Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:13

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	318
Rep	220
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	291
Rep	163
Ind	0
Tos	84

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+6	0	+66	0	0	0	20	2	252	+66
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-66	25	3	220	-66
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
97	48	42	4	3

Analysis

At this point, I don't care and just want this over with. Seriously. Whatever!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 10

Three <40 predictions from me. Don't see that so often.

Version: 8

Metholodgy changed. The result: not much of anything.

Version: 7

- I have no idea why Illinois was a lean.
- North Dakota as toss-up will likely end up ridiculous, but whatever.
- I expect the peripheral South states to come down some, but it's early.
- I expect Obama to probably do better than this in the end.

Version: 6

Updated with latest polling information. This would very likely be a PV win with an EV loss...we'll see how this plays out. Very early.

Mostly based on polling, with a few editorial "enhancements" (New Jersey and North Dakota especially).

Version: 5

Crappy, quick map for a Clinton vs. McCain match-up.

Emphasis on quick. And emphasis on crappy.

Version: 4

Still a Giuliani/Clinton race, since that's where the polling's at, even if I think it's more likely the race will be something else.

There are a hell of a lot of toss-ups on this map. In case you hadn't noticed.

Version: 3

This is going to look hilarious in a few months, I'm sure.

Version: 2

Presumptive Giuliani vs. Clinton match-up. Worth laughing at in two years and little else.

Version: 1

Playing the odds, for now. ;)

Version History

Member Comments

By: Alcon (D-WA) 2008-11-03 @ 19:38:26
This will be wrong. I already know Florida and Ohio will be wrong, but I am too lazy to change it. This won't be a year for #1-ing score again. oh well!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	52/56	45/56	97/112	86.6%	13	1	55	T	1,505
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	4	160	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	14	0	20	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	30/36	65/72	90.3%	17	1	1	T	312
2004 President	54/56	48/56	102/112	91.1%	7	2	1	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	177/184	150/184	327/368	88.9%

Links

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