Comments History
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hideVersion: 41
NC, FL, IN, MO, NV are the top 5 uncertain states, in that order.
McCain will have a little bounce before THE END and may be able to keep NC (I think MO and IN are already OK for him).
FL will be really hard for Obama.
And VA is THE tipping point state this year, not CO.
Version: 40
OK, NC is really threatened. I put it back in Obama's column.
Version: 39
See my comment on #38.
NC switches to McCain, even if I'm very doubtful about it, because McCain has a small bounce in Gallup and Ras daily trackings.
Version: 38
Unfortunately, no longer any suspense for the national outlook.
But MO, NC, NV, OH, IN are all very, very interesting.
And some uncertainties in MT, ND, GA, even NH and AZ, give us an election a bit more spicy.
Version: 36
OH, FL, MO, NC, NV: who knows for sure.
But the R-word (recession), the increasingly negative MSM against McCain (some late fears and "what if The One doesn't win after all?" questions, probably....), the bad internals from polls (no longer experience or judgement or leadership gaps, bad numbers for McCain and Palin from independents), the far better field organization and GOTV action from the Obama campaign,...
all of this make an Obama victory inevitable, but also threaten a "small landslide" (with IN and GA not very far from the 5 above).
Version: 35
NV, MO, OH, NC, FL: very hard to say....
And beware of IN and GA....
Version: 34
McCain a bit up.
OH and MO are real toss-ups now (I don't believe in ND). NV is not so sure, as well.
Some surprising movements are possible: FL for Obama and OH for McCain, NC for Obama and MO for McCain.
As I have said since almost 6 months, VA is lost for McCain. This will be the real field for defeat.
Version: 33
The final result is quite sure.
But there are still a lot of uncertain state results: NV, MO, IN, OH, NC, FL, even CO, WV.
VA will be THE symbolic state of Obama's win.
I've said it for a long, long time, now.
Version: 30
It can be worse: WV, IN, MT, ND and GA swinging....
But I'm not even sure of this one: NC is not a likely Obama win and I think MO will be kept by McCain.
But let's try with this map a bit.... I'm not updating each day.
Version: 29
NC is really THE toss-up now.
VA is now leaning Obama.
Version: 28
NC in (Leip's) red again !
Version: 27
NC....red....blue....red....
Even OH and NV haven't completely swung.
I think apparent "moderateness" from Obama in debates and a Palin counter-effect there make FL a lean Obama state, maybe even more than NV.
Version: 25
I just wanted to try this one:
CO, VA and FL lost,
OH and NV saved.
Not very likely, but who knows ?
With daily trackings being what they are for the next 3-4 days, I will return to my previous prediction, with Obama grasping OH and NV.
Version: 23
Obama's electoral situation is "fundamentally strong" now.
Not many game-changers in sight, as the financial crisis will keep on taking front-pages from time to time.
Sure, there can be an international crisis. But are we sure McCain would react better than Obama in front of a sceptic or confrontational MSM ?
The VP debate won't produce gains for McCain. And in the other 2 debates (which occur very shortly after and one after the other), Obama has only to keep his advantage: not very difficult.
NV is a bit bizarre in state polls, as it seems to resist better than VA, FL, OH or even NC and IN.
FL , NC and IN are really worrying.
Version: 20
A pity, this wonderful political year won't be a tight and suspenseful race until the end.
At least, I will be able to sleep a bit on Nov.5 morning and won't be obliged to wait for the last precincts in NM and CO: it would have been about noon in France !
MCain is abit up in my map but still clearly beaten.
IN, OH, NC, NV, FL are real toss-ups now.
WV, MO, NH also, but are more "leaners".
VA and CO, tipping-point states, are unfortunately lost for McCain.
Bill Clinton is out campaigning for McCain, but even that is no longer put on front page by the MSM: a sign thaht whatever McCain tries to do, the MSM won't let him come back.
