taken a small lead.

National Results
Obama/Biden-49.95%
McCain/Palin-49.56%

Every state results, rounded to nearest %.

Alabama- 61-38%
Alaska- 62-37%
Arizona- 53-46%
Arkansas- 56-44%
California- 59-40%
Colorado-49-49%(Obama win)
Connecticut- 59-40%
Delaware-59-40%
Florida-50-48%
Georgia-51-48%
Hawaii-61-38%
Idaho-69-29%
Illinois-60-39%
Indiana-50-49%
Iowa-53-46%
Kansas-56-43%
Kentucky-56-43&
Louisiana-55-44&
Maine-52-47%
Maryland-56-43%
Massachusetts-61-38%
Michigan-51-48%
Minnesota-50-49%
Mississippi-53-46%
Missouri-51-48%
Montana-53-46%
Nebraska-60-39%
Nevada-49-49% (Obama win)
New Hampshire-49-49% (McCain win)
New Jersey-53-46%
New Mexico-50-48%
New York-61-38%
North Carolina-50-48%
North Dakota-50-48%
Ohio-50-49%
Oklahoma-63-36%
Oregon-54-45%
Pennsylvania-50-49%
Rhode Island-61-38%
South Carolina-53-46%
South Dakota-54-45%
Tennessee-55-44%
Texas-57-42%
Utah-71-28%
Vermont-61-38%
Virginia-50-48%
Washington-52-47%
West Virginia-53-46%
Wisconsin-52-47%
Wyoming-69-30%


Version: 64

Nothing much to say. I'm still waiting for McCain to work his magic.

McCain/Palin-49.95%
Obama/Biden-49.28%

!!!RANDOM STATE!!!
Vermont Results
Obama/Biden-59.38%
McCain/Palin-39.70%


Version: 63

I'm praying for a McCain miracle.

National Results
McCain/Palin-50.34%
Obama/Biden-49.54%


Version: 62

As much as I loved the debating on my previous map, new thoughts have emerged, and a new poll has been released.

National Results
McCain/Palin-50.32%
Obama/Biden-49.59%

I personally don't think this map is "ridiculous". Something pretty big will have to happen in the McCain campaign under the next week, but I am confident that they can pull it off. Obama has so many weaknesses that just need to be exposed.

Pennyslvania-McCain to Obama
New Hampshire-Obama to McCain


Version: 61

Despite what some may be saying, things are getting much, much better for the GOP. I think due to McCain's hard campaigning in Pennyslvania and the Bradley effect, McCain can win that state. Colorado has a high military population, which should also help McCain.

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.94%
Obama/Biden-49.21%

Pennyslvania Results
McCain/Palin-49.34%
Obama/Biden-49.22%

Georgia Results
McCain/Palin-51.47%
Obama/Biden-48.21%

!!!RANDOM STATE!!!
Nebraska Results
McCain/Palin-60.67%
Obama/Biden-39.12%


Version: 60

McCain is working hard in Pennyslvania, and I think it will pay off.
McCain wins, by more than expected. Things can only get better for McCain.


Version: 59

Analysis will be here shortly.

National Results
Obama-49.62%
McCain-49.12%


Version: 58

McCain needs to do something fast if he wants to win. Hopefully, Joe The Plumber will help resurrect(sp?) McCain.

National Results
Obama/Biden-50.34%
McCain/Palin-49.56%


Version: 57

Ahh, there is another tie on my poll.

I'm not going to do a lot of talking on this one. If you want to see my analysis, just go to the previous poll.

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.86%
Obama/Biden-49.56%


Version: 56

Personally, I think John McCain had a good debate. I have talked with several people who were either undecided, or leaning towards one candidate, and they all said McCain was very impressive, while Obama was flat. Actually, one of my best friends has gone from uncommitted to solidly McCain!


National Results
John Sidney McCain(AZ)/Sarah Palin(AK)-50.69%
Barack Hussein Obama(IL)/Joseph Biden(DE)-48.96%
This election would be much different if Obama was white. I still beleive that there will be a high % of Americans, especially the hispanics, who do not want blacks to be the preferred minority.

Virginia Results
McCain/Palin-49.79%
Obama/Biden-49.60%
McCain hasn't been campaigning a lot here, and has lost his lead. I still think that Democrats are oversampled in polls. If McCain really thought he could lose Virginia, he would be spending a lot more pennies there.

