Comments History
-
hideVersion: 79
October 31...
Closest states: MO, IN, NC, ND, MT (could go either way)
OH and FL lean Obama.
House: Dem gain 25-30
Senate: Dem gain 7-9
Version: 78
October 29, 2008
Some tightening in national polls, not reflected in state polling as of yet... A few notes: I can't make up my mind on IN, NC and MO. I'm more confidant that OH, FL, VA, NV lean Obama.
House- Dem pickup of 25-30 (maybe more)
Senate- Dem pickup of 7-9
Version: 77
October 28, 2008
Some adjustment...
1.) based on polling averages moved IN back to McCain.
2.) based on the tightening of the most recent polls I'm giving McCain a slight advantage in NC.
3.) Missouri is very close- could go either way???
4.) Moved MT to lean McCain from tossup.
Ohio:
Obama 51.5%
McCain 47.5%
Version: 76
October 26, 2008
Comments:
1.) I'm most nervous about calling Missouri, Florida, Indiana and Montana at this time.
2.) Georgia may be close with high African-American turnout but still leans to McCain.
3.) North Carolina looks increasingly in the Obama Column with Virginia but could be very close.
4.) The Southwest is increasingly going in Obama's favor and even Arizona appears to be tightening considerably.
House: Dem pickup of 24-29
Senate: Dem pickup of 7-10
Ohio:
Obama 52
McCain 47
Version: 75
10/24/2008
1.) Florida narrowly to McCain (can't make up my mind on that)
2.) Indiana to Obama!
3.) Georgia to tossup
4.) Nevada to lean Obama
Version: 74
Update 10/23/2008
1.) Ohio moved to lean Obama
2.) Montana, Indiana moved to tossup
3.) Missouri and Florida remain closest states (cant decide on Florida?)
Senate 7-8 Dem gain
House 22-27 Dem gain
Version: 73
A few changes Oct. 22, 2008:
Socialist Muslim/White Guy vs. Dying of Cancer/Eskimo Barbie
1.) Florida moves to a very slight McCain advantage
2.) Ohio and Missouri tighten but slight Obama advantage
3.) North Carolina a bit stronger for Obama
Ohio:
Obama 49.50
McCain 48.50
Version: 69
McCain vs. Obama
Version: 65
Obama vs. McCain...
I dont think this is a question of who wins any longer but by how large of a win Obama has. The financial market turmoil and subsequent panic and economic uncertainty came through to save the Democrats at the last minute.
Version: 62
I still think this is Obama's race to lose. It will be a close, IMO.
Version: 61
Obama/Bayh vs. McCain/Palin
Go ahead Obamaboys- Make my day! I gave him a win because I think he is favored, at this time, but I don't believe he is capable of over 300 EV's. I'm sure it won't be a large enough win to please you all, but oh well... Blame the 'trodes!' Have a nice day. ;)
Version: 60
Obama/Kaine vs. McCain/Pawlenty...
(just a scenario)
Still Obama's race to lose...
Version: 59
Obama/Bayh vs. McCain/Romney
Obama is the man to beat!
Version: 58
This goes out to all the Obama boys... As you have said, if one poll comes out with Obama ahead in a red state, he's gonna win it... If there was ever a poll, in the past year that showed Obama remotely competitive in a red state I just gave him the that frickin' state too, because you say he's gonna win it... High black population states also go to Obama because you say so. Are you happy now? :) Now, as you would agree... What's fair, is fair, therefore if there was ever a poll that showed McCain ahead of Obama in a certain state or competitive I gave him that respective state. Of course I gave Obama the benefit of the doubt because I don't want to be a racist redneck from Appalachia anymore... And Obama is the winner!!! DING DING DING... Now I must go worship at the temple built to the Obama phallus. Its a big temple! Damn, there I go again w/ the racism!
Bonn, what's wrong with me??? I think the shock therapy didn't work... You sent old electrodes... They couldn't get through customs- you know the Patriot Act stuff... :)
Version: 57
Obama's best case scenario:
Obama/Kaine vs. McCain/Romney
Version: 56
Obama vs. McCain...
4 months out and its Obama's race to lose...
Version: 55
Obama/Kaine vs. McCain/????...
This is reflecting Mr. Obama's bounce, post Clinton exit... I'm just not sure about Ohio, at this time. I would assume Mr. Obama would have an advantage, at the time, but I'm conflicted by his campaign's comment that "we can win w/out Ohio and Florida." What does that say about his internal polling of Ohio???
WARNING to the Obama bois- This is no indication that I support Mr. Obama. I have yet accept Mr. Obama as my lord and savior!
Version: 54
McCain vs. Obama
Version: 53
McCain vs. Obama.... If the election were held today...
Version: 52
Obama vs. McCain
Version: 51
Blue= HRC
Red=BHO
Who would perform better against McCain???
Version: 50
McCain vs. Obama
Version: 49
Based on latest polling...
Obambi vs. War Monger
Version: 48
Obama vs. McCain
Version: 45
Clinton vs. McCain
Version: 44
This one goes out to all the racist, angry, diva-worshiping, on the verge of an anger breakdown, Hillary gay bois! Oh and Chica too!!!
Obama/Sharpton vs. McCain/Snowe
Lets see how many white conservative men we can get to stay home!
Hillary 2012!
Version: 43
Obama vs. McCain...
Version: 42
Obama vs. McCain
Version: 41
Obama vs. McCain
The Split in the Democratic party causes many older, conservative, blue-collar, Clinton-Democrats to switch over and vote for the more moderate McCain. Obama makes some inroads w/ wealthier, white-collar Dems. McCain hold the tide of Latino's to the Democrats to a minimum. The GOP is again successful in portraying the Dems as "anti-American" and unpatriotic, with continued scandals involving Mr. Obama and his religious beliefs and close personal relationships with certain racial groups, who are out of touch w/ the mainstream electorate. Frustration from Democrats in FL and MI, from their disenfrachisement by Mr. Obama's campaign, cause low Dem turnout or crossover votes for McCain. Mr. Obama loses MI by 2% and loses Florida by 10%.
Ohio:
McCain: 52%
Obama: 47%
Version: 39
Clinton vs. McCain...
Version: 38
Obama vs. McCain...
Version: 37
Okay, I'll play along w/ everyone else... Places I've been in Blue, not been in Red. I guess the St. Louis, Dallas and Denver airports don't count do they? Okay...
Furthest West: San Diego?
Furthest East in the US: Portland ME
Furthest South: Key West,FL
Furthest North: Sault Ste. Marie, MI..
I've been on too many plane rides to remember... Including a few horrendous 8 hour flights to/from Cincinnati and Zurich and Cincinnati and Rome. Don't remember much of them due to heavy sedation. :) Maybe it was 7 hours over and 8 hours back... Regardless, it was way TOO long to sit still... But, it was always worth it.
Version: 36
McCain vs. Obama-
Version: 35
Obama vs. McCain...
Based on polling showing Obama's general strength in the West/Uppermidwest and weakness in the South and Midwest.
Version: 34
Obama/Clinton vs. McCain/Huckabee
Howard Dean forces Obama to accpet Clinton as his running mate in that Obama has a narrow amount of more pledged delegates than Clinton after Pennsylvania on 4/22. McCain owes his wins over Romney to Huckabee, thus Huck is awarded the VP.
This is a "best case scenario" from the polling *at this time* and not indicative of what I feel could happen... So before any liberals or conservatives start yelling at me, I'm trying to be totally neutral and just offering up an opinion on what I think could happen from the polling I've seen. Also, I'm NOT taking into consideration yet, a certain 3-5% of conservatives staying home, due to McCain, in this map.
If the Obama vs. McCain polling is correct and Obama is ahead of McCain nationally, he would be able to win Ohio, though the SUSA polling shows Obama trailing McCain by 7% in Ohio and Clinton trailing McCain by 2% in Ohio. But, for sake of "best case scenario:"
Ohio:
Obama 50.5%
McCain 49.5%
Version: 33
Obama vs. McCain
This is my official Hillary concession map...lol... Looks like Hillary has really taken a beating this weekend going into 2/5- (I'm sure you are all very excited!) Good going Dems on selecting a candidate with no experience going against John McCain!!! That said, please note that this map is just based on polls from the various states that I have seen, and in the absence of polls, the 2004 result is left in place. So, there is no need to attack, my fellow Democrats... I will make changes as I'm sure they will occur.
So, In addition, obviously the intense bleaching/highlighting that Ann Coulter endures from her racist, sexist, homophobic, Nazi stylist has seriously diminished her brain cell production in her ringing "endorsement" of Clinton this weekend. I will claim the same case, except my stylist is a nice midwestern girl with a kickass personality and a rocking rack! That said I'm now facing a dilemma... I don't like Obama. I disagree with McCain. Howard Stern endorsed Ron Paul. Is this what it's like for most American's when they say they are voting for the "lesser of two evils?"
Nader 2008!!!
Version: 32
After Florida... 1/30/2008
Clinton vs. McCain
Version: 31
Clinton vs. McCain
Based on latest SUSA polls from 1/18-1/21.... Not looking so good for Clinton or Obama 10 months out!
Version: 30
Clinton vs. McCain...
Okay, so here are the two front runners... for 48 hours, at least...
Based on the latest polling, I think this is where things would start out *today*. I really think Hillary is going to have a tough time against McCain...-- Hillary supporters, PLEASE forgive me for saying this, but as much as I love her, I think Obama would do a bit better against McCain in that Obama might be more competitive against Indpendents, which is McCain's strength. Obama also appears to be in a better position to handle McCain's age issue, war stance and confront the calls for "change." Regardless of the Dem Candidate, McCain offers the GOP the best possibility for another 4 years. I think it is still possible for Hillary to win, but it would be a much narrower victory than against one of the other GOP contenders.
Version: 29
Barack Obama vs. John McCain
The two "frontrunners" at this time... How things are shaping up based on recent polling. The only change at this time is moving PA to the GOP, based on recent polling. It also appears that McCain would have a decent lead in Ohio, at this time.
Ohio Results:
McCain 51.5
Obama 47.5
Version: 28
In the spirit of New Hampshire!
Obama vs. McCain
Version: 27
In the spirit of recent events:
Obama vs. Huckabee...
The Readers Digest Version: Huckabee scares the North and Obama scares the South!
Version: 26
Finally 2008! Hillary 2008!!!
Two most likely candiates at this time:
Clinton vs. Romney
Just an update with a few confidence changes based on current polling. No state changes though I believe VA, WV, KY, TN, NC, FL and NV, CO could go either way at this time, but with Romney on the ballot the benefit should be with Clinton. I have left the "deep red" states w/ the GOP until more polling comes out verify or signify a change.
Toughest calls:
VA- all polling has showed Clinton w/a strong advantage over Romney in VA, though it is a "red state" it is trending a bit Dem. - Tossup/Clinton
KY- A solid "red state" in 2000 and 2004 I believe most polling is showing a closer race in 2008, but the state could flip Dem if Romney is the candidate. Until more polling is given, I'll keep it going GOP.
FL- Without Rudy on the ballot, I think the door is wide open for Clinton in FL, in that she and her husband maintain popularity in FL. Though trending somewhat GOP, I believe FL will flip Dem if w/Romney leading the GOP.
NC/TN- Again "solid Red" states in 2004, but inconclusive polling... Will the South accept a Mormon from Mass? Will the South accept Hillary Clinton? Tossup!
NV/CO- From polling, Hillary is very competitive against Romney in NV and CO. The two are not competitive w/ Rudy on the ticket? Though both states have a decent Mormon population, they are also quickly trending Dem and Romney is not the strongest candidate. NV-Tossup/Clinton and CO-Tossup/Romney.
Iowa prediction for 1/3/2008
(by likelihood of a win)
Dems: Edwards favored due to low turnout, and second choice "options" in case of 2nd tier getting under 15%.
Edwards 40%
Clinton 30%
Obama 30%
GOP: I have no idea, though churches traditionaly busing people to the caucuses Huckabee could be favored- though Romney has a gained support in IA from Huckabee's missteps.
Romney 50%
Huckabee 50%
Version: 25
Finally 2008! Hillary 2008!!!
Two most likely candiates at this time:
Clinton vs. Romney
Just an update with a few confidence changes based on current polling. No state changes though I believe VA, WV, KY, TN, NC, FL and NV, CO could go either way at this time, but with Romney on the ballot the benefit should be with Clinton. I have left the "deep red" states w/ the GOP until more polling comes out verify or signify a change.
Toughest calls:
VA- all polling has showed Clinton w/a strong advantage over Romney in VA, though it is a "red state" it is trending a bit Dem. - Tossup/Clinton
KY- A solid "red state" in 2000 and 2004 I believe most polling is showing a closer race in 2008, but the state could flip Dem if Romney is the candidate. Until more polling is given, I'll keep it going GOP.
FL- Without Rudy on the ballot, I think the door is wide open for Clinton in FL, in that she and her husband maintain popularity in FL. Though trending somewhat GOP, I believe FL will flip Dem if w/Romney leading the GOP.
NC/TN- Again "solid Red" states in 2004, but inconclusive polling... Will the South accept a Mormon from Mass? Will the South accept Hillary Clinton? Tossup!
NV/CO- From polling, Hillary is very competitive against Romney in NV and CO. The two are not competitive w/ Rudy on the ticket? Though both states have a decent Mormon population, they are also quickly trending Dem and Romney is not the strongest candidate. NV-Tossup/Clinton and CO-Tossup/Romney.
Iowa prediction for 1/3/2008
(by likelihood of a win)
Dems: Edwards favored due to low turnout, and second choice "options" in case of 2nd tier getting under 15%.
Edwards 40%
Clinton 30%
Obama 30%
GOP: I have no idea, though churches traditionaly busing people to the caucuses Huckabee could be favored- though Romney has a gained support in IA from Huckabee's missteps.
Romney 50%
Huckabee 50%
Version: 24
Clinton/Obama
vs.
Romney/Huckabee
Okay let me explain... Hillary and Obama kiss and make up, like Kerry and Edwards in 2004. Hillary realizes that Obama supporters are very enthused about his campaign so she wants to capitalize on this. Hillary knows she has a problem with likeability that Obama does not have, so she selects the "nice guy" on her ticket to do the attacking for her. She realizes Romney is weak and she knows with Obama on the ticket she will have some problems in the South, but she forgets about the South and tries to solidify the Base "blue states" and the "Swing states" with the help of Obama. Romney and Huckabee also kiss and make up and Romney knows that he also is not the most likeable candidate so he seeks the aide of Huckabee, who is very charismatic- much like Obama. He knows he needs someone with a strong social conservative record that he lacks.
In the end the anti-Gop sentiment and the Clinton machine are all too strong and Hillary is elected. Hillary and Obama carry the traditional "blue" states by 2-6% more than Kerry did in 2004. New York goes Dem by 61.5% The South remains GOP w/ the exception of Arkansas which goes to Hillary by 58%. Virginia narrowly flips to the Dems 50.2 to 48.4. Romney does well in most Southern states with the help of Huckabee. Romney does not fair as well in the West as Giuliani or McCain would. Nevada goes Dem 51.5 to 47.2. The cliffhanger is Colorado which very narrowly remains GOP 49.1 to 48.8. The Swing states are as follows: Ohio: 52.8 to 46.3, Florida 51.9 to 47.6, Pennsylvania 53.9 to 44.9, Missouri 51.3 to 47.5.
Version: 23
Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani (I think???)
So, it appears that after a few polls in the past few days it may just be that Huckabee has peaked and Rudy remains the front runner nationally??? Though I think that its anybodies guess who the GOP nomination will be, but most likely Giuliani, Romney or Huckabee. It also appears Hillary might be getting some of her "groove" back in NH, though Obama looks like he will take IA. That said, I still think Hillary will get the nomination???
So based on a few recent polls here is what I come up with! A few obvious changes along with some comments:
1. Missouri- sorry CR and James... But when SUSA, and Rasmussen both show Rudy trailing Clinton, its not a good sign.
2. Ohio- conflicting polling SUSA C+9, Rasmussen G+2, Quinnipiac C+4, so I have to give OH to Clinton... I would assume both SUSA and Ras are off a bit.. Her lead is probably around 2-4% in OH.
3. Florida- though some recent polls now show Clinton ahead, I'm not brave enough to let FL go Dem, especially w/ a 2008 marriage amendment- the GOP will be favored- 2004 Ohio deja vu!
4. Upper South- I think Clinton can take WV against a northern Republican- Rudy is way to pro-gay and anti-gun for WV, but I'm not sure if the same can be said for KY and VA??? I know VA will be close, given demographic changes, but I'm just not confidant enough to say Clinton can carry it.
5. Intermountain/South West- I do believe Giuliani will be favored in AZ, and CO, while Clinton will be slightly favored in NM. I think NV is up for grabs, but it will be so extremely close I have to give the GOP the benefit of the doubt
Version: 22
Hillary Vs. Huckabee
Version: 21
Okay This goes out to all my liberal friends! It's not like I believe this, but I have to do my duty to keep moral up!!lol... :)
Clinton vs. Huckabee... The absolute BEST Hillary can do against him! IMO :)
This is based on the assumption that Huckabee truly does scare the shit out of people with his religious fanatiscism and proclamations that "mentally-retarded girls, should not be allowed to have abortions in cases of rape," "AIDS patients should be quarantined," "homosexuals are sinful and abhorent" and "women should submit to their husbands leadership." I personally, think these comments will make him more popular with Americans, not less, but alas that is only my opinion...This is also under the assumption that Americans will not vote for someone that has NO experience or education is foreign policy, domestic policy, economic policy, etc... though in my opinion that idea was refuted with the election of George W. Bush in 2000.
So, naturally Huckabee is going to frighten the liberals on either coasts, so Hillary will carry the typical "blue" states with out a problem. Huckabee will most likely carry the red states without a problem, in that he seems to be fairly in line socioeconomically. I think that there is the distinct possibilty that Huckabee might scare some libertarians in the west along with some hispanics with his sharp turn to the right in regards to immigration, so I'm going to bet on 2008 being the year that NV and CO finally flip. AZ will be very close but in the end Huckabee will narrowly carry it.
Hillary might be able to narrowly squeak by in Florida due to social moderation along with her husbands popularity and a large turnout amongst the Hispanic and Jewish communities. Though with a "gay marriage" ammendment on the 2008 ballot, it will be a narrow victory.
Hillary might also be able to squeak be in Ohio with a worsening enonomic climate and the possibility that Huckabee's inexperience could leave some Ohio voters unimpressed. Again the connection with her husbands administration could very much help her, here in OH.
Ohio:
Hillary 50.1%
Huckabee 48.9%
Version: 20
Clinton or Obama vs. Huckabee
This is a basic average of the top tier Dems againts Mike Huckabee. As, I've said before I think Mike Huckabee has the potential to be the strongest Republican against any Democrat due to his charismatic personality and solid conservative credentials.
I'm still trying to "fine-tune" this prediction. In American politics it is my opinion that charisma and personality supersede experience. Also in American politics I believe that minorities are still at a disadvantage. I also believe that a candidate that expresses strong religous convictions is at a strong advantage. So, despite the anti-GOP sentiment in America, I still have to give Mike Huckabee the upper hand.
A few changes and notes from the last Clinton vs. Huckabee map:
PA and Northeast: I've waivered on this, but after giving it some thought I think Huckabee's brand of religion might be enough to frighten some female and moderate Independent voters in Philadelphia. I also think with his support for the war he will detract voters in the entire NE, as Bush did, so I have to give both Hillary and Obama the edge in Pennsylvania. That said, the Dems have solid victories in all Northeastern states.
Upper Midwest: I think MN remains Dem, but WI and IA go GOP, but very narrowly. Again I could be wrong but I would think there would be enough conservative voters in the Upper Midwest to finally swing the race to the GOP especially when the Dems would be placing minorities at the head of the ticket.
South and Lower Midwest and Intermountain West: A complete and solid sweep of the entire region by a conservative candidate, like Bush, with similar values. A very narrow win in Ohio by 2-4% with enough evangelical support behind Huckabee to keep OH GOP. Also some VERY narrow wins for the GOP in CO, NM and NV by <1-2% due to anti-immigration sentiments and again a GOP candidate that can actually connect to voters
West: Again Solid Dem victories in a liberalizing area, which would be more tolerant of minority candidates as oppossed to a Republican that might have conflicting values with West Coast liberals.
Senate: Dem 56 GOP 44
House: Dem 240 GOP 195
Version: 19
Clinton vs. Giuliani
Well, here is a scenario I'm confident Hillary can win! The fact remains that there is a simple disconnet with a liberal Northeastern mayor with the majority of Republicans, which I believe will severely hurt Giuliani in some traditionally conservative states. On the other hand the fact that he is a liberal Republican will enable many Northeastern Republicans to vote for a candidate that does support their values, but I believe with Giuliani's support of the war and current administrations' policies, it will not be enough to flip any of the Northeast to the GOP.
A few notes: There are a few states that I'm just not confident enough to give to Hillary, due to conflicting polling, though I think it is VERY possible in a Giuliani vs. Clinton match, Clinton could win Missouri, Florida and Nevada and *possibly* Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Ohio: Clinton 52%
Giuliani 47%
Oh-5 Latta(R) 53%
Weirauch(D) 47%
--- Very Close in an R+10 district, but not quite a win! If Weirauch does win or comes w/in 5% more bad news for the OH GOP!
Version: 18
Clinton vs. Huckabee
I'm not willing to say that Huckabee will be the nominee just yet, but I think things are looking better for him, at this time, than for Giuliani and Romney. I think Rudy and Mitt are simply out of touch with GOP values and are not as poised to be the nominee as they were 1 month ago! This is the "Bush conservative" the GOP has been looking for!
I'm just trying to "fine tune" my Hillary vs. Huck prediction. I think the GOP has found itself a winner in Huckabee, with his strong conservative religious convictions record of social conservatism, charisma and personality, it would be my opinion that he could beat Hillary by solidifying the GOP base- a problem Giuliani, Romney and Thompson have had. A few comments:
Oregon- Moved to tossup/Dem. I think Huckabee's strong social conservatism would turn off too many voters in this liberalizing state though he will make it close.
Pennsylvania- I'm just not sure about this one... I think Huckabee could very narrowly carry PA, if he doesn't frighten away too many voters in the Philadelphia suburbs with his right-wing views. It would be a very narrow victory if he did win, but I'd have to give him the benefit in that PA is not as socially liberal as the rest of the Northeast.
South- The South is much stronger GOP with a conservative Republican on the ballot and Giuliani off the ballot. He can easily sweep the entire region as Bush did.
Northeast/West Coast- The Northeast and West Coast, aside from PA would probably be stronger Dem, with Giuliani off the ticket and a coservative Republican on the ticket. Again, socially moderate Republicans will vote for Hillary, due to Huckabee being too conservative for them socially.
Ohio- Despite the economic problems in Ohio I have to say that Huckabee would be favored over Hillary, due to his social conservatism. Ohioans, like most Midwesterners will vote their religion above anything else.
Version: 17
Hillary vs. Huckabee
Okay now this is based purely on intution... But, after watching Huckabee debate last night and the manner in which he can work the crowd with his enthusiasm, charisma, straight-forwardness and ability to articulate a message, he is going to create a major problem for any democrat. He is anti-choice, anti-gays in the military, and pro-gun. He's a mix of an ultra-conservative version of Bill Clinton and an intelligent George W. Bush. With the religious rhetoric, and status as a Baptist minister the social conservatives will fall behind him. With his reference to the "dismanteling of the IRS" the economic conservatives will fall behind him! This is the candidate that can unite the GOP!!! He's going to be trouble and I wouldn't be surprised if he won the nomination. Rudy and Fred are stumbling badly. Romney is holding his own, but slipping in Iowa. With the infighting between Rudy and Mitt, Mike Huckabee is poised to gain some serious ground. And if he does he will beat Hillary!
Ohio:
Hillary 47
Huckabee 52
Version: 16
Clinton vs. McCain
Clinton vs. Giuliani???
In all fairness I should make a GOP win map, loathe though I am to do it...lol...
This map is indicative of what would happen in a Clinton vs. McCain scenerio. I do now believe that McCain is the only GOP contender who could solidly beat Clinton in a general electon. I think the odds are very likely that he will NOT even come close to the nomination with the vast sums of money surrounding Romney and Giuliani, but I think if the GOP wanted a sure win it would choose McCain. Regardless of his "hawkish" position on the war it is clear that McCain's Iraq strategy would have been more successful and had the Bush administration heeded his warnings it would not have been a complete disaster. It is also noteworthy that McCain *appears* to maintain his status as "maverick" while maintaining a record of social conservatism. McCain would most definitely bring about more cohesion to the GOP base, which Giuliani and Romney fail to do.
I also believe this could be a best case scenario for Rudy Giuliani provided there is a complete collapse of the "Clinton-machine," an immediate end to the Iraq war, and a quick economic recovery. This map could also hold true if the "Hillary-hatred" factor is as strong as the GOP base claims.
Ohio:
McCain 52%
Clinton 47%
Version: 15
Again this is a Clinton vs. Giluiani map.
Just some fine tuning to the map. Not much has changed as far as recent polling... Some very contradictory polling coming out of Missouri, Virginia and Florida, thus they remain in the GOP column. I'm also somewhat at odds as to place those states along the Mason-Dixon line as Lean GOP or Tossup, inlcuding, MO, KY, TN, WV, VA, NC. I'm looking forward to seeing some polling coming out of WV. From what I've seen most polling is indicating a slight Clinton advantage in red states like: Arkansas, Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio so I will put them in the Dem column for now- in that the majority of polls are either statistical ties or a Clinton lead. I also am not quite sure what is happening in CO or NV- though it appears the GOP remain strong.
My Ohio results:
Clinton 51%
Giuliani 48%
Clinton 48%
Giuliani 42%
Paul 9%
Clinton 45%
Giuliani 41%
Paul 9%
Nader 4%
Clinton 53%
Romney 46%
Clinton 48%
McCain 51%
Version: 14
In honor of election day 2007, this is my new Map. This is totally based on instinct with a little help from some polling. This is a Hillary vs. Giuliani scenario and depicts how I believe the election will end up a year from now- not based on current polling! I'm feeling more confident about Ohio, but I'm still unsure of Florida. My instinct tells me that GOP dissatisfaction is great enough throughout Ohio for Hillary to win Ohio, regardless of her perceived polariziation. On the other hand I would have to say that, unless there is a complete collapse in the housing market and a subsequent worsening of the current economic downturn, Florida will narrowly be carried by Giuliani. By the chance that Giuliani is NOT the nominee, and Romney is, I would add FL, WV, VA and MO, in that order of turning over, to Hillary for a total of 346 EV's, which I would say would be close to the maximum a Hillary victory could bring. Unlike what others on here believe, I have complete faith that Hillary is an electable candidate, but I'm well aware of the polarization she causes. I agree with the assessment from the Cook Political Report that states that Hillary is very electable but, politcally, possess a "high floor and a low ceiling" in regards to electability.
Version: 13
Clinton vs. Giuliani
Well based on most recent polling from Ohio, Virginia, and Florida all three states are moved back to GOP.
Rasmussen OH Giuliani +2
Rasmussen VA Giluinai +3
Quinnipiac FL Giluiani +3
I still would have to say that Ohio would trend slightly towards Clinton, but based on polling this is what you got!
Close one! Looks like it could go either way!
Version: 12
Conflicting polling out of Ohio, so Ohio goes back to the GOP... SUSA- Clinton +2, Quinnipiac- Clinton +6, Rasmussen- Giuliani +2
Also based on more recent polling, New Mexico and North Carolina get moved to tossup.
Version: 11
New Map...
Clinton vs. Giuliani
Again, this map is based on the most recent polling that is out at the time and would be indicitive of how I believe the election would turn out if it was being held today. This is based on a two way race and does not factor in the possible effects of a 3rd party pro-life candidate if Giuliani is given the GOP nomination. The only major change made was Florida going to Clinton after the SUSA poll showing a 5% Clinton lead. This follows a poll showing a tie in Florida from American Research. Likewise an average of the two latest polls in Ohio which were from Quinnipiac, Clinton +7 and SUSA, Giuliani +1 gives Clinton a slim lead in Ohio. Also, VA remains in the Democratic column after yet another SUSA poll gave Clinton a 5% lead there. Again, if there is no recent polling, if there is a tie, or conflicting polling such as the case in MO, KY, TN, WV, WI, NH, etc... the state stays in its respective 2004 election result.
Ohio prediction:
2-way (Average-most likely)
Clinton 51%
Giuliani 48%
2-way (Bad day for Dems in OH)
Clinton 48%
Giuliani 51%
2-way (Bad day for GOP in OH- like 2006)
Clinton 53%
Giuliani 46%
3-way
Clinton 50%
Giuliani 41%
Other 9%
Version: 10
So with the recent talk of having a third party candidate I decided to create a new map with a right-wing Conservtive Christian third party candidate.
Clinton/Richardson 48.5%
Giuliani/Thompson 40.5%
Pat Robertson/Ann Coulter 9.2%
Other 1.8%
Hillary wins Ohio before 10:00pm!
Ohio Results:
Clinton 49%
Giuliani 41%
Robertson 8%
Other 2%
Version: 9
Okay here is my new map:
Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani
Basically this map is based on current polling... If there has been a consistent theme of Clinton ahead in a "Red" or "Swing" state like AR, OH, VA, it is switched to Dem. If there is inconsistent polling with a Clinton tie, or slightly ahead, the state stays GOP- ex. MO, FL, WV, KY, TN and since they are historically GOP leaning they stay GOP. On the other hand if there is polling showing Giuliani doing well in particular New England states they have been moved to tossup but since they are historically Democratic, they stay in the Dem column.
A Note out of Ohio's bellwether: Stark County... (for Bonn) Canton Republican Mayor Janet Creighton, Karl Rove's hand picked test experiment in this bellwether county is behind her Democratic opponent Tim Healy by 15%! It's not looking good for the GOP in Stark County in 2007. Creighton had boasted in 2004 that she did not like "multi-millionaires" like John Kerry and John Edwards coming to "her" city. Apparently if the multimillionaires are Republicans they are welcome... Too bad they don't pump any money into Ohio's economy. If Creighton loses in Nov. there will be NO GOP mayors in any of Ohio's major cities... She is/was the last!
Version: 8
Here's a new Map:
This would be the ABSOLUTE BEST Hillary could do and it would be against Romney!
Notes:
1. Most of the Upper South is either tossup going Dem by a slim margin and the Mid/Deep South is lean GOP- Due primarily to the anti-mormon bias on the part of Southern evangelicals.
2. Your traditional "Swing" states such as MO, FL, OH, PA, MI, IA, WI are all tossup or lean Dem, but will go to Hillary by a 5% margin (at least!!!).
3. Your Western states are tossup or lean GOP and go to Romney due to his general strength in Western states against a woman.
4. Hillary takes Ohio 54%-45% w/ minor candidates at <>1% due to anti-mormon bias in Southern Ohio and the general weakness of Ohio's economy. A (55%) margin is probably the furthest to the Dems you could push Ohio! Here are some other Ohio predictions:
Clinton vs. Giuliani 51% to 48%
Clinton vs. Thompson 52.5% to 46.5%
Obama vs. Giuliani 49% to 50%
Obama vs. Thompson 51% to 48%
Obama vs. Romney 53% to 46%
Edwards would win OH by about the same margin as Clinton!
Version: 7
Okay time for a new map. --- Clinton vs. Giuliani or Thompson
I saw an old map of mine was brought out, so I thought I'd make a new map. First let me say this is how I see the Electoral map AT THIS TIME, based on polling that I've seen. So maybe you could say if the "election were held today" this is how I think things would fall... Basically, If there has been consistent polling, by various sources: Rasmussen, Survey USA, Quinnipiac, etc. showing Clinton polling ahead of both Giuliani and Thompson in certain states I've switched them or made appropriate changes.
I made this a Clinton vs. "Giuliani or Thompson" map because the Republican field is increasingly fluid with the various polls showing Giuliani losing ground or Thompson tied or ahead of him, according to Rasmussen. The major changes I made were to Ohio and Virginia. Though there are numerous polls showing Clinton ahead in Kentucky, West Virginia, Florida, and Missouri, I did not include them because they appeared to be either conflicting polls or were very narrow margins for Clinton.
1. Ohio- Sorry guys! I think it is still possible for the GOP to carry Ohio (Giuliani-only) but the probability is looking quite poor for the GOP. There is no way Thompson will carry Ohio! In watching polls from 2000 and 2004, NEVER did ANY democratic candidate have a double digit lead over a Republican in this State!!! Kerry never polled more than 4-6% ahead of Bush- and that was on a RARE occassion of Zogby. For the most part Bush polled ahead by 3-8%, but you are seeing Clinton poll as much as 12% ahead of Thompson in a Quinnipiac poll. That is just too much to ignore for Ohio. Also, if you know anything about Ohio, you know that Southern Ohio(Cincinnati- the conservative part of the state) is culturally and economically similar to Kentucky and West Virginia. What astounds me are polls showing Clinton ahead in KY and WV!-- and it can't be totally irrational to think that if there is a general trend in KY or WV towards Clinton, that the trend wouldn't spill over to Southern Ohio or vice versa, because Southern Ohio is so similar to KY and WV. Ohio is much friendlier to the Dems this time around with a Dem. Governor and Senator... Also the Democrats are targeting (5) House seats here. Finally, two people who are not even on the ballot in Ohio will pull the most weight in voting: George W. Bush, who is very unpopular and Bill Clinton, who is very popular.
2. Virginia. What appears to be consistant is the polling coming out of Virginia showing a slight lead for Clinton vs. Giuliani or Thompson. It can't be a good sign when Rasmussen has Clinton beating them by 2-3%. And though that is not a large lead it is a recurring theme that is occuring after other polling such as that from Survey USA. I admit that I don't know much about Virginia, but I do know that it is trending Democratic with the influx of liberals to the DC suburbs. Mark Warner appears to have a commanding lead in the senate race at this time. It is just too evident that there is strength for Clinton in the the Mason-Dixon line states of MO, KY, WV, and VA--- but the VA polling seems most consistant. I'm not saying that VA is 100% going to flip in 2008 but it is becoming more clear that it has a better chance of going Dem than it ever had before.
I still believe regardless of the situation, its' going to be far from a landslide for either party. I think given the current political climate, a Democratic victory would be "capped" at 359 EV's including everything I have identified plus NV, MO, FL, KY and WV... Likewise, given the current political climate I think a Republican victory would be "capped" at 294 EV's taking OH, VA, WI, IA, and NM from what I have identified.
I firmly believe that the Democrats have the upper hand in this election, because I see momentum in Ohio, which was never evident in 2004. I'm not ruling out a GOP victory, but I don't see it is likely considering the state of the economy, and the state and perception of the war and anti-Bush/Republican climate... Especially in Ohio. And you can't forget "So goes Ohio, so goes the Nation."
Version: 5
Still Based on a Clinton vs. Giuliani map, for the time being, the two front runners. Few changes.
1. Moved CT and NJ to Lean Dem from strong Dem
2. Moved WV to Dem, with polls showing Clinton w/ a solid lead there.
3. Moved CO to leans Rep from Tossup
4. Moved VA, KY, and WV to Tossup from Leans Rep
5. Still keeping OH in Rep column until more polling. Rasmussen G+1, WSJ Tie, SUSA Clinton +3, Still can not understand how Rasmussen has Clinton winning in MO +3, in MI +10, but not in OH?
Version: 4
8-28-07 Recent polls show Edwards stronger nationally than Clinton (Hillary actually trailing Giuliani), but Clinton fairing better against all Republicans (including Giuliani)in swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and Missouri. Confusing polling at this time.
Version: 3
8/24/2007
This map is based on a Clinton-Giuliani ballot, in that at the present time it looks like those will be the candidates. I think it is becoming more clear that though she is considered polarizing and unelectable Hillary Clinton probably has the best chance against a Republican (I'm sure having Bill Clinton as her husband is her best asset). Though I believe it will ultimately be Clinton-Romney or Clinton-Thompson. Rudy Giuliani, who is the best hope for his party, is simply too liberal for the Republican primary voters. Though, with the war and anti-Republican wave at the time I think Hillary can *possibly* very narrowly get by Rudy. If Romney or Thompson are on the Republican ticket, I believe much more of the country becomes fertile ground for the Democrats and a Clinton victory would be more realistic. Though I'm showing a narrow Dem victory, this may just be wishful thinking on my part after two dissapointing elections.
There are so many possible scenarios at this time that it is very difficult to predict correctly. If Hillary chooses Richardson as VP, I believe the West becomes more fertile ground for the Dems. Also, if Mitt Romeny is the Rep. nominee I believe the south/midwest becomes more fertile for the Dems in that your typical southerner/midwesterner is going to find it difficult to vote for a Mormon from Mass. On the Republican side, The best hope that the Republicans have is nominating Giuliani in that it captures those more moderate voters in the NE and Great Lakes where he is still very popular. It just seems highly unlike the Reps would nominate a pro-choice, pro-gay, anti-gun candidate after 8 years of such solid social conservatism. Should the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney, it would be necessary for him to choose a southern evangelical as VP to make up for possible losses in the South- and appeal to the Southern and social conservative votes that George W. Bush carried.
Despite the obvious anti-Repubican tide, the war, and the jump in fund raising on the side of the Dems I think this is going to be another close election, sadly. Simply stated, Hillary is probably one of the most despised women in America by the right wing and is sure to bring out the right-wing to vote against her, but her nomination could also be beneficial because she certainly has high favorability among women and she (and her husband) can mobilize the democratic base. On the other side, the Republican candidates all appear a bit "luke warm" at best to their party. The candidate with the best electibility, Giuliani is certainly not what the Christian-right adores, as they did George W. Bush. And the candidate with the best organization and most money, Mitt Romney is also suspect by the Christian-right in his various social issue position changes and his Mormon religion.
I think the Dems best chances of pick-ups are (in descending order) Arkansas, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and possibly Colorado, Arizona, Virginia, and West Virginia, though that may be pushing it. Certainly states with large hispanic populations such as New Mexico, Nevada, and Florida would be especially fertile with a Dem. ticket of Clinton/Richardson in that Richardson's hispanic heritage would be an asset, with the anti-immigration wave in the Republican party. Richardson also would be popular in the west and possibly south in his endorsement from the NRA. I think the NRA endorsement might "bridge the gap" with some male voters.
I find it interesting that the main map shows Ohio so strongly Democratic. Though my home state elected a Democratic governor and senator in 2006, Hillary Clinton is not popular here and Rudy Giuliani is still thought of as "America's mayor." He would certainly beat her easily here in that the more moderate, diverse, ethnic and unionized area of Northern Ohio can not make up for the extreme social conservatism of the southern part of the state. There simply are not enough votes for Cleveland/Akron and Toledo (all decreasing in population) to offset Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus (all increasing in population). If someone has information to the contrary I would be interested to hear their opinion on Ohio.
Version: 2
Original: Though I'm predicting a Democratic win in 2008 (the odds are certainly in the Dems favor) I do think it is going to be close again, regardless of the Republican's high negatives and lack of adequate fund raising. I think Hillary will dominate the primaries on the Democratic side. I think that though Mr. Giuliani is popular amongst moderates he will not be able to stand up to the far right of his party with his liberal record on abortion, guns and gays. I think Mr. Guiliani could easily beat Mrs. Clinton in a head-to-head match, but after 8 years of extreme social conservatism in the White House the Republican base is not going to settle for less. Clinton will choose Richardson because if his hispanic heritage and moderate/conservative record (including his NRA endorsement). I believe that Mitt Romney with the help of his own financing and is ultimatley going to be the Republican candidate though he is going to have to choose a southern evangelical christian to attract Southern voters, in that a Mormon from Mass. is going to sound less than desirable to them. So, I think ultimately, the ticket is going to be:
Dem: Clinton/Richardson
Rep: Romney/Huckabee
Regardless of the "tide" running against the Reps, putting Clinton on the ticket is a certain gamble, but I think the anti-war/anit-republican sentiment will be strong enough to put her over the top. I think that your typical "Dem states-in the NE and West Coast will remain Democratic as will the traditional Southern and Plains states remain in the Republican column in 2008. (with a few exceptions- possibly???) I think the "swing states" or tossups are going to be Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and this time Arkansas.
I'm willing to bet that the popularity of the Clintons will give Arkansas 6 votes to Hillary. This could possibly open the door to more states along the Mississippi River, but it's going to be an uphill battle with the social conservatives in the Heartland.
Speculating that Hillary chooses Richardson on her ticket I do believe he will help her prospects with two groups: men and hispanics. In that he is a hispanic accompanied with the anti-immigration wave going on in the Repubican party I think this ticket is going to be beneficial to pick up states with large hispanic populations such as Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada. I don't think the tide will be enough to pick up Arizona and Colorado. I think Mr. Richardsons support from the NRA will also resonate well with these Western states.
I think the Midwest swing states will follow the same patterns they did in 2000 and 2004. Though, I do think that Iowa will go back to the Democrats, I do not think that Ohio can go to the Democrats, especially with Hillary Clinton leading the ticket. Though my home state has recently elected a popular Democratic governor and senator, and has very difficult economic problems, the undeniable hate for Mrs. Clinton will allow a Republican to squeak by again by a 1-3% margin. The growing social conservative population in Southern Ohio can easily overtake the dwindling more moderate, ethnic, diverse and unionized areas of Northern Ohio. But I could be wrong and Ohio could surprise me? It did in 2006.
8-24-07. Interesting to see a lot of support dropping for Giuliani in early voting states, but he maintains a slim lead in most states. If he does become the nominee the map changes to what I would see as an almost duplication of 2004 and Reps retain the White House. Also, if the California ballot initiative passes I think it would be incredibly difficult to get a Dem in the White House. Mrs. Clinton would have to sweep PA, OH, and FL. Which I don't think she can do, unless there are more serious problems with the Republicans. I'm not so sure of a Democratic win in 2008 now. I think the Republican slime/money machine is starting to kick in and with the help of their sneaky initiative in CA and I think they got some tricks up their sleaves to keep the White House! Republicans really are the slime of the earth!
2024 President
2020 President
2020 Senate
2018 Senate
2018 Governor
2016 President
2016 Senate
2016 Governor
2014 Senate
2014 Governor
2012 President
2012 Senate
2012 Rep Primary
2010 Senate
2010 Governor
2008 President
2008 Senate
2008 Dem Primary
2008 Rep Primary