PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - benconstine (D-VA) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:101

Prediction Map
benconstine MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
benconstine MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem349
 
Rep189
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
Tos84
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+80+97000202252+97
Rep000-80-97233189-97
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
97484342
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 96

This map operates on the assumption that the economy continues to tank, resulting in an Obama landslide.


Version: 89

McCain really made a bad choice with Palin, and it'll show.


Version: 77

Obama/Easley v. McCain/Sanford


Version: 73

Switched Ohio and Missouri.


Version: 69

This would be a best case for Obama, assuming Hillary drops out gracefully, and Iraq and the economy go way down in the next few months.


Version: 63

Obama v. McCain


Version: 62

This would be a Goldwater-type landslide loss for McCain. I doubt it will happen, but this is a what-if.


Version: 61

Obama v. McCain


Version: 59

Clinton/Bayh v. Romney/Barbour


Version: 58

Clinton/Bayh v. McCain/Hutchison


Version: 57

Clinton v. Romney v. Bloomberg

This is a best case scenario for Bloomberg, in which everything goes bad for Clinton and Romney.


Version: 56

Clinton/Bayh v. McCain/Huckabee


Version: 55

Clinton/Richardson: 49% PV, 270 EV
McCain/Huckabee: 48% PV, 268 EV


Version: 54

Clinton/Richardson: 53% PV, 355 EV
Huckabee/Romney: 46% PV, 183 EV


Version: 53

This is the type of Presidential landslide that could bring about my Senate predictions.


Version: 52

Obama/Easely: 51% PV, 349 EV
Huckabee/Ridge: 47% PV, 189 EV


Version: 51

Clinton/Bayh: 42% PV, 375 EV
Romney/Barbour: 39% PV, 120 EV
Bloomberg/Nunn: 19% PV, 43 EV


Version: 49

Since my last map was the best for the Democrats, this is my best for the GOP:

McCain v. Richardson


Version: 48

This is the best case scenario for the Democrats:

Clinton v. Romney


Version: 47

Clinton/Easely: 53% PV, 363 EV
Huckabee/Romney: 47% PV, 175 EV


Version: 46

Clinton/Bayh: 41% PV, 372 EV
Huckabee/Romney: 36% PV, 116 EV
Bloomberg/Hagel: 23% PV, 50 EV


Version: 45

Obama/Easely: 51% PV, 333 EV
Huckabee/Pawlenty: 47% PV, 205 EV
Others: 2% PV, 0 EV


Version: 44

Clinton/Richardson: 52% PV, 348 EV
Huckabee/Ridge: 47% PV, 190 EV


Version: 43

Clinton/Easely: 41% PV, 364 EV
Giuliani/Riley: 37% PV, 141 EV
Bloomberg/Lieberman: 22% PV, 33 EV


Version: 42

Clinton/Easely: 52.37% PV, 341 EV
Huckabee/Pawlenty: 47.63% PV, 197 EV


Version: 41

2008 GOP Primaries:

Red <90: Huckabee (10 states)
Red <40: Romney (11 states)
Blue <90: Thompson (2 states)
Blue <40: Giuliani (24 states)
Green <90: McCain (3 states)

Giuliani wins the nomination. Democratic predictions will come soon.


Version: 40

Clinton/Richardson: 52% PV, 302 EV
McCain/Barbour: 48% PV, 236 EV


Version: 37

Clinton/Bayh: 55% PV, 379 EV
Giuliani/Barbour: 45% PV, 159 EV


Version: 36

Clinton/Richardson: 53% PV, 317 EV
McCain/Perdue: 47% PV, 221 EV


Version: 35

Clinton/Richardson: 54% PV, 357 EV
Giuliani/Barbour: 46% PV, 181 EV


Version: 34

Clinton/Easely: 57.5% PV, 383 EV
Romney/Barbour: 42.5% PV, 155 EV


Version: 33

I had done an earlier map on the best the GOP could hope for, and so this is the best the Democrats can hope for. This map is their strongest candidate (Clinton) versus the weakest Republican (Thompson).


Version: 32

These are my predictions for the 2008 Democratic Nomination:
Clinton: red <40, 44 states; wins nomination
Edwards: green <90, 3 states
Obama: blue <40, 2 states
Richardson: green <30, 1 state
My GOP predictions can be found in version 31.


Version: 31

These are my predictions for the 2008 GOP Nomination:
Giuliani: Red <40-26 states; wins nomination
Romney: Blue <40-9 states
Thompson: Green <90-10 states
McCain: Green <30-3 states
Huckabee: Red <90-2 states

My Democratic predicitions will be coming in the next two or three days.