Ohio Results
McCain/Palin-50.23%
Obama/Biden-49.12%
McCain should do well, thanks to last nights debate. I think McCain did great on the economy, which could really help him with concerned workers in Ohio.

Florida Results
McCain/Palin-51.47%
Obama-48.35%
In the end, older Jewish voters won't vote for McCain.

New Mexico Results
Obama/Biden-50.46%
McCain/Palin-49.12%
McCain was better known going into this, which helps him. Also, many hispanics won't vote for a black because they don't want blacks to be the preferred minority.

Yall might call me crazy, but let me remind you...Polls aren't always true! A poll came out a week before the election in 1980 showing Jimmy Carter LEADING Reagen by 12 points. :/ Republican also generally do better at getting their base out to vote.

McCain.Palin `08
True Strength for America's Future


Version: 55

Iowa is the only state to change over to Democrat in this election. Still hoping for a McCain miracle.


Version: 54

Another "fun" day.
Romney actually wins, which I wasn't expecting.

Romney/Pawlenty-50.34%
Obama/Biden-49.53%

Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong.


Version: 53

At first glance, you are probably thinking this map looks crazy. But let me remind you, this is CLINTON vs. McCAIN.
There are few new polls out, so I have nothing changed in the actualy election. So this is a "special election". McCain edges Clinton out, but there are a lot of "toss-up" states.
How do you think a CLINTON vs. MCCAIN election would turn out???


Version: 52

There's my map. Like it or hate it. Tomorrow, will be a What If? map featuring Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain. After that, it will be Mitt Romney against Barack Obama.

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.34%
Obama/Biden-49.12%

Republicans still have a chance. 4 years ago at this time, Kerry had a good lead. As you now know, it went away. The same could happen this time.

Every day, I will try choosing a random state or 2, and predict how it will turn out.
Random State Results
Oklahoma Results
McCain/Palin-64.34%
Obama/Biden-35.03%

Oregon Results
Obama/Biden-53.23%
McCain/Palin-46.49%


Version: 51

This map was intended for yesterday, but the site was malfunctioning, so the results looked funked.


As much as I hate saying this, many will not vote for Obama because he is black. I think if McCain can get in the margin of error, he will win this election. But that has to happen, so he has a lot of work to do from now till Nov. 4th.

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.49%
Obama/Biden-49.41%
McCain edges Obama out. Young and black voters do not vote in the #'s Obama was hoping for. The Kool-Aid drive will be a failure.

New Mexico
This state will be expected to vote for Obama, but won't, and here is why. 40% of New Mexico's voters are hispanic. Many may not vote for Obama because they don't want blacks to be the preferred minority. McCain also has more name recognition, since he is from a neighboring state.
McCain-49.90%
Obama-48.60%


Version: 50

Whoa! Something is messed up on this site.

Yeah, that's my map, nothing much to say now.


Version: 49

Will do my any later, right now is suppa

McCain/Palin`08!!!


Version: 48

The Democrats are coasting. Something drastic must happen for Obama to lose.
Ohio decides the election

National Results
Obama/Biden-51.46%
McCain/Palin-47.32%

Ohio Results
Obama/Biden-49.56%
McCain/Palin-49.51%

Colorado Results
McCain/Palin-50.23%
Obama/Biden-49.45%




Version: 47

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.58%
Obama/Biden-49.23%

After watching a video on New Mexico, I have moved it to "toss-up". There are many Hispanics who do not want a black as President because then the blacks would be the "preferred minority".

I'm going with Gceres on Virginia. I just can't see Obama winning the state.

Anxious to see post-VP Debate numbers.


Version: 46

When making this poll, I tried to average out polling results over the last month. I figured Democrats would have a slight lead, but lookin at the map now, I see it is different. There are a lot more states that are solid for Obama. McCain is going to have a hard time holding onto all the states because of Obama's Kool-Aid Drive and massive fundraising.

National Results
John McCain/Sarah Palin-50.23%
Barack Obama/Joseph Biden-49.56%

Virginia Results
Will be the biggest "toss-up" going into election day. McCain pulls through since this is a GOP threshold.

Colorado Results
McCain is expected to lose slimly, but ends up pulling it out.

Minnesota Results
Neck and neck all the way, but Obama barely clinches it at teh end.

When doing the "Confidence" meter, <10% was lean, and <5% was a toss-up. That wasn't the case on all states. My personal opinion was also involved.

In last nights debate, it was a tie. But due to expectations going in, a tie, or even close to a tie, was a win for Governor Palin. She showed that she isn't "weak" like everyone is saying, and shut up the critics.


Version: 45

Republicans are gaining, but by very little. Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire will be a huge disappointment for Obama, where McCain will play well. Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, and Montana will stay close, but not likely to change.

National Results
Obama/Biden-50.23%
McCain/Palin-49.23%

Florida Results
McCain-51.23%
Obama-48.67%


Version: 44

Democrats have blown things wide open.
Not quite a landslide, but it close. McCain has to beat Obama in the next 2 debates to stand a chance.

National Results
Obama/Biden-50.34%
McCain/Palin-48.50%

Ohio Results
Obama-49.49%
McCain-49.39%


Version: 43

National Results
McCain-49.34%
Obama-49.22%


Version: 42

Due to recent polling done in North Carolina, I have switched Virginia and North Carolina. Obama won't win both.
National Results
Obama/Biden-52.12%
McCain/Palin-47.16%

Virginia Results
McCain-50.41%
Obama-48.95%

North Carolina Results
Obama-49.34%
McCain-49.12%


Version: 41

National Results
Obama-51.23%
McCain-47.93%
McCain did slightly better in the debate, but we will have to wait for more polling to come out to make new estimates.


Version: 40

Colorado shifts from Obama to McCain.

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.43%
Obama/Biden-48.15%

Colorado Results
McCain/Palin-48.34%
Obama/Biden-48.12%

Waiting to see how this economic struggle turns out. This could be a big September suprise, and if everything goes perfectly, McCain could come out looking like a superhero, and would take a huge lead in the polls.


Version: 39

For me, the Republicans have lost all momentum. I'm waiting fore results following McCain's suspension of his campaign/
National Results
Obama/Biden-49.56%
McCain/Palin-49.02%

Michigan Results
Obama/Biden-49.43%
McCain/Palin-48.92%

Florida Results
McCain/Palin-51.47%
Obama/Biden-48.12%

We must hope Obama's Kool-Aid drive won't work.


Version: 38

McCain wins a very close election.
National Results
McCain/Palin-49.19%
Obama/Biden-48.96%
McCain could win by even a more healthy margin. My beleif is that most polling companies only poll in close states, which could mean McCain doing actually better. Obama could also do better, based on California and New York.
This will be much closer than the last 2 elections, just because so many states are so tight, and could come down to just a couple thousand votes. The most important states are down here.
Indiana will vote more strongly Republican than expected since they have a Republican governor running for re-election and he is expected to win handily.

Michigan Results
McCain/Palin-48.95%
Obama/Biden-48.94%
Michigan will be this election's Florida. I see a recount in this state for sure, and the winner could only win by 1,000 votes. A poll came out today that showed McCain leading by 3, which proves my point that Michigan is the most important state in this election.

Virginia Results
Obama/Biden-50.43%
McCain/Palin-49.23%
Republicans will be sad to see this state swing over to Democrat. It will be close, but close is not good enough in winner-take all mode.

Florida Results
McCain/Palin-52.53%
Obama/Biden-47.12%
Going in, this will be considered a "toss-up" state. Obama doesn't have a huge base there since he didn't campaign there in the primaries, giving McCain a huge boost.

New Hampshire Results
McCain/Palin-49.55%
Obama/Biden-49.12%
McCain wins solely because of his popularity in the state.

Ohio Results
McCain/Palin-50.43%
Obama/Biden-48.43%
Obama's Kool-Aid drives won't be enough to take back Ohio.


Version: 37

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.78%
Obama/Biden-49.02%

A nailbiter election. Western states will be the deciding factor. The state I feel the candidates need to really focus on is Colorado.

Colorado results
McCain-49.34%
Obama-49.31%

I know there are a lot of toss-up states. My definition of a toss-up state is a state that has a chance of changing from now to the election. All the gray states are states are the states that I don't feel confident that one or the other will win.


Version: 36

Yes, there is a tie. I'm not sure how it would work if there was, but I beleive that it would then go to popular vote, so here is how I see it.
National Results
McCain/Palin-49.54%
Obama/Biden-49.41%
There will be many recounts due to the closeness of this election.

Some states, meaning Florida, has gone from lean McCain to toss-up.
The 2 states to SWITCH are Colorado and New Hampshire. In Colorado, the polls have been inconsistant, therefore, I can't make too accurate of a prediction. I have McCain winning New Hampshire due to his popularity in the state. He has won the primaries there twice, and is doing some campaigning there. Obama will soon give it up, thinking he won't need NH's 4 votes, and it would be a waste of money.
If McCain campaigns heavily enough in Michigan or Pennyslvania, I have a feeling he can win one of those states. Actually, I don't think it would be impossible for him to win both. If he did though, he would be campaigning a lot there, and could lose states like Colorado, Nevada, and Indiana in the process.


Version: 35

My map...The only state to switch over is Colorado. It has a high military population, which works in Senator McCain's favor.
Republican Ticket-John McCain(AZ) & Sarah Palin(AK)
Democrat Ticket-Barack Obama(IL) & Joseph Biden(DE)

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.48%
Obama/Biden-48.93%
I think McCain should win the popular vote. Many midwestern states, like Kansas and Oklahoma, will really give McCain a popular vote advantage.

Colorado Results
McCain/Palin-50.45%
Obama/Biden-49.23%

Ohio Results
McCain/Palin-51.78%
Obama/Biden-47.54%

Michigan Results
Obama/Biden-49.43%
McCain/Palin-49.12%

Note:West Virginia is only a toss-up due to lack of polling there. In the few polls, McCain hasn't had a solid lead. I also expect it to be more competitive, since neighbooring Virginia and Ohio are competitive, and they could receive media from that.


Version: 34

Democrats have now taken over
National Results
Obama-49.98%
McCain-48.39%


Version: 33

National Results
Republican Ticket-John McCain(AZ) and Sarah Palin(AK)- 51.78%
Democrat Ticket-Barack Obama(IL) and Joe Biden(DE)-47.64

Pennyslvania Results
Obama has a small lead going into election day, but McCain still eeks out a win.
McCain-49.28%
Obama-49.21%

Michigan Results
Going in, it was a virtual tie, but Republicans just don't have enough support to pull it off.
Obama-49.43%
McCain-48.69%

Even though Obama is polling much better, I still have a feel that Republicans will win. If they can expose many of Obama's weaknesses, and convince undecided voters that they can fix the economy, Republicans should have a good election. I wouldn't call it crazy to think that Republicans MIGHT control Congress. Senate is very doubtful though.
Isaac


Version: 32

National Election Results
Obama/Biden-48.40%
McCain/Palin-48.94%

Iowa has gone from Strong Democrat to Toss-up, due to Big 10's poll today, having the race there tied. Obama appears to have around a 2-3% lead in many of the great lakes states, and if McCain campaigns enough there, he could pick a couple of those states up. I'm still having problems deciding how Colorado will vote, but for now, it is Democrat. Michigan will change this election.


Version: 31

Going back to reality...
Obama has had a good polling day, as Virginia now sways in his territory. Michigan seems to be a bit more Obama, as is New Hamphire. Not an exciting map I know, but the poll numbers havent been exciting.
National Results
Democrat Ticket-Obama/Biden-50.34%
Republican Ticket-McCain/Palin-47.95%


Version: 30

This is what I feel is the Democrats best case scenario.

Popular Vote
Obama/Biden-56.34%
McCain/Palin-42.91%


Version: 29

McCain Best Scenario
Popular Vote
McCain-59.34%
Obama-38.56%

Tomorrow will be Democrat's best scenario


Version: 28

As the days progress, I feel more and more confident of a Republican win. With some effort, we can win NJ and Penn., but it will take a bit of determination.
National Results
McCain-52.23%
Obama-45.96%


Version: 27

National Results
McCain-48.34%
Obama-46.23%

Democrats need to do something quickly to end the Republican momentum if they want to win this election.


Version: 26

The polling in the last couple days has really shaken up the political map, and it shows by comparing this poll to my last poll.
National Results
McCain-48.63%
Obama-48.18

Michigan Results
McCain-49.34%
Obama-49.30%

Nevada Results
Obama-51.24%
McCain-47.53%

New Hampshire Results
McCain-52.23%
Obama-46.45%

Pennyslvania Results
Obama-49.45%
McCain-47.34%


Version: 25

All I'm going to say, is that today is "Be Nice to a Democrat" day for me.


Version: 24

National Results
McCain-50.34%
Obama-47.46%

After Polls yesterday showed McCain leading by 7 in Ohio, I have changed Ohio from Toss-up to Leaning McCain


I totally had lots of stuff, but it disappeared. So I guess thats it for now! :D


Version: 23

The map stays the same. I am waiting for some more polling.
Note-In a poll released today has Obama with only a 1 point lead in Michigan.


Version: 22

Light colors indicate toss-up states. It doesn't really mean I think that candidate will only recieve 30+ percent.

Popular Vote
McCain/Palin-49.34%
Obama/Biden- 48.03%


Version: 21

Prety much the same map, but for now, I'm trying to bring it back to reality, so Pennyslvania is now Democrat. But depending on how much McCain and Palin campaign there, this state could go either way.


Version: 20

The Republicans should get a boost after the convention. If the election was held TODAY, this is how I see it turning out. The high amount for Republicans will most likely go down from now to November 4th, but now, we have the momentum, and could blow Obama out of the water if it happened today. Pennyslvania would be a toss-up, but I felt like being nice and moving them over to the GOP's side.

Pennyslvania Results
McCain- 48.86%
Obama- 48.80%

Michigan Results
McCain-50.2%
Obama- 48.91%

New Mexico Results
McCain- 49.90%
Obama-48.02%

Florida Results
McCain- 52.56%
Obama-46.96%

Minnesota Results
Obama- 47.67%
McCain- 47.6%

California Results
Obama- 55.34%
McCain- 42.24%

Alaska Results
McCain- 61.39%
Obama- 37.34%


Version: 19

McCain/Palin: 48.90%
Obama/Biden: 47.10%
Barr: 2.4%
Nader 1.0%
Other: .6%

Due to Sarah Palin's amazing speech last night, the Republicans have gained ground in states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennyslvania. Good pick McCain!

I can't make up my mind on Michigan and Colorado. :/


Version: 18

The Republicans take over my map now that the RNC has started. Expect it to go much higher in the upcoming days.


Version: 17

Even though Sarah Palin is having some family troubles, she still is help McCain tremendously and is keeping Obama from pulling away.


Version: 16

John McCain/Sarah Palin `08

*Green represents states I have NO clue on. :/


Version: 15

Well, I'm not feeling so confident about my picks, so my Toss-up number has dramatically gone up
:/


Version: 14

Sarah Palin was an excellent choice for McCain. Out west, he will only lose New Mexico. I say he gives up there, and works at bigger states like Michigan and Pennyslvania. I think if he and Palin spend loads of time in Pennyslvania and Michigan, they can convince them they are the ones. And if they can win 1 of those states, they should be able to win the election.
Also, due to his popularity in New Hampshire, watch that state to keep the Northeast from going all Democrat.

Popular Vote Prediction
McCain/Palin-48.49%
Obama/Biden-46.91%
Barr-3.30%
Nader-3.20%


Version: 13

Wow. Sarah Palin is the Vice President. Although she won't bring a state with her, since Alaska was already going Republican, she will have an appeal in each state, which could change this election. States like Ohio and Pennyslvania, places Hillary did well in could now go more Republican.


Version: 12

My map has gone so Democrat solely now because of the DNC. It will be back to normal after the GOP convention.
I'm hoping Obama campaigns hard in little states like Montana and North Dakota, while McCain keeps chipping at his lead in Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota. As long as Obama keeps goofing off out west, we could see many Great Lakes states going Republican, Pennyslvania, and who knows, maybe New York will jump on the bandwagon. (Doubtful)

Anyways, selecting Mitt Romney would help McCain a bunch in Michigan, but it could also hurt him in states with high evangilical voting. But he will hurt more than help

With lots of campaigning, Pawlenty could swing Minnesota over. But then again, it could be Edwards `04 all over again.

Lieberman would destroy McCain. Many Republicans wouldn't vote, and Obama would easily win this election.

Tom Ridge would make Republicans mad, but they will still vote for Mac. Pennyslvania could go Republican, and we could see a huge upset win for McCain

Sarah Palin would make Alaksa very safe, as well as woe many Clinton voters to jump ships.Due to her attractiveness, some guys could even come out and vote.

Bobby Jindal will do nothing, except shut up Conservatives. But he isn't experienced, and Democrats will attack him.

Charlie Crist will bring Florida solidly for McCain, but McCain will probably win Florida anyways. And now, he has a girlfriend



Version: 10

This map could get very interesting once McCain selects his running mate.


Version: 2

This will change once the VP picks are announced. I think Michigan could swing Republican if Romney is the VP. I also think New Hampshire will go Republican, due to McCain's popularity there. Many states, like Massacusetts and California will be more tightly contested than experts predict, with Obama squeeking it out. McCain should be able to stay strong in the Midwest. The key states this election for me are Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. McCain will probably need 3 of those to get a majority.


Version: 1

This will change once the VP picks are announced. I think Michigan could swing Republican if Romney is the VP. I also think New Hampshire will go Republican, due to McCain's popularity there. Many states, like Massacusetts and California will be more tightly contested than experts predict, with Obama squeeking it out. McCain should be able to stay strong in the Midwest. The key states this election for me are Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. McCain will probably need 3 of those to get a majority.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: tmthforu94 (I-MO) 2008-11-03 @ 21:37:04
It's been fun making predictions with you all.
May the best candidate win!
(It looks like Obama will end up being picked to win Nevada on here. That state has changed in a hurry!)
prediction Map

 By: tmthforu94 (I-MO) 2008-11-06 @ 15:41:07
Well, I was wrong.
My final thoughts
We were so close to wins in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. Looking at the results, we should have campaigned harder in Minnesota and Iowa. Virginia suprised me. I didn't think it would be that close. The 3 western Obama states disappointed me by margin.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 19:30:52
Don't worry tmthforu, I was wrong too. Sometimes you get 'em right and sometimes you get 'em wrong. Best we can be is good sports. I thought the election would go a different direction, or if Obama won it would be much closer. But I misread the signs, probably influenced by GOP leaning Missouri. At least I got to keep my home state, I was very suprised by yours.

Well now we regroup and get ready for a come back. Always look to the future. We have an intact filibuster and did not get hurt nearly as bad as I feared in the congress. But its all on the Democrats now. Let's see them govern for a while. Hell we where gone in four years time they could suffer a similar fate. We'll see.

Good to talk with you and stay strong. We'll be back.
prediction Map

 By: tmthforu94 (I-MO) 2008-11-07 @ 12:21:25
We can only pray for a Democrat tumble, for the sake of America. lolprediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-07 @ 13:12:53
lol. you guys just don 't get it. YOU WERE WRONG BECAUSE YOU IGNORE REALITY AND FACTS. and you were not CLOSE in Minnesota and you had NO SHOT AT WINNING.

And tmth, if you don't like our new president, and America, MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTRY AND MOVE TO CHINA! ;)

Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 13:13:18
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 14:35:25
"Intact fillibuster": On how many issues are all 40 GOP Senators(or 40 of 43, if the GOP is extremely lucky in 'overtime'*), including Collins, Snow, and Spector, going to agree to impose a fillibuster? Very few.

*The 60 votes to achieve a fillibuster proof majority are still achievable. Coleman now leads by around 200 votes. Stevens by 3000, with Tens of Thousands to be counted. And Chambliss needs to survive a runoff, with president-elect Obama stumping for Martin. Chances are good the Dems. end up with 59, IMHO.

Tmth - where from? Let me guess: DuBois County?
prediction Map

 By: tmthforu94 (I-MO) 2008-11-28 @ 18:59:16
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18661488/vid/24982160prediction Map

 By: tmthforu94 (I-MO) 2009-02-15 @ 19:16:25
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnie_Mouseprediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2019 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 4 10 130T192
P 2018 Senate 32/35 21/35 53/70 75.7% pie 17 1 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 16 3 6T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 3 40T149
P 2016 President 50/56 35/56 85/112 75.9% pie 18 1 66T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 16 1 60T362
P 2016 Governor 11/12 7/12 18/24 75.0% pie 14 1 3T279
P 2015 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 10 3T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 22 0 4T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 18/36 47/72 65.3% pie 19 0 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 13 17T153
P 2012 President 53/56 39/56 92/112 82.1% pie 62 1 435T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 26 1 164T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 14 1 89T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 22/52 65/104 62.5% pie 43 - 22T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 14 1 37T106
P 2010 Senate 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 128 1 34T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 25/37 58/74 78.4% pie 114 1 74T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 18 1 1T103
P 2008 President 49/56 36/56 85/112 75.9% pie 67 1 357T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 23 1 96T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 16 1 86T264
Aggregate Predictions 529/587 362/587 891/1174 75.9% pie


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