Version: 19
McCain is right: this Paulson bailout is bad (again pouring billions, like Greenspan did after the Internet bubble by making it possible to have huge debts quite easily, like Bush did with tax cuts, Iraq, agriculture).
McCain is politically wrong: he should have proposed a detailed plan before and, first, secretly; and he should have proposed a town hall meeting instead of the debate.
Obama is wrong: he isn't able to propose anything real and just lets Reid, Pelosi, Frank dealing with problems they barely understand.
Obama is politically right: he does hardly anything, just seems to be above the fray and answers (even vaguely) to MSM questions (for the MSM, answering them, chatting with them IS doing something, IS acting).
As a result, McCain is going to be beaten quite clearly.
A pity, this wonderful political year won't be a tight and suspenseful race until the end.
At least, I will be able to sleep a bit on Nov.5 morning and won't be obliged to wait for the last precincts in NM and CO: it would have been about noon in France !
Version: 18
MSM are outraged, like frightened maiden....
Whatever the seriousness and the (in)sincerety of McCain's move, the way it is covered by MSM will have a very negative impact.
So far, we could say it's over, as 40 days aren't enough to reverse the trend.
My only regret is that it won't be suspenseful until the end.
Well I will be able to sleep a bit on Nov, 5th early morning.
McCain-Romney 08 !
Version: 16
The problem is that McCain needs a higher level in the national vote to revert the trend in Colorado and Virginia.
Apart from Nevada, other states appear to be quite solid, even Florida, Indiana and Ohio (and, of course, Montana and Missouri).
But how hard will it be to grasp Michigan, PA, NH, Wisconsin !
Version: 15
OK, back to reality....
McCain isn't the favorite.
Colorado and Virginia will be very hard to keep.
Since before this last week-end, even if I was already pessimistic, I've been hoping that McCain will retain a lead in national polls, but it's time to say it's over.
Optimism lasted, what ? one week ? at most....
Good reasons (Bush's wrong economic policy and deeply wrong human and administrative management)
and bad reasons (MSM and their love for this Non-African-American fashion politician, MSM and their deep desire of revenge against the GOP and against McCain's only coup during this campaign: Palin)
will doom this fantastic bid from Mac.
A pity.
And also a pity in one year, when disapointment will be huge towards Obama and all his empty promises.
GOPers, please do not believe this comment and GO ON fighting and campaigning for McCain and Palin !
Version: 14
All of us will have a heart attack before bloody first Tuesday of November....
It's really very hard to be pretty sure of Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada, Michigan, Florida, New Hampshire, Indiana, Wisconsin (my top ten), and even Pennsylvania, Missouri, Minnesota, North Carolina.
Version: 13
What about this one ?
Obama winning CO without winning NM ? The latest polls from those states are a bit disturbing...
And it might be possible that less urban and less "Californian" NM would be bluer (I mean, Leip's blue) than CO.
I wanted to try this map....
Version: 12
Just slightly modified confidence's rate for some states:
NH and WI from lean Dem to toss-ups
Missouri from toss-up to lean GOP
Iowa from strong Dem to lean Dem
and ND from strong GOP to lean GOP (not very coherent with other changes but it seems as if ND is decidedly not SD....).
What a fantastic electoral year !
In the remaining 2 months, everything is really possible. It's very fluid.
Palin has climbed too high after having been put too low.
McCain may become over-confident.
Obama is probably making a mistake by trying not to make personal attacks.
Obama hasn't grasped that he is no longer the NEWEST THING in town.
Version: 11
After Palin's speech.
As I've said before, she strengthens the ticket in NV, CO, Montana, even Missouri.
But she does no good in NH, VA and (eastern) PA (the last 2 are more and more North Eastern states, electorally speaking). And maybe she's not so good in Florida, where she can energized conservative base in the panhandle, but may make some Miami or even Tampa voters afraid).
As for Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, I'm not so sure she can help.
So, unfortunately, due to VA, I keep a Dem map....
Version: 10
I change again.... Call it the POST-POST-PALIN MAP.
I'm afraid this will be something like this, Palin just preventing Nevada, Missouri and NC to swing and saving Montana, GA and LA from being threatened.
But she isn't enough (or she is "too much") for CO and NM not to swing.
For a long time, I've thought NH, Iowa, PA and... VA are lost for McCain.
And it seems FOR THE MOMENT (let's wait for a post-post-post Palin map) that Michigan, OH, IN and FL are OK for an Obama-Biden ticket that looks more "reasonable".
I really want to be wrong and I hope GOP won't regret Pawlenty, quite conservative and who may have help a bit in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio.
Version: 9
OK, time to include Palin and to be a bit bullish:
McCain-Palin's western side helps to keep CO, Nevada. McCain-Palin's maverick image helps in Michigan and....WI.
No other possibility since I think NH is lost (all the more with a conservative and far-western Palin),
and PA too (more and more a traditional Dem state, and electors from big cities, universities, etc),
and NM as well (too many Latinos and new residents, plus Richardson).
And as I always want to find maps with McCain winning despite a loss in VA....
Of course, it's a bit surprising, but there's always some surprises, in each election....
Version: 8
OK, I'm turning to a more realistic prediction.
Obama-Biden vs McCain-Romney, which explains a GOP Colorado.
Virginia is the major cause for worrying....
All the more that Michigan seems too far to win.
(these were my first predictions, a nice map with Virginia in red and Michigan in blue: a slight change, without harming McCain).
Version: 7
Yeah, fine.
Even with Obama-Biden, I can find a quite realistic map that gives a GOP win
Romney or even Pawlenty as McCain's running mate).
What do you think of that ?
Sure, Oregon is surprising.... but I wanted to turn Florida to Dems.
But if you prefer Oregon and Michigan in Dems column, then Florida must stay Republican and all is well for McCain.
Version: 6
OK, I need to recognize McCain is in a difficult situation.
To obtain this result, we need a Obama-Kaine vs McCain-Romney race, rather than McCain-Pawlenty (because of Nevada and Michigan...).
Why Dave Leip's didn't let us post 3 maps:
real prediction,
feared prediction (Obama wins in Michigan, Ohio, VA, Indiana, NC, Missouri, Alaska, Montana, ND, Nevada.... even GA and Arizona with Janet as running mate)
wished prediction (McCain wins in NH, PA, VA and.... that's all.... since Wisconsin, even Colorado and NM are out of reach)
Version: 5
Some states shift...
I don't want a national toss-up, so PA is for McCain and Missouri for Obama, but, in fact, it would be 269-269 with McCain winning Missouri and Obama winning PA.
Version: 4
Again, Obama-Kaine vs McCain-Pawlenty
Version: 3
Now, I've dropped my scenario with Clinton (who would win Ohio and PA, but lose Virginia, Missouri, Wisconsin, NH, even Oregon) and I've turned to a McCain-Obama race.
Let's say a McCain-Pawlenty vs Obama-Kaine contest.
Very close, but interesting... In "old" Midwest, McCain is more competitive. He's also able to retain South West. But Obama is stronger in Missouri and Virginia.
Despite Missouri, Obama is narrowly defeated... and blames Clinton for not having supported him in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, New Mexico.
(updated: just confidence level in some states, but no change in results)
Version: 2
Now, I've dropped my scenario with Clinton (who would win Ohio and PA, but lose Virginia, Missouri, Wisconsin, NH, even Oregon) and I've turned to a McCain-Obama race.
Let's say a McCain-Pawlenty vs Obama-Kaine contest.
Very close, but interesting... In "old" Midwest, McCain is more competitive. He's also able to retain South West. But Obama is stronger in Missouri and Virginia.
Despite Missouri, Obama is narrowly defeated... and blames Clinton for not having supported him in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, New Mexico.
Version: 1
McCain/Pawlenty vs Clinton/Strickland
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