Version: 30

This is, in my opinion, the best the GOP could hope for in 2008. Giuliani is probably the candidate who would pull this in, but his opponent would have to be a weak link like Richardson.


Version: 29

Clinton/Easely: 58% PV, 385 EV
Romney/Riley: 42% PV, 153 EV


Version: 28

Clinton/Easely: 53% PV, 398 EV
Giuliani/Romney: 28% PV, 112 EV
Huckabee/Brownback: 19% PV, 28 EV


Version: 27

Maybe my logic is faulty, but I think that due to the high approval ratings of their governors, Kansas and Oklahoma aren't a sure thing for the GOP. I still have them as lean GOP, but in a landslide, I think that could change.


Version: 26

Clinton/Bayh: 58% PV, 382 EV
Romney/Pawlenty: 42% PV, 156 EV


Version: 25

Clinton/Richardson: 57% PV, 368 EV
Romney/Perdue: 43% PV, 170 EV


Version: 24

Clinton/Richardson: 53% PV, 359 EV
Giuliani/Thompson: 47% PV, 179 EV


Version: 23

This is THE absolute best case scenario for the Democrats. The GOP would have to screw up big time for this to happen, but this is not outside the realm of possibility.


Version: 22

Clinton/Vilsack: 53% PV, 363 EV
Romney/Huckabee: 46% PV, 175 EV


Version: 21

Clinton/Richardson: 44% PV, 343 EV
Giuliani/Pawlenty: 30% PV, 129 EV
Brownback/Musgrave: 26% PV, 66 EV


Version: 20

Clinton/Richardson: 53% PV, 359 EV
Romney/Huckabee: 47% PV, 179 EV


Version: 19

Clinton/Easely: 57% PV, 404 EV
Giuliani/Pawlenty: 43% PV, 134 EV


Version: 18

Clinton/Richardson: 56% PV, 378 EV
Romney/Riley: 44% PV, 160 EV


Version: 17

Clinton/Richardson (Democratic): 41% PV, 384 EV
Giuliani/Romney (Republican): 36% PV, 102 EV
Huckabee/Brownback (Family Values): 23% PV, 52 EV


Version: 16

Clinton/Richardson (D): 54% PV, 313 EV
Romney/Thompson (R): 45% PV, 225 EV


Version: 15

Clinton/Richardson: 38% PV, 317 EV
Giuliani/Romney: 32% PV, 113 EV
Brownback/Huckabee: 30% PV, 108 EV

This map might make not any sense, and if it doesn't, please tell me.


Version: 14

Clinton/Richardson (D): 37% PV, 275 EV
Giuliani/Romney (R): 34% PV, 178 EV
Gingrich/Santorum (FV) 29% PV, 85 EV

In this scenario, I assume that, because they perceive both Clinton and Giuliani as unacceptable, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum run on a Family Values platform. This allows them to win most of the South, with a few exceptions. I only marked the Southern states as tossups between the GOP and Family Values. The Democrats have no shot there.


Version: 13

Clinton v. Thompson


Version: 12

This is map of Hillary v. Romney. I think there will be an anti-Mormon backlash in some areas of the country, and that those voters will just stay home, making it slightly closer than it is usually.


Version: 9

Clinton v. Giuliani. Rudy loses a lot of support in the South, and I think a good number of Religous Right voters might just stay home.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 239
P 2022 Senate 34/35 26/35 60/70 85.7% pie 5 6 48T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 4 6 104T272
P 2021 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 73 48T118
P 2020 President 53/56 40/56 93/112 83.0% pie 13 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 22/35 53/70 75.7% pie 11 8 137T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 29 51T293
P 2018 Senate 33/35 26/35 59/70 84.3% pie 3 1 4T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 2 9 94T372
P 2016 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 8 1 440T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 15/34 45/68 66.2% pie 7 1 277T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 5/12 15/24 62.5% pie 2 1 47T279
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 5 72T112
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 9 0 21T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 16/36 45/72 62.5% pie 4 1 145T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 96 17T153
P 2012 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 9 0 77T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 16/33 47/66 71.2% pie 9 1 164T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 3 1 5T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 9/52 51/104 49.0% pie 8 - 69T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 243 37T106
P 2010 Senate 36/37 25/37 61/74 82.4% pie 33 0 34T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 23/37 58/74 78.4% pie 15 1 74T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 3 5 56T103
P 2008 President 52/56 45/56 97/112 86.6% pie 101 1 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 39 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 122 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 20/52 62/104 59.6% pie 30 - 36T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 40/49 11/49 51/98 52.0% pie 26 - 47T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 1/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 27 102T167
Aggregate Predictions 780/861 494/861 1274/1722 74.0% pie


Back to 2008 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved